Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, we can see the weakness at a glance. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of trading, the stock index fluctuated upward, even turned red for a time, then rose and fell, and weakened continuously; In the afternoon, the securities sector rose sharply, prompting the intraday rebound of the index, but the strength and sustainability were weak, and the index fell down again. On the whole, the whole day showed a pulsed downward pattern.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, at present, the market panic is beginning to diffuse, there is no obvious resistance on the early stage platform of the index, and there is serious blood loss in small and medium market value varieties. Operationally since the market has not stabilized and has returned to a new downward channel, investors can still keep low or empty positions to wait and see, and wait for the market to stabilize obviously before subsequent operations .
Dongguan securities also pointed out that on Thursday, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated all day and continued to be weak. The Shanghai index approached the early low point, the market sentiment was low, and the profit-making effect was very poor, but the northward capital showed a slight net inflow trend .
From a technical point of view, Guosheng Securities believes that the Shanghai index has started to bottom twice, and the Shenzhen index has hit a new low this year. However, the overall valuation of a shares has entered a relatively low range, the opportunity is greater than the risk, and it is likely that there will still be a structural market . In terms of operation, the index has been adjusted in a wide range for 2 consecutive days, and the volume can follow the amplification, which obviously gushes out more throwing pressure sectors. However, the continuous decline is easy to cause the selling pressure to fail. If the deviation rate of the superimposed 5-day line is too large, it will easily lead to a wave of oversold rebound of the index
Overall, the agency further analyzed that should not be overly bearish at present, and can choose another opportunity to deal with it according to the rebound strength in the subsequent rebound market we can focus on the power point of the national "steady growth" policy, and choose the sectors closely related to people's livelihood such as food, clothing, housing and transportation for low absorption.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that will still need a strong boost from external forces to reverse the situation in the future. It is suggested that investors pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external factors . It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term, and the gem is more likely to fluctuate in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Rongwei Securities pointed out that comprehensively judged that the second bottom of the market was mainly affected by the international situation and the expected interest rate increase of the United States, and the internal risk of the market was small . In addition, the general decline situation is difficult to be sustained, so it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic. Pay attention to avoiding high valuation varieties and allocating undervalued targets on bargain hunting, pay attention to the bottom opportunities of pre increase in annual report and first quarter report and high red targets .
. Compared with several rounds of Chinese epidemic impact in history, 2022 has been the most severe level since March 2020. The epidemic impact is deeper, the clearance on the supply side is deeper, the supply chain is gradually restored from suspension, the steady growth of real estate is expected to exert force, and the subsequent prevention and control radius is gradually reduced. It is recommended to pay attention to the consumption recovery opportunities of "epidemic damaged chain", and recommend the allocation of social services / retail benefiting from the reduction of epidemic prevention radius, and optional consumption in the real estate to-C chain, such as household appliances.
In the macro aspect, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that under the background of high commodity prices and repeated epidemic situation in China, the pressure on the performance of China's manufacturing industry has further increased. At the same time, the negative factors at home and abroad have not been completely cleared, the repair will take time, and it is vulnerable to periodic impact in this process. Maintaining the previous judgment, the market is still in the bottom grinding stage. At this stage, it is recommended to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the recovery expectation after epidemic is taking shape. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the recovery of supply chains across the country .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the cost performance advantage of the steady growth sector had not ended before the economy improved significantly (far from fashion) or the growth target was confirmed to be abandoned. The growth sector focuses on tracking and paying attention to the inflection point of US bond yield. Once the US bond yield starts the periodic downward inflection point, the decline of US stocks will stop and recover, and the growth sector is expected to usher in the opportunity of oversold rebound. The interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in early 5 may will be an important observation time window .
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that the current market is in a period of rapid rotation and should be configured in a balanced manner, focusing on three main lines and two major themes : Main Line 1: the introduction of consumption promotion policies and the gradual easing of the epidemic in some regions, and consumption is expected to continue to welcome phased valuation restoration, focusing on the valuation restoration of food and beverage, medicine and biology, The price rise of mandatory consumer goods (planting industry, chemical fertilizer, dairy products and condiments) and the recovery of service travel chain "rush" related opportunities.
Main line 2: the chain of steady growth is not over yet. We pay attention to opportunities such as building materials, building decoration, steel, cement, real estate chain and banks.
Main line 3: the scenery should be long-term and optimistic about the medium and long-term configuration value of the growth style. At present, the valuation of electronics and other industries has been at an absolute low level. In terms of theme, it is suggested to allocate around the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Bohai Securities mentioned that the judgment of the medium and long-term market bottom of A-Shares remains unchanged configuration should be patient. Most of the short-term "stable growth" sectors have been at a high level in recent five years, and risks are gradually accumulating. Therefore, caution should be maintained . Investors can tap opportunities for performance exceeding expectations around the first quarterly report. For the medium and long term, after the economy stabilizes, the growth sector is still expected to return to the main line, and the long-term allocation value will be more prominent.
