\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 816 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) )
Key investment points
Category side: the big home strategy is getting better and better, and beds, functions and customization are increasing rapidly. According to categories, in 2021, sofa revenue was 9.268 billion (+ 44.51%, of which functional sofas contributed greatly to growth), soft beds and mattresses were 3.338 billion (+ 42.75%, with higher growth rate of domestic sales), customized home was 660 million (+ 32.43%, of which banerqi contracted, but it is estimated that home customization increased by more than 70%), and integrated products (accessories) were 3.140 billion (+ 41.13%), Information technology service revenue was 930 million (+ 48.65%). Bed, function and customization are three high potential categories. 2022q1 is expected to continue the growth momentum and contribute more than the overall growth of the company.
Channel side: stores expand rapidly, and the large store model expands smoothly, driving the growth of the same store
(1) from the perspective of series stores, we estimate that the company is expected to open more than 1300 stores in 2021, exceeding the task. Among them, the opening speed of 21q4 stores is faster than expected, mainly due to the large number of stores opened by tianxipai, natuz and bed. In 2021, the company's domestic sales revenue was 10.712 billion (+ 40.05%), of which we estimate that the growth of new stores and the same store contributed about 18-20% respectively. Behind the strong same store growth is the improvement of the linkage rate between categories and the increase of customer unit value after the rationalization of the large store model. In the next 22 years, we will continue to promote the plan of opening 8001000 stores.
(2) in terms of store status, the company continues to optimize the model of large stores and comprehensive stores and reduce the form of single stores. We estimate that there will be 500600 large stores of the company in 2021 (including more than 100 customized integrated stores), while there will be more than 300 at the end of 20. The expansion speed is fast. The dealers return to the current cycle for 1-2 years and have a large profit scale, so they have a strong willingness to open stores. In 2022q1, it is estimated that the number of large stores has exceeded 600, and the proportion of large stores in the total number of physical stores has increased to double digits.
Multi brand operation: natuz, lazboy and Tianxi school go hand in hand
The company is committed to building Gu Jia into an international brand. After natuzi Edison acquired in 18 years optimizes the management and empowerment, the Chinese Channel & marketing has made high-intensity investment and achieved more than 50% growth; The light fashion brand tianxipai is positioned to sink the market and focus on ecological leather. It is expected to achieve 300 million revenue in 21 years (only about 100 million in 20 years), and the number of stores has exceeded 600; The cooperative brand lazboy functional sofa also achieved high growth in line with the consumption upgrading trend. Meanwhile, since 2022, rolfbenz has also been under the general management of Li Donglai, and its operation is expected to improve.
Domestic and foreign sales split: domestic sales in March did not change the disturbance of the epidemic, and the growth of foreign trade was better than expected. 1) domestic trade: domestic trade in 21q4 continued to grow at a high base. Logistics delivery in 22q1 was affected by the epidemic in March, and some acceptance will be postponed to Q2, but it is expected to achieve a growth of 10-20% and strong toughness. Household demand is rigid, and the delayed demand will be fulfilled. In April, Gu Jia performed well in other domestic trade market terminals except the sealed area, and is still firmly optimistic about the company's Q2 and the growth of domestic sales throughout the year.
2) foreign trade: in 2021, the company's export revenue was 6.918 billion (+ 49%, excluding the part of ocean freight payment is expected to be + 40%), and 21q4 and 22q1 are expected to maintain a rapid growth of 20-30%, which is better than the market expectation. Thanks to the company's efforts to expand the export channels of family mattresses (mainly Xibao in the past), it has made a great contribution to growth. In the organizational structure adjustment completed by the company in 2021, the general manager of Europe, Asia and Africa is in charge of the whole value chain of export marketing and manufacturing. At the same time, the company has invested 1.037 billion new plants in Mexico and started production in mid-2023. It is expected that the share and income of Gu family in the export market will continue to increase steadily in the future.
The operation is gradually retailed, and the organizational ability continues to improve
1) reform of regional retail operation center: empower dealers and lead the decision-making process, improve efficiency and increase the reach and portrait of retail end consumers. In 2021, domestic trade will serve 1.37 million households (+ 36%) and family care (maintenance) will serve 170000 households (+ 30%), and the accumulated user assets (online) will exceed 3 million.
2) the laying of store information system is completed: by the end of the 21st century, the retail distribution system will cover 100% of stores across the country and master the real-time retail trends. In 2021, the turnover of digital enabled stores accounted for 19% (+ 10PCT). Meanwhile, the importance of online business strategy is improved, and new layout of tiktok and other new channels is accelerated.
2) improvement of organizational capacity: the largest organizational change in history will be completed in 2021, forming three central structures of "value center, empowerment center and service center"; The team is younger. The average age of senior managers is 38.6 years old and the average age of middle-level managers is 34.8 years old; In 2021, the number of young talents and key institutions signing contracts accounted for 45%, and 283 expert talents and cadres were introduced.
The price increase was smooth, the gross profit margin of 21q4-22q1 actually increased, and the advance collection decreased during the epidemic
1) the gross profit margin was 28.87% (apparent decrease of 6.34pct) in 21 years, which was mainly due to the adjustment of the cost of main business according to the standard of transportation expenses, and the actual decrease of 1.1% (due to the rise in the price of raw materials + new changes in product structure, customization and other new businesses, the gross profit margin is relatively low). After the successful implementation of the new round of 5-8pct domestic price increase measures after the national day, the gross profit margin of the company is expected to improve in 21q4 and 22q1, and the profitability is expected to be better.
2) the period expense rate is 18.57% in 21 years (the apparent decrease is 6.14pct), of which the sales expense rate is 14.74% (- 4.95pct, if the freight caliber is restored + 0.29pct), and the investment in advertising promotion fees, employee salaries and warehousing service fees is increased; The ratio of management + R & D expenses decreased by 0.54 PCT to 3.44% year-on-year, and the scale effect was released; The financial expense ratio decreased by 0.65pct to 0.39% year-on-year, which is due to the decrease of interest expenses. The overall trend of expense rate of 22q1 company is similar to that of 21 years.
3) the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 9.07% in 21 years (the impact of 20-year reduction impairment is 10.62%), which is about 60 million dividends of Evergrande in 20 years; 2021q1 was 9.76% (-0.42pct), mainly due to the increase in the proportion of export sales in the business structure.
4) the net operating cash flow was 2.041 billion (- 6.38%) in 21 years and - 530 million in 22q1 (21 Q1 was + 133 million), which was mainly due to the company's increased support to dealers during the epidemic in the first quarter and the extension of the payment collection cycle, resulting in the advance collection on the account of 1.392 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 180 million and a month on month decrease of 1 billion. At the end of the year, the inventory was 2.441 billion yuan (+ 30.4%), and 21q1 was 2.132 billion yuan (year-on-year + 26.6%).
Profit forecast and valuation
With the gradual development of big home strategy, the trend of big home integration store and e-commerce channel props is upward, and the category integration effect of the company is enhanced. We are optimistic that the company will increase its share in the long term. It is estimated that the company will realize revenue of 22.4182726033.065 billion yuan respectively in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 22.22% / 21.60% / 21.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.054/25.09/3.042 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23.40% / 22.17% / 21.23%. The current market value corresponds to the PE of 22-24 years, which are 17.87x/14.63x/12.07x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: channel construction fails to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeds expectations
