\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 21. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.4% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, with a decrease of 85.0%. The net cash flow from operating activities was a net outflow of 420 million yuan. The gross profit margin in a single quarter was 23.4%, with a decrease of 8.9pct and a month on month decrease of 14.8pct.
Key points supporting rating
Many factors caused the decline of performance in the first quarter: the company is the leader of cement in eastern Guangdong. Affected by the rainy weather, the cement sales were under pressure in the first quarter, resulting in the decline of profit due to the rise of coal cost and the floating loss of securities investment. In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, with a decrease of 85.0%.
The rainy weather suppresses the cement sales volume, and the price increase is less than the cost increase: in the first quarter of 2022, the number of precipitation days in Guangdong Province increased, and the total precipitation increased. According to wheata data, the precipitation days in eastern Guangdong and Dawan district where the company is located have increased by 15-30 days compared with previous years, and the rainy weather has a certain impact on the downstream construction. In the first quarter, the company sold 3.485 million tons of cement, a decrease of 25.4% at the same time. We calculated that the unit price of cement per ton was 352.6 yuan, an increase of 10.2% at the same time; The cost per ton was 266.1 yuan, an increase of 26.7% at the same time; The gross profit per ton was 86.5 yuan, with a decrease of 21.3%. In the first quarter, the price of coal rose faster than that of products, suppressing the level of gross profit per ton. Compared with the end of 2021, the coal price once increased by 740 yuan / ton, up as high as 70.5%.
The coal price has fallen, and the performance is expected to make up: since April, the coal price has gradually fallen. On April 20, the national standing committee set the main energy status of coal, and the new production capacity may be 300 million tons within the year, and the coal price is expected to return to a reasonable range. In addition, as the temperature warms up, the cement demand may be supported by the development of infrastructure projects, and the company's performance is expected to make up.
Valuation
The company's performance was lower than expected. Considering the decline of coal price and the possibility of performance replenishment, we maintained the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.75 billion yuan, 9.18 billion yuan and 9.95 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.08 billion yuan, 2.23 billion yuan and 2.45 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.75, 1.87 and 2.06 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Coal prices continued to rise, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was lower than expected, real estate construction continued to be depressed, and the number of rainy days increased.
