In the first November of 2021, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile production and sales reached a new high, with a cumulative output of more than 3 million vehicles, a sales volume of nearly 3 million vehicles, and a market penetration rate of 12.7%. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47%.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, the "last mile" problem faced by the industry - the disposal of retired power batteries is also gradually moving towards the front of the stage.
According to the data of China Automotive Technology Research Center, in 2020, China's total decommissioned power batteries exceeded 200000 tons, and the market scale reached 10 billion yuan; By 2025, the scale of China's waste power battery recycling market may exceed 40 billion yuan; By 2030, the recycling of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries will become a 100 billion market.
The recycling of batteries is a "big problem" in the future? Or will it become a new blue ocean?
On the one hand, the prices of nickel, cobalt, lithium and other metals in the upstream raw materials of power batteries fluctuated sharply, exceeding market expectations. For example, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate has jumped from 50000 yuan / ton in early 2021 to 290000 yuan / ton in the near future, with an increase of 480%. The highest quotation even exceeded 300000 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt has reached a new high in recent three years.
On the other hand, the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand has led to the layout of power battery recycling in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. In addition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) large investment in battery recovery, LG energy, SK innovation, Samsung SDI, Tesla, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other enterprises entered the market in the second half of 2021.
The reporter of the daily economic news found that at present, the power battery recycling market is extremely hot, the battery recycling price has repeatedly reached new highs, "one price a day" and "the discount coefficient even hangs upside down"
From the neglected "junk collection" industry, it has now become a hot "pastry". In the face of the upcoming first wave of power battery retirement, are relevant recycling enterprises really ready?
there is no money to make at the front end of recycling, so the discount coefficient is upside down
Since 2021, the prices of lithium, cobalt and nickel as raw materials of power batteries have risen sharply. The price of lithium carbonate, a raw material of lithium, has increased nearly five times compared with that at the beginning of the year. The price of cobalt is just around the corner, and the price of nickel has reached a new high in recent seven years.
Zhejiang Huayou Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Huayou recycling) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and a power battery recycling enterprise. Bao Wei, general manager of the company, told the daily economic news that the more metal prices rise, the more attention people pay to retired power batteries and the higher the recycling price of power batteries.
The booming power battery recycling market is not difficult to imagine. "Many buyers flock to the batteries produced by each enterprise." Bao Wei said that with the growth of metal prices, battery recycling prices have repeatedly reached new highs.
"Everyone is very popular. The recycling price is the same as seafood, one price a day." District Hancheng, general manager and senior engineer of Ganzhou haopeng Technology Co., Ltd. ( Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) holding subsidiary), also told the reporter of daily economic news that some manufacturers are expected to raise prices in the future and will report the prices in the next few days in advance.
Waste battery recycling is usually carried out by bidding, and how fierce the competition is. The person in charge of a recycling enterprise told the daily economic news that sometimes there are only two or three points of profit when bidding. As long as there is no loss, in order to maintain customers or strive for some quantity, we sometimes have to strive for orders. "Normally, we have to make at least 8 ~ 10 points of profit."
In extreme cases, the discount coefficient of recycling even hangs upside down.
Zhao Xiaoyong, chairman of Beijing saidemai Resource Reuse Research Institute Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as saidemai), said in an interview with the reporter of daily economic news that taking ternary lithium battery as an example, the discount coefficient previously recovered according to cobalt and nickel content may be 70% and 80%, which has reached more than 90% in 2021, or even more than 100% upside down.
Discount coefficient is the pricing method for power battery recycling enterprises to purchase retired batteries. For example, when a reporter buys a battery with a cobalt content of 300000 tons or a retired metal battery, he will know how much the price of the battery will be discounted when he buys it from a non-ferrous enterprise in Shanghai.
Once the discount coefficient hangs upside down, it means that "these battery manufacturers have no money from the front end". Zhao Xiaoyong said that there should be profits at each stage of normal battery recycling, which is equivalent to no profits at this stage. We can only rely on the back-end profits to subsidize the front-end, because only in this way can we get the source of goods.
Nevertheless, Zhao Xiaoyong said that the overall recycling volume in 2021 is still significantly more than that of the previous year. In addition, the amount of information about recycling (such as telling enterprises where there are waste batteries) is also significantly more than that of the previous year.
