\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 160 Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) )
The company's performance in 2021 increased by 1063% year-on-year, the industry margin continued to improve, and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%, of which the main business revenue was 14.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1063%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 851 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1395% and a month on month increase of 451%. In addition, the company accrued asset impairment losses of 312 million yuan in the whole year, and 289 million yuan in Q4, which had a certain impact on the company's profits. As the company's performance is much higher than expected, according to the market judgment, we raised the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.977 (+ 6.16), 3.069 (+ 10.38) and 3.618 billion, and the EPS will be RMB 0.73 (+ 0.23), 1.14 (+ 0.39) and 1.34 / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 15.7, 10.1 and 8.6 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The volume and price of the company's main products are rising, and the trend recovery is approaching
In 2021, the average prices of refrigerants, fluoropolymers and fluorochemical raw materials of the company were 19220, 57235 and 4531 yuan / ton respectively (excluding tax, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of + 41.6%, + 39.0% and + 80.91% respectively; The output was 453000, 38000 and 808000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.6%, + 31.5% and - 3.5% respectively; The capacity utilization rates were 75.6%, 90.74% and 84.87% respectively. Among them, the output and external sales volume of HFCS refrigerant in 2021 were 287000 tons and 214000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.6% and + 3.2% respectively; Among them, the price of HFCS refrigerant of Q4 company was + 76.2% year-on-year and + 18.1% month on month. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the price of main raw materials of the company has increased significantly, and the profit of the company as a fluorine chlorine integration enterprise has increased significantly. We believe that as the benchmark period of HFCS refrigerant quota has entered the last year, the market's bullish expectation is more and more clear, and the opening of the trend market may be approaching.
The company maintains high capital expenditure and plans to invest in many projects in 2022
In 2022, the company plans to invest 2.354 billion yuan and arrange 63 fixed asset investment projects (including 9 early-stage projects). The projects expected to be completed in 2022 include: 55000 tons of AHF, 1000 tons of giant core coolant, 8000 tons of PTFE, 5000 tons of HFP, 7000 tons of VDF monomer + 6500 tons of PVDF, 150000 tons of monochloromethane, 300000 tons of sodium hypochlorite, a total of 100000 tons of caustic soda, 89000 tons of chlorine and 28 million Nm3 / year of hydrogen, 35000 tons of carbon hydrogen refrigerant, 40000 tons of isopropanol, 50000 tons of n-propanol, etc., which are expected to be put into operation in different periods of the year.
Risk tips: safety production risk, policy change risk, sluggish terminal consumption, etc.
