The A-share market on April 21 was also very fierce.
The violent shock continued to push the fund to microblog hot search, showing a high degree of attention.
On April 21, the market performance was dismal. The Shanghai composite index went straight to “below 3000 points”, closing at 307981 points, down 2.26%; In addition, the Shenzhen composite index closed at 1108428 points, down 2.70%; The gem index closed at 231246, down 2.17%. The net capital inflow from going north was 900 million yuan. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.25% and the Hang Seng technology index fell 3.48%.
In terms of industry, most of the Shenwan level industries fell. The performance of non bank finance, beauty care and banking is relatively stable; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel, basic chemical industry and non-ferrous metals led the decline.
Why did the market fall again? Is it at the bottom? Can the layout be? The fund King combines the market views of 16 companies, including Nanfang, Boshi, Central Europe, Jinxin, Nord, Anxin, YONGYING, Debang, Guohai Franklin, Morgan Stanley Huaxin, CITIC Prudential, Huafu, Shanghai Investment Morgan, Western Lide, Taixin fund and Agricultural Bank of China.
Judging from the comments of these fund companies, the recent RRR reduction was less than expected and the interest rate reduction failed, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe, the accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the slowdown of the performance growth of some manufacturing growth leaders have become the reasons. However, there will be a rainbow after the storm. Many companies recognize the medium and long-term investment value in the current market and don’t be too pessimistic about the future marketP align = “center” multiple factors triggered a sharp decline
Judging from the comments of these fund companies, the recent decline in reserve requirements was less than expected and the interest rate cut failed, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was still severe, the accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the slowdown in the performance growth of some manufacturing growth leaders became the reasons for the sharp decline.
For the reasons for the sharp decline, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that in China, the recent RRR reduction was less than expected and the interest rate reduction failed, causing the market to worry about the steady growth policy, and the market confidence may continue to be disturbed in the short term. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe. Although there are signs of inflection point, there is still great uncertainty about the closure time. Market concerns have shifted from worrying about consumption to worrying about the supply chain links of the industrial chain. The poor logistics and transportation has increased the impact on the supply chain, and the production links of some enterprises have also been affected. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the confidence in returning to work and production is insufficient, and the confidence in overall economic growth is also impacted. In the short term, before the full return to work and production, the downturn trend of market risk preference will probably continue.
YONGYING Fund believes that the negative impact of China’s epidemic on the economy and market has not subsided, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has accelerated. 1) The recent accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is due to the downward pressure on exports under the influence of the epidemic on the one hand and the narrowing of the real interest rate gap between China and the United States on the other hand. From the historical data, the pressure of RMB depreciation often corresponds to the pressure on China’s stock market and the possibility of accelerated outflow of foreign capital; 2) The impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, coupled with the cost pressure of the upstream price rise and the midstream manufacturing industry, led to the lower than expected first quarter performance of some manufacturing companies such as new energy, the weaker profit expectation or the deeper reason for the recent growth sector adjustment. 3) After the Financial Stability Board’s market policy signal in March, the market may have a “policy bottom”, but more effective measures are needed to implement from the “market bottom”, including epidemic prevention policies and real estate credit policies, in order to reverse economic expectations. Before that, the market still lacked enough confidence.
Guohai Franklin fund believes that two short-term factors have led to recent market fluctuations: the April LPR interest rate announced on April 20 remains unchanged, and the interest rate cut expectations of some investors have failed. In addition, the covid-19 epidemic continues to ferment beyond market expectations. The epidemic affects consumers’ consumption ability and willingness, as well as the normal production and operation of enterprises, especially industries that need complete supporting links, such as automobiles. If a certain link is interrupted, it will affect the delivery rhythm of vehicle manufacturers, and such industries are mostly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, which may be more affected. Therefore, the market lacks confidence in this year’s economic growth target, and even considers revising the profit expectation of individual stocks.
CITIC Prudential Fund believes that the main factors affecting the sharp decline in the market today include: 1) the recent tightening of overseas liquidity still has a certain capital outflow pressure on the Chinese market. 2) At present, it is in the intensive release period of the first quarterly report. The performance growth of some leading manufacturers slowed down or fell below expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in share prices. 3) Although there are signs of inflection point in the epidemic situation in Shanghai, there is still great uncertainty about when to fully resume work. On the one hand, the poor logistics and transportation has a greater impact on the supply chain; On the other hand, the production links of some enterprises have also been affected, causing the market to worry about the prosperity of the manufacturing growth field. 4) The recent fall in the reserve requirement was less than expected and the interest rate cut failed, which triggered the market’s concern that the stable growth policy is facing the tightening constraints of overseas liquidity. The stable growth sector, which was relatively resistant in the early stage, also experienced a significant correction in the near future.
