\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 2.807 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 389 million yuan
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 2.807 billion yuan (year-on-year – 3.7%), a net profit attributable to the parent of 389 million yuan (year-on-year – 24.4%), a gross profit margin of 34.6% (year-on-year – 1.8pcts) and a net profit margin of 15.2% (year-on-year – 4.5pcts). In 2021q4, the revenue was 762 million yuan (YoY – 18.3%, mom + 29.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 117 million yuan (YoY – 39.8%, mom + 180.5%). In 2022q1, the revenue was 736 million yuan (YoY – 2.8%, Mom – 3.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan (YoY – 24.7%, Mom – 21.5%). The decline of the company’s profitability in 2021 is mainly due to the lack of core and production reduction of key customers and the rise in the price of raw materials; And the company’s R & D expenses and management expenses have increased. We believe that customer + product expansion and two wheel drive help the company grow. Considering the impact of the epidemic since 2022, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 4.90/7.02 (original value of 5.21 / 7.21) / 952 million yuan, EPS will be 1.23/1.75/2.38 yuan / share, corresponding to the current PE price of 34.5/24.1/17.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The proportion of Volkswagen has decreased steadily, reducing the dependence on key customers
In 2021, the proportion of the company’s revenue from Volkswagen decreased to 69.7% from 74.3% in 2020. The sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen / FAW Volkswagen / global Volkswagen in 2021q4 was + 23.1% / + 56.7% / + 5.8% month on month, and the sales volume in 2022q1 was – 15.4% / – 11.5% / – 12.6% month on month. The month on month growth rate of the company’s revenue was better than that of Volkswagen, reflecting that the company was gradually reducing its dependence on major customers.
New products + new customers, contribute new increment
The fixed-point of the company’s new energy vehicle related products increased steadily, with a revenue of 158 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 135.8%. The company expects that there will be 55 new product conversion projects in 2022, including 23 light controls, 5 chassis controllers, 9 intelligent actuators, 10 USB and 8 National VI emission related projects of commercial vehicles. The strategic product chassis controller project has also made a breakthrough, extending from DCC to ASC and chassis domain, and has won more than ten fixed points from customers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely and Xiaopeng. In 2021, the company’s new customers expanded well and entered the Japanese customer markets such as GAC Toyota and Suzuki, laying the foundation for entering the global supply system such as Toyota.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated, the mitigation of core shortage is less than expected, and the sales volume of passenger cars is declining.