In an interview with the daily economic news, he ye, Secretary General of the strategic alliance for technological innovation of the resource forced recycling industry, frankly said that the battery recycling market has always been a seller's market, because the climax of battery scrapping has not yet come. At present, there are mainly retired batteries in some special industries such as bus companies and tourism, and there are not many retired batteries in the passenger car market.
In Bao Wei's view, the market is booming due to three reasons: first, the lack of raw materials and the subsequent sharp rise in prices; Second, power battery recycling is a hot industry, with more and more enterprises entering, resulting in intensified competition; Third, some enterprises take battery recycling as a strategic layout and do not care about short-term revenue.
On the other hand, the industrial and commercial registration data also show that the power battery recycling market is hot. 2020 is the peak of the registration of power battery recycling enterprises, with 2579 new enterprises throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 253.3%; In the first half of 2021, 9435 new companies were registered, with a year-on-year increase of 2611.2%.
Under the background of capital entering the bureau one after another, the production capacity of head enterprises is also expanding. Bao Wei disclosed that the company is currently building a new retired battery processing base in Guangxi.
Haopeng technology is one of the earliest national high-tech enterprises engaged in recycling, processing and utilization of waste secondary batteries in China. Seoul District also told reporters, "we are also trying to expand."
flows to the problem specification channel, and less than 30% of retired batteries can enter
Zhao Xiaoyong believes that the retirement peak of retired batteries has not yet come, but due to the "overheating" of the industry, many enterprises have entered the Bureau, resulting in a situation of more and less power battery recycling market to a great extent. "In addition, many retired batteries have been diverted by informal enterprises."
On December 23, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the list of the third batch of enterprises that meet the industry standard conditions for comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles. It is commonly known as the "white list" for power battery recycling in the industry. At present, a total of 47 enterprises have been shortlisted.
The so-called informal enterprises in the industry generally refer to some small workshops without business licenses and enterprises that have been registered and approved by the industry and commerce but the recycling process is not standardized, such as environmental protection control does not comply with the management regulations of the Ministry of industry and information technology.
Haopeng technology, where Seoul District is located, is the second batch of "white list" enterprises. He told reporters that the recovery cost of regular enterprises is much higher than that of small workshops. For example, retired batteries belong to class 9 dangerous goods and need to use special transport vehicles. In addition, in terms of their own control, they also need to be equipped with various environmental protection and safety facilities, but most small workshops do not have such qualifications.
Therefore, the competition for the supply of retired batteries is so fierce that in addition to the competition between formal enterprises, there is also the competition between formal and informal enterprises and traders. Saidemai is also one of the white list enterprises. Zhao Xiaoyong said, "informal enterprises have lower costs, and they can pay higher prices than us."
This means that the destination of retired batteries is determined by the market, in other words, "the higher the price".
He ye said that according to statistics, only about 30000 tons of batteries can be collected from the whole industry through standardized channels, but at least 100000 tons flow to non-standard channels. By 2020, China has decommissioned more than 200000 tons of power batteries.
The two enterprises under Huayou recycling are listed in the first and second batch of white list enterprises respectively. Bao Wei admitted that China's new energy vehicles began to develop from buses, taxis and logistics vehicles. In this process, some vehicle factories and battery factories closed down, their batteries and vehicles were out of control, and some products entered the grey industrial chain.
In 2017, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 777000, which was regarded by Bao Wei as a turning point in the development of new energy vehicles. It was also in this year that he entered the field of power battery recycling. Bao Wei said frankly that the most intuitive feeling in recent years is that the industry is gradually developing towards sunshine and transparency, and is becoming more and more standardized.
"The most obvious point is that the passenger car enterprises and bus companies we cooperate with are gradually entering the compliance auction process." Bao Wei said that with the large increase of passenger cars, it indicates that the industry will become more and more standardized in the future. Of course, this will be guaranteed through more stringent policies.
Seoul District also expressed similar views. He believes that with the promotion of the "double carbon" goal and the gradual popularization of carbon tracking technology, it will effectively curb the flow of retired batteries to informal channels. He believes that the industry will gradually become orderly from disorder through policy guidelines and calls of industry associations.
As a member of the core revision group of the management measures for the recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries, Zhao Xiaoyong revealed that the new management measures have added a lot of pragmatic contents, encouraged normal trade exchanges between formal enterprises and restricted exchanges between formal enterprises and informal enterprises.