JPMorgan Fund believes that the decline of more than 4400 stocks and the rise of Shenwan industry index today show that the market confidence is extremely low. In the recent period, the US bond interest rate is upside down, the policy is loose and the market expectation is slightly lower. The epidemic may pose a challenge to the economic fundamentals in the second quarter, and the downward pressure on the results disclosed in the first quarter may be the main reason for the continued weakness of a shares. Under the continuous high level of US inflation, the expectation of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve has been strengthened, and the continuous rise of US bond yield has led to the upside down of China US bond interest rate, the pressure of capital outflow has increased, which also restricts China’s policy easing space to a certain extent, and the large fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has also affected investor confidence.
Zhou Mi, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said that the recent market shock was mainly due to the Russian Ukrainian war and the impact of the epidemic. At present, the Russian Ukrainian war has begun a new round of game, and most of the impact of Russia and Ukraine on the market has begun to weaken in the short term. As the epidemic data in Shanghai slowed down, the above impact began to subside. With the implementation of the RRR reduction and the expectation of the Fed’s strong scale reduction (there were even rumors of an interest rate increase of 75bp), the RMB has weakened sharply recently, which has two effects: first, some foreign capital will return to the United States, which will pose a certain pressure on stocks with a high proportion of foreign capital; First, the intensification of depreciation will reduce our expectations of loose policy. It is the superposition of these two factors that has an impact on the market.
Western profit Fund believes that the reasons for the continuous sharp decline include: 1) the epidemic situation in Shanghai and some other regions continues, and the prevention and control is still relatively strict, which has an impact on logistics and enterprise production, causing the market to worry about the follow-up economic repair; 2) Recently, the performance of some growth industry companies is lower than the market expectation, which suppresses the market’s confidence in the growth sector in the short term; 3) The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 3.6%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the forecast in January; 4) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continued to affect market risk appetite. The cautious sentiment towards economic growth outside China jointly triggered the decline of cyclical sectors such as basic chemical industry and steel.
ABC Huili Fund believes that the revision of economic expectations, the failure of interest rate cuts to land as scheduled, and the poor performance of superimposed growth leaders lead to market adjustment.
First, the epidemic has exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy, and China’s concerns about steady growth have escalated. On April 19, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6%, and lowered China’s economic growth forecast for 2022 to 4.4% from 4.8% in January, lower than the 5.5% economic growth target announced by the previous two sessions.
Second, the further tightening of overseas liquidity has triggered the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate and the outflow of foreign capital, while restricting China’s easing space. On April 15, the central bank announced that it would cut the reserve requirement by 25 basis points, which was lower than the market expectation. This week, the market expected LPR interest rate cut failed again. With the tightening of the Federal Reserve Policy and the rising inflationary pressure, the easing of monetary policy was constrained to some extent.
Third, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is still grim. The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council said that the epidemic situation across the country was gradually stabilizing, but the impact of cross input among regions was obvious, and the task of dynamic zeroing around the country was very arduous. Recently, there have been new confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and asymptomatic infections in Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province and Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province. The market is worried about the impact of the supply chain impact to a certain extent.
Fourth, the performance of growth leaders is less than expected, leading to market adjustment. With the intensive disclosure of annual reports and first quarter reports of listed companies, the market has paid more attention to short-term performance. Under the background of low market risk appetite, some leading enterprises’ first quarter report was less than expected, which led to capital selling. Superimposed on the performance of other leading companies may be less than expected and the shutdown risk concerns of Shanghai new energy vehicle enterprises, the growth tracks of new energy vehicles and semiconductors have been significantly adjustedP align = “center” new energy and agrochemical sector adjustment
Yan Anqi, the fund manager of Nord fund, believes that the recent adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector is mainly due to the following reasons: 1. At the capital level, the offshore US dollar exchange rate fell below 6.4 and sold continuously in the north, putting pressure on the growth sector. 2. The epidemic has an impact on production and consumption. Although the downstream starts to resume work, it still needs a long time to recover, which will have a certain impact on the production and marketing of the middle and upper reaches. Take lithium carbonate as an example. Previously, the price of battery grade products rushed to 500000 / ton, but it fell recently. 3. The epidemic not only affects the normal production of the industrial chain, but also reduces the market risk preference, and the requirement for short-term certainty is increasing. At present, it is in the release period of quarterly reports, and the market has reduced its tolerance for performance decline or less than expected. At the same time, it has also increased its concern about the performance of Companies in the same industrial chain.
