Investment strategy of transportation industry in 2022: express delivery pattern is pregnant with new opportunities, travel waiting for value return. Resuming the performance of 2021, the transportation sector rose by 2.57%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.76 percentage points. In the industry, except for the decline of railway transportation and airport, other sectors rose. Among them, shipping, public transportation, logistics, air transportation, expressway and port increased by 29.60%, 12.19%, 10.36%, 10.12%, 2.96% and 2.94% respectively, while railway transportation and airport decreased by 12.15% and 32.60% respectively. Among them, the shipping sector benefited from the rising performance of freight rates due to strong demand and shortage of transport capacity under the overseas epidemic, and the logistics sector benefited from the improvement of industrial competition pattern under the inflection point of price war from 2021h2. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the trend of tangential quality competition and improvement pattern in the express sector under the policy catalytic superposition stock market is relatively clear. At the same time, the current travel chain is still subject to certain administrative restrictions due to the repeated epidemics in China and the severe impact of overseas epidemics, which also accumulates flexibility for the reversal in the future, The aviation sector is expected to recover its elasticity with the return of the medium and short-term China line and the gradual liberalization of the medium and long-term international line. The airport sector is expected to reflect the long-term value given by the passive flow of high consumption power with the return of the medium and long-term international line under the slightly weak tax exemption of outlying islands.
New year’s Day travel data came out, and the travel chain under the repeated epidemic still needs to be repaired. On the evening of January 3, the Ministry of transport announced the travel data on New Year’s day. During the three-day holiday, the total number of passengers is expected to be 86.185 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, including 2175.7, 6069, 127.8 and 2.46 million by railway, highway, waterway and civil aviation, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, 26.8%, 19.1% and 1.3% respectively. On the whole, the release of travel demand has been suppressed under the repeated epidemics in China, and the decline of passenger flow of various travel modes is compound expected. At the current time point, the repeated epidemic situation in many places across the country continues. In the short term, the Spring Festival transportation will start on January 17. It is expected that the epidemic prevention and control will be further tightened during the 40 day spring festival transportation, which will affect the travel data; In the medium and long term, with the improvement of epidemic prevention, control and management capacity and efficiency in various regions and the promotion of covid-19 vaccine, the recovery trend of travel chain is clear and the elasticity will be released eventually.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The recovery of the epidemic situation in China did not meet expectations; The recovery process of the international line is lower than expected; The improvement of the competition pattern in the express industry was less than expected.
(source: China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) )
