As a small emerging species, folding screen evolved and iterated in the dispute, but with the maturity of the upstream supply chain, folding screen began to appear an industrial inflection point.
So far, in addition to apple, mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers such as Samsung, Huawei, oppo, glory and Xiaomi have entered the folding machine market. Under the condition of weak overall growth of the mobile phone market, the folding machine positioning in the high-end market has become a subdivision track for manufacturers to quickly layout.
DSCC, a research organization, predicts that the global sales volume of folding screen mobile phones will rise to 3.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 480% and a month on month increase of 215%. The shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones is expected to increase to 17.5 million in 2022. According to public data, as of January 10, oppo’s first folding screen mobile phone oppofindn had more than 1 million reservations across the network, while the previously released Samsung Z flip3 had been on sale for 39 days, reaching 700000 sales.
In the view of the organization, with the collective entry of Android mobile phones, the prices of core devices in the folding screen industry chain such as hinges, UTG glass, liquid metal, MIM structural parts and screens are expected to further decline, driving the price of folding screen mobile phones to the mass market.
breakthrough in domestic supply chain
On January 10, glory released its first high-end folding flagship glory Magic V, starting from 9999 yuan. During the speech, Zhao Ming, CEO of glory, directly dropped the 10000 yuan folding screen mobile phone to the ground to prove the fall resistance of the “multi curved nano microcrystalline” outer screen.
In an interview on the same day, Zhao Ming told reporters that in terms of self-developed technology, glory has invested extremely huge R & D funds on the folding screen. “At the beginning of last year, glory began planning to start the development of folding screen before the supply problem was completely solved.”
The reporter inquired about the app information and found that since the beginning of last year, glory has intensively applied for patents related to folding screen, including “shooting control method and electronic equipment based on folding screen”.
However, in addition to the manufacturer’s self-developed technology, the improvement of parts yield in the folding screen supply chain and the reduction of related material costs have become the key to the outbreak of this round of folding screen mobile phone market. At present, saide semiconductor, Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Huijing display and other manufacturers announced the R & D progress or plan of UTG glass project last year, while BOE and Visionox Technology Inc(002387) have become the mainstream screen suppliers of domestic folding screen mobile phones.
Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi consulting, told the first financial reporter that folding screen is an inevitable trend in the medium and long term. Not only folding, the special-shaped state of intelligent terminal, including folding (including double folding, triple folding, etc.), crimping, pulling, etc., will become the inevitable direction of OLED technology in the future. “For the upstream panel plants such as BOE, Tianma, TCL Huaxing and Visionox Technology Inc(002387) , in the case of excess supply of flexible capacity, folding products mean that the panel demand area will be larger and larger, which can better help the panel plants to reduce production capacity. Therefore, each plan is more positive.”
In addition, Li Yaqin believes that the technology of folding screen still depends on the solutions and supply capacity of suppliers. In recent years, China’s investment in ultra-thin glass is also increasing. With the landing and mass production of new local factories, the cost of folding screen will drop rapidly.
The reporter noted that in March last year, China new materials company Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) announced a capital increase of about 1.025 billion for the construction of UTG (ultra-thin electronic touch glass) phase II project, with a planned production capacity of 15 million pieces / year, Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) also said in its previous announcement that the production capacity of UTG has reached 300000 pieces / month. In addition to the above three companies, China, including Huijing display, Guoao technology, Wg Tech (Jiang Xi) Co.Ltd(603773) Hemei optics, sushi technology and Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(000413) , has also planned the construction of UTG glass production line.
The industry estimates that the annual production capacity of China’s UTG glass from 2022 to 2023 will be more than 150 million pieces. From the perspective of substitutability, downstream terminal manufacturers can find localized substitutes in the fields of folding screen UTG glass, MIM components and folding screen rotating shaft.
Android folding machine hits the tens of millions of market
From the early taste to the main force, with the gradual maturity of the industrial chain and the promotion of terminal manufacturers, the Android folding screen mobile phone market is opening up, and the price continues to break through below 10000 yuan, from the general price of 15000 yuan to 7000 yuan.
According to the forecast of counterpoint research on the shipment of foldable smart phones, from the global market, the shipment of foldable smart phones will be about 9 million in 2021, an increase of more than 300% compared with 2020. Samsung occupies a dominant position with a market share of more than 88%. It is expected that the shipment of foldable smart phones will increase 10 times by 2023.
From the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones that have been released, the first batch of oppo folding machine find n is 30000 units, and the whole network has been sold out at present. In addition, compared with other flagship high-end mobile phones, the premium ability of folding screen in the channel has begun to appear.
The reporter noted that the premium amount of find n on the second-hand trading platform ranges from 100 yuan to 1000 yuan. Huawei’s pocket supply is also tight, while glory Magic V has businesses providing “acting shooting” and other services. Zhao Ming said, “not long after the press conference, I have received countless messages urging (folding) and will step up the preparation later.”
Liu zuohu, senior vice president of oppo, previously told reporters that the starting price of oppo find n is 7699 yuan, hoping that the folding screen can really change from early taste to common use. “The research and development of this mobile phone has gone through four years and six versions. The pricing is to reduce the use threshold of the folding screen. After the growth of the supply chain, it can also drive a virtuous circle of the whole industry.”
Liu zuohu believes that the development and innovation of the smartphone industry have slowed down in the past two years. If we can really break through the boundary of screen size, the use efficiency and interactive experience of smart phones will be subverted again.
Zhao Ming told reporters that folding products are a strategic part of the glory impact on the high-end market. Making a folding screen is equivalent to the difficulty of making a series of flagship machines. “Why? Because the folding machine represents a breakthrough in some basic and systematic capabilities. This breakthrough is more helpful for entering a new field under the glory. It is equivalent to solving the problem from 0 to 1, and the problem from 1 to 2 and to 3 will become much easier.”
According to analysts’ forecasts, the price of folding screen mobile phones is likely to break 5000 yuan this year, and the cost will continue to decline. Li Yaqin believes that after three years of development, folding screen mobile phones are promoting the technological upgrading of the upstream and midstream supply chain, gradually promoting the renewal of materials and other fields through market-oriented iteration, so as to reduce the cost of core devices, feed the downstream market and promote the market outbreak.
However, from the current development of folding screen mobile phones, there are still shortcomings in mobile phone weight, battery life, screen creases and application ecology. Mobile phone manufacturers still need to overcome market problems through continuous technical investment.
(source: First Finance)