"Because many products from the recycling process of informal enterprises actually flow to formal enterprises. If the market is cut off, they will not survive." He said.
the echelon utilization information is unclear, recycling enterprises or receiving vehicle enterprise data
When the actual capacity of a power battery decays below 80% of the rated capacity, it should be retired in theory. At present, there are two recycling modes for retired power batteries, namely echelon utilization and recycling. The former is to disassemble and reorganize the retired power batteries and apply them to energy storage and other fields that do not require high battery energy density; Recycling is to extract expensive metal materials such as cobalt, nickel and lithium from scrapped batteries.
Specific to the two modes of power battery recycling, it also presents a process from "savage growth" to gradual technological progress.
Many interviewees told the reporter of the daily economic news that generally speaking, as long as the retired batteries with echelon utilization value will go through echelon utilization first, and "eat clean" in other fields as much as possible before doing material regeneration or physical repair.
"The field of echelon utilization is very wide." Zhao Xiaoyong said that it is mainly aimed at some markets that replace lead-acid batteries, such as low-speed electric vehicles, mobile rechargeable motor vehicles, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) light pole lamps, electric forklifts, roof energy storage of small factories, etc.
The reporter learned in the interview that echelon utilization is still in the process of exploring application model, business model and security model. The echelon utilization of batteries mainly enters the fields of standby power, low-speed vehicles and so on, while some non-conforming retired batteries will bring certain risks after entering the echelon utilization.
Bao Wei believes that the echelon utilization of batteries is divided into two stages. The first stage is to select compliant batteries from many retired batteries for echelon utilization; In the second stage, as the technology R & D system matures, more retired batteries can be used, and different types and different states of batteries can be used in one system. In this stage, it may take 2-3 years to improve the system before it can have commercial value.
In his opinion, there are two main reasons restricting the promotion of echelon utilization: first, the batteries retired now are mainly those in 2015 / 2016, and the quality is generally poor; Second, the technology needs to be continuously developed, including the detection technology of retired batteries, the product building technology of echelon utilization, and the construction of operation platform to ensure the economy of batteries. Finally, safety monitoring should be done to ensure the safe use and recyclability of retired batteries.
Seoul District admits that there are some difficulties in echelon utilization. First, the detection of retired batteries faces the BMS (battery management system) barrier of car enterprises; The second is how to disassemble more safely and quickly when barriers cannot be broken down.
He explained that the higher cost of echelon utilization is the disassembly cost and the detection cost. When getting the battery pack for echelon utilization, based on technical confidentiality, the recycling enterprise cannot read the internal information and communication protocol of the battery.
"If car enterprises can open some data with recycling enterprises and establish an overall evaluation model and data model, recycling enterprises can more quickly identify the life cycle, battery performance and other information of retired batteries, and greatly reduce the echelon utilization cost." District Seoul said that in addition, if the modular echelon utilization of the whole battery pack can be achieved, the disassembly and testing costs can be saved.
Bao Wei lamented that data is the core secret of vehicle enterprises, and it is normal for them not to open. "In fact, there has been a breakthrough. Back in 2018, others will not talk to you about it. Now we have begun to talk about how we can do it." Bao Wei revealed that the company has signed a contract with a car enterprise, which can use the intellectual property rights of car enterprises to jointly operate echelon utilization, "this has taken a very important step."
He said that with the improvement of power battery quality and longer service life, coupled with the promotion of power change mode, the possibility of echelon battery will be greater and higher, and the proportion will be higher and higher.
technical route "fire and wet method", linkage to improve the efficiency of the industrial chain
What is the development stage of recycling? What other problems need to be solved?
Zhao Xiaoyong told reporters that there are two types of recycling methods: one is the traditional metallurgical process, including pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy, in order to refine valuable metals such as cobalt, nickel, lithium and manganese in the battery.
The other is the physicochemical recycling process being done by saidemai, that is, the battery is separated and the positive and negative materials are repaired directly. This method has a shorter process and is more environmentally friendly. "There may be biological methods in the future, which are still in the laboratory stage."
At present, China mainly adopts traditional hydrometallurgy process. In the interview, the reporter learned that the main process of retired battery recovery and regeneration is divided into three stages:
The first stage is the physical disassembly of the battery pack, some to the module and some to the battery cell; In the second stage, the module or cell is torn up, and then the positive powder and negative powder are screened out through gravity separation and magnetic separation (usually referring to the material selection method of mineral impurities) to form black powder (a mixture of positive powder and negative powder); The third stage is called hydrometallurgy, which adds acid-base solution to extract metal elements.
