On January 10, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose all the way. Data show that the Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector index closed up 3.59% to 3913.72 points. Among the top 10 stocks in the sector, 5 belong to aquaculture. In the plate, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) , Wellhope Foods Co.Ltd(603609) rose by the limit, and a total of 19 stocks rose by more than 5%. In addition, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) aquaculture index closed up 4.37%, and 27 stocks in the sector closed up; The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing industry index closed up 2.76%.
At the same time, the national pig price decreased significantly. Statistics show that since the new year, the average price of pigs in China has fallen all the way, from 8.04 yuan / kg on January 1 to 7.49 yuan / kg on January 7, a decrease of 6.84%. After the pig food ratio rose above 6:1 from November to mid December 2021, it fell back to the “5 range” again. The main contract of pig futures fell 3.64% on the same day and closed at 13510 yuan / ton, again approaching the historical low of 13365 yuan / ton in the current main contract on September 24, 2021.
In terms of breeding industry, a number of pig breeding enterprises have successively announced the pig sales in December 2021, with mixed sales. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) in December, 5025000 pigs (including 37000 piglets) were sold, with an income of 7.765 billion yuan, up 29.71% and 14.75% respectively month on month. In the month of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , 1227000 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products) were sold, with an income of 2.291 billion yuan, an increase of 2.63% and a decrease of 5.21% respectively month on month. 805200 pigs (including 30400 piglets) were sold in Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) month, with an income of 1.291 billion yuan, down 19.79% and 4.23% month on month respectively. 367700 commercial pigs (including 28900 piglets) were sold in Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) month, with an income of 601 million yuan, down 35.08% and 39.99% month on month respectively. Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) the monthly pig sales volume was 125200, and the income was 232 million yuan, up 33.76% and 40.25% respectively month on month.
According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, by the end of November 2021, the stock of fertile sows reached 42.96 million, a month on month decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to 104.8% of the normal stock. The stock has decreased month on month for five consecutive months. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) from the perspective of securities, the market has doubts about the clearing range of production capacity, but believes that the elimination of breeding sows and monomer weight will promote the clearing of production capacity beyond expectations. Under the resonance of three cycles of supply, demand and inventory, the weakening pig price in the first quarter will become an important catalyst.
Looking forward to the future, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the possibility of centralized marketing before the Spring Festival is high, which may lead to downward pressure on pig prices. In the medium and long term, the agency believes that the bottom of pig price has been realized, and the overall loss of the pig industry has brought about the obvious deregulation of production capacity, and the trend of deregulation has been determined. Specifically, from the capacity removal range of fertile sows in November last year, even when the pig price rose so high from mid to late October to November, the removal range can still reach 1.2%, which reflects that the trend of de industrialization in the industry has been determined. However, there are different institutional views on the inflection point of the current “pig cycle”. Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) the research report believes that the inflection point of the pig cycle still needs to be observed, but the valuation of mainstream companies is at the bottom. According to the Research Report of Kaiyuan securities, the decline of pig price in the first half of 2022 will greatly affect the accelerated pace of capacity removal in the industry, and it is expected to reverse or come in the fourth quarter of 2022; Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that in the medium and long term, the bottom of pig price has been found, and it is expected to reverse in the middle of this year.
(source: Economic Information Daily)
