Social consumption will gradually recover in twists and turns in 2021. Repeated epidemics and Internet competition have caused continued pressure on the operation of traditional physical retail formats such as supermarkets, department stores and mother baby chains, but the data show that the offline sales channels have shown a marginal improvement trend quarter by quarter as a whole.
In terms of secondary market performance, CS commerce and retail industry increased by 2.42% in December 2021, down by 1.0% in the same period of last year, and the market performance was stronger than that in the same period of last year. In terms of sub sectors, most sub sectors rose. The top three sub sectors were other chains, supermarkets and professional markets, with 8.78%, 6.73% and 6.07% respectively. The supermarket sector led the increase .
The agency said that at the end of the year, a small-scale delta mutant virus epidemic began to occur in many places, and attention still needs to be paid to investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries (such as personal care and other daily necessities, supermarket channels). The supermarket sector with anti inflation attribute may have a band pulse market .
Mandatory consumption performance is stable, and the promotion fee policy at the end of the year is supported
In the first three quarters of 2021, social consumption recovered steadily as a whole, but it was also affected by repeated epidemic and other factors. In terms of prices, CPI rose moderately in 2021, showing a trend of rising first and then falling.
mandatory consumption of grain, oil and food performed steadily. since the mandatory consumer goods have consumption toughness and are less affected by the overall consumption environment, the mandatory consumer goods related to supermarket sales (grain, oil, food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol) have achieved steady growth. But there is also differentiation. Daily necessities have been in the doldrums since the third quarter.
the recovery of offline channels has slowed down due to the repeated impact of the epidemic. according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, by retail format, the retail sales of supermarkets / convenience stores / department stores / specialty stores / specialty stores above designated size increased by 6.2% / 14.5% / 19.9% / 17.1% / 19.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2021, slowing down to varying degrees compared with the growth rate in the first quarter and the first half of 2021.
However, in terms of policy, in the short term, the Ministry of Commerce has also deployed to promote consumption in the coming New Year’s day and Spring Festival. It has fully mobilized and deployed to do a good job in market supply guarantee during the “two festivals” on the premise of epidemic prevention and control. Specific measures include: strengthening the organization of supply, ensuring the policy business during the festival, meeting the consumer demand during the festival, and ensuring sufficient supply of supply.
Market level: marginal improvement of revenue growth of supermarket industry
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) according to the statistics of the performance of 116 listed companies in the trade and retail industry in the first three quarters of 2021, it is found that under the base effect of the previous year, the high performance of the trade and retail industry in the first three quarters of 2021 fell. From the performance of sub sectors,
the revenue growth margin of the supermarket industry has improved, and the profit growth rate is low affected by many factors. on top of the quarterly decline in revenue growth of the previous year in 2021, the marginal revenue growth of the supermarket industry improved quarter by quarter in the first three quarters of 2021. However, due to multiple factors such as the downturn of the overall consumption environment and the new business status of community group buying, the profitability of the supermarket even suffered large-scale losses since the second quarter.
some faucets have been improved. in the third quarter alone, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) improved, Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) was relatively stable in the epidemic situation, and Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) performed best.
Leading inbound warehousing + Seeking digital transformation
In recent years, the popularity of warehousing member stores has increased rapidly, and overseas brands such as Sam’s member stores have competed to overweight and layout the Chinese market. Since 2021, Chinese traditional supermarket enterprises have also tried new formats such as warehousing stores and warehousing member stores in order to seek new growth points.
new and old brands have laid out warehouse member stores one after another. taking Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) as an example, the company has successfully completed the transformation of dozens of stores, Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Carrefour and other supermarket leaders have also opened the first warehousing member stores one after another. In addition, the new retail representative box horse is also overweight warehouse member stores.
The styles of are different, and the local supermarkets still focus on the storage system . Warehousing member stores mainly involve the combination of two independent elements: warehousing system and member consumption system. Overseas classic brands take the membership system as the core, and the attempt of Chinese traditional supermarkets still focuses on the warehousing system. On the whole, reducing cost and increasing efficiency and realizing high cost performance of goods are the important purposes of Chinese traditional supermarket brand layout of warehouse stores.
scale up the digital construction and improve the supply chain capacity. facing the fierce external competition, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) comprehensively promoted the digital transformation and improved the stock efficiency, Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) hired IBM to introduce SAP system and upgrade the digital platform in 2021.
Investment strategy of supermarket industry
suppressed by short-term performance, the valuation of the supermarket industry is in the bottom area . As most enterprises in the supermarket industry suffered losses in 2021, PS (market sales rate) was selected as the evaluation index of the industry valuation. Since the peak in August 2020, the overall valuation of the supermarket industry has continued to decline. However, under the base effect, the annual performance in 2021 will improve quarter by quarter, and the supermarket industry will usher in a short-term performance peak in the first quarter of 2022, which is conducive to the repair of the overall valuation of the industry.
Galaxy Securities: at the end of the year, a small-scale delta variant virus epidemic began to occur in many places. We still need to pay attention to the investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries (such as personal care and other daily necessities, supermarket channels).
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : since the second half of last year, warehouse member stores have expanded against the trend. The valuation of physical supermarkets is low, and the sector is expected to usher in the valuation repair market . It is recommended to pay attention to the following:
Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) (002697. SZ): leading convenience supermarkets in Sichuan Province resist internal and external shocks through intensive layout and tobacco monopoly. They are optimistic that the company will expand outside the province through operation and management mode output or independent operation, so as to find new growth points for the company.
Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) (601933. SH): after yunchuang’s return to the system, it may drag down the company’s performance in the short term, but it will also help the company fully promote the home platform, accelerate the exploration of store home integration, and look forward to the company’s Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration.
Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) (603708. SH): relying on the advantages of the existing supply chain, the company has ensured the steady, medium and small increase of profit margin. In combination with the exhibition store strategy of simultaneous promotion of independent expansion and acquisition and merger, the company has accelerated the layout of stores inside and outside the province and is optimistic about the medium and long-term sustainable development of the company.
(source of the report: Galaxy Securities, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) , Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Guosheng securities and Kaiyuan securities; the information in this article does not constitute any investment suggestions. The contents are from licensed securities institutions and do not represent the view of the platform. Investors are invited to make independent judgments and decisions.)
(source: 21st Century Business Herald)
