\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 169 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) )
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022
The annual income is RMB 202.9 billion (RMB 1.9 billion-rmb 1.4 billion) (RMB 1.9 billion + RMB 1.9 billion) and the non parent income is RMB 202.4 billion (RMB 1.9 billion-rmb 1.5 billion), and the non parent income is RMB 2.0 billion (RMB 2.9 billion-rmb 1.0 billion + RMB 1.0 billion) and deducted. 2022q1: the income is 1.36 billion (YoY + 22%), the parent is 340 million (YoY + 8.8%), and the deduction is 300 million (YoY + 7.1%)
The results of the annual report have been predicted before, and 22q1 slightly exceeded the previous expectation. In addition, the company announced an annual dividend rate of 10%.
Revenue side: Q1 continues the month on month trend, and Q2 can be expected to reverse export sales
21. The whole year: the company’s revenue + 29%, including volume + 19% and price + 8%. As a medium and high-end brand, the average price base of the company is high. The price increase in 2021 is limited, but the sales volume has led the industry.
Split domestic and export sales quarterly. We expect:
21q4: private brand revenue is about yoy + 40%, including domestic yoy + 150% and export yoy + 10 ~ 15%.
22q1: private brand revenue is about yoy + 25%, including domestic yoy + 100% and export yoy + 5 ~ 10%.
Domestic sales: Q1 maintains a high growth trend driven by G10. And looking ahead to Q2, the short-term storage advantage of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) in the 4000 + price band after the listing of the new g10s is expected to continue to drive the domestic sales performance.
Export sales: due to the weak performance of Q1 due to its high base, Q2 will be saved with new catalysts such as s7maxv and dyad overseas. Superimposed on the low impact base of last year’s Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) event, it is expected to usher in a reversal.
Profit side: Q1 significantly improved month on month, better than expected
21q4: gross profit margin 44.7%, net profit margin 19.2% (yoy-11pct),
The impact of the gross margin deposit standard is -11.7pct year-on-year from the perspective of gross sales difference. Among them, we expect the impact of raw materials to be about 3PCT, and the core impact is still the increase of sales expenses to the decline of net profit margin.
22q1: gross profit margin 47.5% (yoy-1.4pct under the same caliber), net profit margin 25.2% (yoy-3.1pct). Gross profit margin 22q1 is expected to still have a negative impact on raw materials close to 3PCT. However, due to the continuous improvement of the company’s product structure, the gross profit margin was hedged and raised. From the perspective of expense rate, the expense rate during 21q1 under the same caliber is + 3.7pct, of which the sales expense rate is + 4.4pct year-on-year. On the trend of the company, the marketing investment continues to increase to build the brand, but the sales expense rate should be significantly reduced in Q1 off-season. In addition, the company’s income tax expense has been optimized compared with Q1 last year.
The company promotes equity incentive: low price, wide coverage and low goal, mainly for binding talents
The company issued restricted stock equity incentive in 2022.
Incentive objects: no more than 479 people, accounting for 50% of the total number of the company, with a wide range of employees.
Grant price: 50 yuan (the current price of the company is 570.15 yuan).
Source: private placement, no more than 0.37% of the total share capital.
Pragmatic objectives: Based on the revenue of 21 years, the revenue growth rate in 22-25 years shall not be less than 10% / 14% / 18% / 22%.
Amortization expense: less impact. From 22 to 26 years, RMB 42 million, RMB 47 million, RMB 25 million, RMB 12 million and RMB 03 million are amortized respectively. It is estimated that the impact on the current year’s rate will not exceed 0.6%.
In terms of equity incentive, the company continues the incentive style of 2020, with low performance objectives and wide coverage. Although the award price is low, the rhythm is relatively small, and it has been used for many times to control expenses, with the main purpose of widely binding the company’s technical talents. In the same period, it can be seen that in 2022, the company’s R & D personnel expanded to 555 (YoY + 45%), and the subsequent R & D efficiency is expected to be significantly improved.
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
The negative performance has been fully reflected, and the follow-up will focus on the performance of Q2 new products after listing. Ideally, it is expected to achieve export reversal + net interest rate stability. At the same time, in the short term, the margin of shipping and exchange rate has improved, and the pressure on the company’s profit margin will also improve. Considering that Q1’s profit margin performance is better than expected, the profit forecast is slightly adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 is 1.76 billion and 2.26 billion (the previous value is 1.71 billion and 2.18 billion), corresponding to pe22x and 17x. Maintain buy rating.
Risk warning: supply chain risks such as shipping / core shortage, industry demand is lower than expected, and the cost investment is higher than expected
