\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Core view
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 284.93 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%.
The revenue growth remained stable, but the profit margin remained stable. The company’s carry forward rhythm is stable. In 2021, the operating revenue maintained a double-digit growth, but the profitability decreased. The net interest rate attributable to the parent decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 9.6% year-on-year. The decline in profit margin was mainly affected by industry regulation. The gross profit margin of development projects generally declined, driving the comprehensive gross profit margin to decline by 5.8 percentage points to 26.8%.
The sales scale rose against the trend, and the proportion of land acquisition rights and interests rebounded. According to Kerui data, in 2021, the sales growth rate of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the company’s sales increased against the market, realizing a sales amount of 534.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, rising one more place in the ranking list and jumping to the fourth place. The sales area reached 33.33 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the average sales price increased steadily. The company added 145 new projects throughout the year, with a total capacity of 27.22 million square meters, and the corresponding total investment was 185.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. Although the company’s investment intensity decreased year-on-year, it still ranks in the forefront among the leading real estate enterprises. The equity proportion of new soil storage was 72%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year.
Financial stability was maintained and ecological business was promoted in an orderly manner. In 2021, the company realized a return amount of 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of 93.8%, ranking high in the industry, and maintained positive cash flow from operating activities for four consecutive years. The scale of interest bearing liabilities of the company is 338.2 billion yuan, and the comprehensive financing cost is about 4.46%, a decrease of 31bp compared with the end of last year. All indicators meet the medium and green enterprise standard of “three red lines”. In addition, the current regulatory policies focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire the projects of real estate enterprises in danger. The company may have a better performance in the open market and the M & a market, and is expected to achieve scale expansion beyond expectations. The company’s ecological business was promoted in an orderly manner, with poly property’s area under management reaching 465 million square meters, and the annual operating revenue was 10.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%. Poly commerce has opened 35 shopping centers with an opening area of 2.475 million square meters. The company actively implemented the national strategy and continued to layout the rental market. At the end of the reporting period, the company rented 43 apartment projects in the battalion commander, covering core cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Maintain the buy rating and raise the target price to 22.77 yuan (the original target price was 16.18 yuan). According to the annual report, we lowered the forecast of the company’s settlement revenue growth and settlement gross profit margin, adjusted the EPS forecast value from 2022 to 2024 to 2.53/2.74/3.03 yuan (the original forecast value from 2022 to 2023 was 2.82/3.07 yuan), the average valuation of comparable companies in 2022 was 9x, and the corresponding target price was 22.77 yuan.
Risk tips
Sales in the real estate market were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected.