"China's hydrometallurgy process is relatively mature, better than overseas, and the metal recovery rate is also relatively high." District Seoul told reporters that in the first stage, however, the automatic disassembly from battery pack to module or cell still needs to be improved.
Bao Wei explained that there are many kinds of battery packs. At present, they are still mainly disassembled manually. In the future, they will be gradually transformed into a combination of labor and equipment. Finally, they hope to realize full automation. "Battery disassembly is a reverse manufacturing, which is sometimes much more difficult than forward manufacturing, because it needs to improve the process and equipment level of reverse manufacturing, and even develop special equipment."
In the second stage, what needs to be improved is how to make environmental protection better. There is still a lot of room for development in this regard.
Zhao Xiaoyong mentioned that because the battery needs to be burned at low temperature in the disassembly process, harmful gases will be generated. Acid and alkali should be added to the back end for strong stimulation, which may produce waste acid, waste alkali and a large amount of waste residue containing acid and alkali. If these things are not handled properly, they are easy to pollute the environment.
"The third stage of hydrometallurgy has been relatively mature. Of course, the industry is still exploring some advanced technologies in terms of cost control." District Seoul said that, especially in terms of environmental protection control, we also put forward some short process processes in the R & D process, which are the development direction of the industry.
For example, fire process is mostly used in Europe and America, and wet process is traditionally used in China. Now fire wet process linkage is also used in the industry, which can make the industrial chain shorter, the extraction rate higher and produce less waste residue.
Does the improvement of metal extraction rate mean that recycling can alleviate the shortage of raw materials and resources of power batteries to a great extent?
In this regard, Bao Wei believes that the proportion of renewable resources obtained through decommissioned batteries within five years is still very small for the supplement of raw materials, because the development speed of battery capacity is far faster than that of resources obtained through decommissioned batteries.
For example, the recovered batteries are at least five or six years ago, while the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid-2015 were about 300000. The annual cumulative output of new energy vehicles had exceeded 3 million by November 2021. This also means that less than 10% of the renewable resources can be supplemented in six years, and most of them were lithium iron phosphate batteries six years ago.
Although there are still many aspects to improve, Bao Wei frankly said, "what others see is difficulties, what I see is that the industry has solved many problems."
He introduced that he had just started recycling in 2017. Up to now, the industry has developed from lack of interest to many enterprises and scientific research institutions to engage in research in this field, which has been a great progress.
mode exploration, enterprise linkage, industrial chain closed-loop cooperation, and exploration
Although the industry is making progress, can enterprises make money when a large number of enterprises enter the market, resulting in "more monks and less soldiers"?
In Zhao Xiaoyong's view, at present, recycling enterprises are facing supply problems. The total amount of retired batteries has exceeded 200000 tons, but because the total amount is relatively scattered, the amount to manufacturers may not be so large, so the output investment is not particularly ideal.
Zhao Xiaoyong further said that regular enterprises can make profits as long as they receive a certain amount, depending on whether this amount can reach the boundary line of factory design.
"In the highly competitive situation, enterprises may need more to make sustainable profits." Zhao Xiaoyong said that only through economies of scale can it be possible to offset various costs of enterprises. The reporter combed the list of power battery recycling white list enterprises. From the financial reports of the third quarter of 2021 released by these enterprises, some enterprises have a net profit margin of more than 60%, while others have a net loss of more than 8%. The uneven situation of the industry is obvious.
The reporter learned that as a leading enterprise in the field of power battery recycling, Huayou cycle has achieved good economic benefits in 2021. Bao Wei introduced the three directions of cooperation with customers (mainly vehicle enterprises):
First, echelon utilization, joint development and operation and profit sharing.
Second, replace battery materials with waste materials. "The customer gave me waste batteries and I gave him materials." Bao Wei said that because there are precursors (important upstream materials of positive materials) and positive materials in the industrial chain, for customers, it can not only add value to products, but also ensure resources. Vehicle enterprises reflect that the battery cost has been reduced by more than 10% through cooperation, which is a very difficult achievement.
Third, share the carbon emission index with customers. "In the future, recycled materials and echelon utilization will reduce carbon. We will share the carbon reduction effect with vehicle manufacturers."
