\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 185.34%, which was slightly higher than the upper limit of performance forecast and slightly higher than the market expectation. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 130356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.34%. Deduct non net profit of 13.442 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215.2%; The gross profit margin was 26.28%, year-on-year -1.48pct; The net interest rate was 13.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.57pct. The actual performance deviated from the forecast upper limit, slightly exceeding market expectations.
In the past 21 years, the company’s power battery shipment volume was 117gwh, a significant increase of 163%. The company’s power battery business achieved a revenue of 91.491 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 132%, accounting for 70.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 8pct, and the battery gross profit margin in 21 years was 22%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56 PCT. In the past 21 years, the capacity of battery system (including energy storage) was 170.39 GWH, and the output was 162.3 GWH (including energy storage), with a year-on-year increase of 213.87%, and the capacity utilization rate was as high as 95%; The sales volume was 133.41 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 184.82%, of which the sales volume of power battery was about 117 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 163%. Structurally, the company’s installed capacity in China in 21 years is 81gwh; Export contribution 20gwh; It is estimated that the contribution of vehicle enterprises in preparing goods in advance will be 15gwh.
The company’s energy storage battery market share ranks first, and the shipment volume is expected to increase significantly in 22 years. In the 21st year, the company’s energy storage battery revenue was 13.624 billion yuan, an increase of 601% at the same time, and the shipment volume was about 16.7gwh, an increase of 599% year-on-year, accounting for about 20% of the global market. We expect the company’s products to be mainly exported, accounting for 60-70%. We estimate that the average energy storage price of the company in 21 years is 0.92 yuan / wh, unchanged month on month; The gross profit margin was 28.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5pct. Q4 company’s energy storage revenue is 7.5 billion, ring + 425%, shipment volume is 8.8gwh, ring + 305%; The average price was 0.97 yuan / wh, and the gross profit margin of Q4 fell by 12pct month on month, which was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of energy storage shipments in China with low profitability and the increase of overseas export costs. We expect that the company’s energy storage shipment is expected to reach 50gwh in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 200%
The report quality is as good as ever, and the inventory and lithium battery materials are abundant. In 21 years, the company’s expense rate was 11.3%, the same as -2.26pct, of which the R & D expense rate remained 5.9%, down 1.51pct; The quality assurance deposit increased by 2.9 billion, which is still calculated and withdrawn according to 3% of power income. In 21 years, investment income and other income contributed 1.2 billion / 1.7 billion respectively, but the company made a significant provision for impairment loss of 2 billion in the whole year, and the accounting policy is rigorous. The net cash flow from operating activities was 42.9 billion, an increase of 133% at the same time. In addition, the company’s ending inventory was 40.2 billion yuan, up + 204% from the beginning of the year, and raw materials were 7.97 billion yuan, up + 255% from the beginning of the year. We expect that the company’s low price and abundant inventory reserves can support the growth of 22q1. Deferred income at the end of the period was 12.1 billion, a significant increase of 209% over the beginning of the year
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of epidemic factors, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 28.6/43/59.9 billion (the original forecast of 30.2/46.3 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023), an increase of 80% / 50% / 39%, the corresponding PE is 33 / 22 / 16x, 55x for 22 years, 676 yuan for the target price, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the competition intensifies
