\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
The company released the first quarterly report for 22 years. During the reporting period, the revenue was 4.66 billion, yoy + 16%, qoq-20%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 730 million, yoy + 25%, QoQ + 1%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 600 million, yoy + 7%, QoQ + 58%; The performance is in line with expectations.
It is speculated that 22q1 glass fiber benefits are generally stable, the blade is still under pressure, and the contribution of diaphragm is stable and rising
In terms of glass fiber business: the price of glass fiber roving in the industry is roughly the same as that in 21q4, slightly higher than that in 21q1 (the company's leading product of glass fiber business, according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price per ton of 22q1 alkali free roving is 6075 yuan, qoq-36 yuan / - 1%, yoy + 231 yuan / + 4%); The company's glass fiber product portfolio is richer, the products with higher added value account for a relatively high proportion, and the contribution of electronic yarn and electronic cloth. It is speculated that the average price of glass fiber products of 22q1 company is basically the same or slightly lower month on month. 22q1 the cost of main raw materials may be roughly flat month on month. It is speculated that the net profit per ton of fiberglass products of the company in the same period is basically flat or slightly lower month on month. There is a certain increase in the production capacity of glass fiber at the end of 21qy / 21qy, or there is a certain decrease in the inventory of glass fiber at the end of 21qy. On the whole, we speculate that the glass fiber performance of 22q1 company may decrease slightly month on month and is expected to increase positively year-on-year.
In terms of blade business: Q1 is the off-season of downstream installation, and the production and sales materials of blades have dropped significantly compared with the month on month (21q1 continues the previous rush installation base of wind power or is also high), superimposed with the previous industrial price reduction and the high price of raw materials such as wind power yarn, the net profit per material unit is still at a low level. The benefit contribution of 22q1 material blade is limited, which decreases year-on-year.
Diaphragm business: new production lines have been put into operation successively, running in and climbing (21h2 Hunan production base 17-20 and Tengzhou phase II 5-6 advanced production capacity have all been released). It is speculated that the unit net profit is stable and positive, and the contribution of 22q1 diaphragm to the overall benefit is expected to increase month on month.
Continue to be optimistic about the transformation prospect of the company's new material platform, maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating, and support the transformation prospect of the company to the new material platform: 1) the production capacity of glass fiber 21fy reached 1.2 million tons at the end of the year, with steady expansion, complete product portfolio and continuously strengthened competitiveness; 2) The blade business has formed an annual production capacity of 10GW + wind power blades, started the pace of global layout, maintained the intensity of new product research and development (21fy launched a variety of large blade products such as si85.8/si84/si9x-100), and fully covered the blade needs of mainstream fan platforms of strategic customers; 3) The final production capacity of lithium film 21fy exceeds 1 billion square meters, and the production capacity under construction and preparation is about 2.64 billion square meters. It is expected that the second phase of 22fy Inner Mongolia will be completed and put into operation, with firm production expansion and cost optimization. Maintain the previous performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 37.4/44.8/5.51 billion, yoy + 11% / 20% / 23%, maintain the target PE of 20x22, maintain the target price of 44.60 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: glass fiber supply exceeds expectations; The installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; Lithium film customer development and cost reduction are lower than expected; And China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) asset integration landing uncertainty