"Locking customers firmly through three sharing methods is not something that ordinary small enterprises can do." Bao Wei said that therefore, the industry must have a threshold. Only by eliminating the gray industrial chain can leading enterprises develop healthily. This threshold is to provide customers with comprehensive integrated services and achieve win-win sharing with customers. It is not only the traditional trading relationship, but also to form a deep and closed-loop cooperation with customers in the industrial chain.
Bao Wei believes that in addition to this whole industry chain enterprise, the lowest cost treatment method can be found in the future, and the technology leading enterprises can survive through continuous technology research and development. Overall, the power battery recycling industry is more and more in line with the development law of mature industries.
In addition to the whole industry chain enterprises, Seoul District believes that the mode of linkage (other industry chain enterprises) with car enterprises or recycling enterprises or battery production enterprises as the main body is also feasible.
Seoul District said that when some big brand car enterprises cooperate with recycling enterprises, they will leave some profit space for recycling enterprises.
"Large enterprises still have a sense of social responsibility. The initial intention of recycling batteries is not because the batteries are valuable, but because the batteries are harmful and will pollute the environment." He said that the second is the resource attribute of retired batteries. The recovered nickel, cobalt and lithium can be added to the supply chain, so that the industry can develop healthily.
the market is expected to have a large volume, with an annual compound growth rate of 28.3%
Whether the business model is feasible still needs to be verified by the market, but the competition in the market is cruel. Many people believe that the power battery recycling market is a new blue ocean, but Bao Wei stressed that power battery recycling, like waste incineration, hazardous waste disposal and other industries, should first solve the problem of safety and environmental protection in the industry, and then recycle resources.
In his opinion, we should treat this industry with an ordinary mind and blindly publicize that this market is a new blue ocean, which will lead to the influx of a large number of enterprises. When the blue ocean becomes a red ocean with full competition, a large number of enterprises will fall down, and the fallen battery recycling enterprises may leave more disasters than the general industry, Because battery processing enterprises are still chemical enterprises in the final analysis, events that may affect the environment and safety may occur in the process of accelerating from the blue ocean market to the red ocean.
Therefore, it is worth pondering whether the power battery recycling industry is suitable for the development model of disposal enterprises or resource guarantee enterprises controlled by national policies, or a blue ocean suitable for full market competition.
However, at present, a large number of enterprises do enter this industry. How can we effectively ensure the standardization of battery recycling?
He Ye believes that "at present, the most effective means is legal means, because all departmental systems are not mandatory."
The extension of producer responsibility of the Ministry of industry and information technology means that car enterprises are the main body responsible for the recovery of retired batteries, but there is no clear requirement on whether car enterprises should bear the responsibility in the reward and punishment mechanism. There should be a clear statement whether the government can give corresponding encouragement to bear responsibility and whether the lack of responsibility will be limited in the field of tax or credit. After car companies entrust retired batteries to white list enterprises for processing, they will not trace whether the subsequent processing is compliant. Therefore, in fact, the flow direction, price and treatment of retired batteries may not be controllable.
He Ye introduced that at present, China has only one standardized legal regulation in the renewable resources industry - the regulations on the administration of the recycling and treatment of waste electrical and electronic products, which requires manufacturers to pay the waste electrical and electronic product treatment fund, while there is no similar legal basis in the battery industry.
"We are also communicating with relevant departments recently to actively promote the standardized treatment of retired batteries. We hope to introduce normative laws and regulations for the battery recycling industry and implement the main body responsible for the recycling of retired batteries." He ye said that only by implementing the main body can we ensure the standardization and institutionalization of battery recycling.
The standardized power battery recycling industry will have great prospects in the future. Bao Wei introduced that recycling enterprises can first do "re guarantee". The residual value of used cars is very low now because everyone is worried about the battery life. If the enterprise comes out to guarantee the customer how much the battery residual value can be, the residual value of used cars will increase.
The second is "remanufacturing". If there are some problems after battery retirement, recycling enterprises can provide the possibility of maintenance.
The second is "reuse", that is, echelon utilization. Finally, "recycling" is recycling. These operations maximize the material value of retired batteries.
East Asia Qianhai research report points out that 2021 is the initial stage of power battery retirement. By 2030, China's power battery retirement level is expected to be 2.373 million tons, with a nine-year compound annual growth rate of about 28.3%.
(source: Daily Economic News)
