According to customs statistics, China’s import volume of potassium chloride in March 2022 was 638500 tons, a month on month decrease of 16.12%, and the average import price was US $416.17/ton. The total import volume from January to March 2022 was 2098200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.11%. The reason behind the fact that the import price is significantly lower than the large contract price signed by China is not happy, which may mean that it is more difficult for China to increase the import of potassium chloride.
On February 15, China’s joint negotiation group on imported potash fertilizer reached an agreement with the international potash fertilizer supplier canpotex, which determined that the import price of standard potassium chloride in 2022 was US $cfr590 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 139%. It is reasonable that the price should be implemented in February, but the import price in March is far lower than the large contract price. The reason behind this is that although China seized the opportunity to sign a large contract in 2022 at a lower price, the implementation of the large contract is limited, and some imported potassium chloride sources in the first quarter are still the remaining contract volume in 2021.
The import of potassium chloride from Russia and Belarus has a decisive impact on China’s potassium fertilizer. Distribution of source countries of potassium chloride (except pure potassium chloride) imported in March: 314700 tons in Belarus, 133400 tons in Russia (including 121200 tons of border trade), 95400 tons in Canada, 23200 tons in Israel, 70200 tons in Laos and 1500 tons in Jordan. Belarus and Russia account for 70% of the imports.
The source countries of potassium chloride (except pure potassium chloride) imported in the first quarter were: Belarus 684400 tons, Russia 583600 tons (including 342100 tons of border trade), Canada 403800 tons, Israel 209200 tons, Laos 145900 tons, Jordan 68800 tons and Uzbekistan 2400 tons. Among them, Russia and Belarus account for 60% of the total imports.
It can be seen from the import volume that Russia contracted significantly in March, Belarus and Canada were relatively stable, and Laos had a large volume in March, but it was still relatively small as a whole.
According to statistics, in March, the volume of potassium chloride imported by China through border trade was 121200 tons, the average import price was 511.58 US dollars / ton, and the import price also continued to rise. From January to March 2022, the import volume of border trade reached 342200 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 42.11%. It is understood that at present, neither Russia nor Belarus can successfully transport to China by sea. Belarus will enter China by China Europe railway, but it is not clear whether it can be implemented in accordance with the large maritime contract. The Russian side’s border trade adopts the way of monthly order negotiation. It is reported that the Russian offer is high, and China and Russia are still negotiating.
At present, the international price of potash fertilizer has increased significantly compared with the large contract price. At present, the FOB prices of potassium chloride in Vancouver, northwest Europe and Israel are reported at US $862.5, US $901.5 and US $929.0/ton respectively, up US $115.0, US $87.5 and US $90.0/ton respectively compared with March 31, with increases of 5.4%, 10.7% and 10.7% respectively. In addition, at present, the average price of large granular potassium chloride (MOP) in Brazil is about US $1150 / ton CFR. In the next one or two months, the price may rise to US $1250 / ton CFR. Some market participants say that there are orders with this price. Such prices will hit an all-time high.
In this case, international giants may sell potassium chloride to regions with high prices to increase profits.
China’s price is also at a high point. At present, the self raised price of 62% white potassium in Chinese ports is about 5100 yuan / ton, the self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in ports is about 5000 yuan / ton, the vehicle price of 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 48504900 yuan / ton, and the arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 39004800 yuan / ton.
China is committed to overseas prospecting to meet China’s needs. It is worth mentioning Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ( Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ). The mining of chlorination agent in Laos can feed China back. According to the company’s announcement on February 16, it signed the strategic agreement on ensuring supply of spring ploughing in 2022 with Zhongnong group. The Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) side said that 500000 tons can be fed back to China according to China’s needs this year, and 2 / 3 of the output can be fed back to China according to China’s needs after the completion of 3 million tons / year overseas production base in the next year.