The extreme market environment is to conduct a stress test on the rapid development of new energy vehicle market in the past two years. Good companies can show good pressure resistance. We believe they will perform well after the recovery of subsequent industries.
For today’s sharp decline in the agrochemical sector, Jin Ye, a selected hybrid sponsored fund manager of deppon fund deppon cycle, said that it was mainly dominated at the transaction level and emotional level. Logically, the downstream demand of chemical fertilizer is mainly Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , which belongs to the rigid demand category and is less affected by economic fluctuations; On the supply side, the cost of overseas enterprises has increased significantly affected by energy prices, so the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises has been improved accordingly, and the first quarterly reports of relevant enterprises have performed well. Today’s sharp decline is mainly caused by profit capital settlement and excessive excess return in the early stage. The industry logic has not changed.
In the follow-up, we can focus on potassium fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer. The demand elasticity of potash fertilizer industry is large, there is no new supply in the global short term, the supply chain is uncertain, and the situation of short supply may last for some time; However, although the inventory has bottomed out, the demand is still releasing, and there is room for further upward growth in the future. Nitrogen fertilizer, on the one hand, benefited from the sharp rise in the cost of natural gas by overseas enterprises, which supported the cost of coal urea in China. On the other hand, the price difference at home and abroad is significant. The price after spring ploughing is expected to be driven by overseas, showing a month on month upward trend. In addition, the category structure is flexible and adjustable, and the profit stability of leading enterprises is also strong. However, it cannot be ruled out that in the follow-up, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is alleviated and overseas energy prices fall, the prices of relevant categories in China also fluctuate to a certain extentP align = “center” short term or volatile trend p align = “center” medium and long term market opportunities
China Southern Fund believes that looking forward to the future, with the rise of US bond yield in the short term, the interest rate spread between China and the United States may still be further upside down, the pressure of short-term RMB devaluation increases, and the disturbance to market risk appetite increases. The rise of US bond mainly reflects the market’s expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and start the contraction in May. If the expectation is fulfilled at that time, the US bond yield is expected to fall. In China, the growth rate of new social finance in China has accelerated and improved. As the epidemic eases, production and consumption are expected to normalize. If the obstacles to the force of steady growth policies can be removed, the pessimistic expectations of the market will be gradually reversed.
Boshi Fund believes that since March, northbound funds have generally continued the trend of net outflow, indicating that overseas funds are generally cautious about a shares. At present, the issuance of public funds is still cold, and there is no significant incremental capital in the market. In the short term, the momentum of A-share market trend is insufficient.
At present, external uncertainties such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike still exist, which will still affect the trend of a shares, but it is more emotional disturbance and will not affect the medium and long-term trend of a shares. In the medium and long term, China’s macro policies, economic fundamentals and liquidity will have a greater impact on the trend of a shares. Under the background of stable growth supported by policies and the continuation of the monetary easing cycle, the trend of China’s economic recovery remains unchanged. We can still have confidence in the performance of a shares, there will still be no lack of structural opportunities, and the industry sectors benefiting from policy support will be more favored by funds.
YONGYING Fund believes that the short-term index shock consolidation, in the medium term, the market or opportunities outweigh the risks. In the short term, the epidemic prevention work is advancing, and it is expected that it may be alleviated in the middle and later part of the second quarter, while the overseas risk disturbance also needs to wait for the substantial decline of US inflation from May to June. At the same time, it takes time for China to broaden its credit, that is, it takes a process from the end of the policy to the end of the market. It is necessary to see that the policy signal is transformed into real measures, during which the market may fluctuate and consolidate; In the medium term, after the full release of overseas risks and the gradual implementation of Chinese policies after the second quarter, the market may return to the upward channel.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that looking forward to the future, we still believe that in the short term, the A-share market is still under pressure or will maintain a volatile trend under the influence of factors such as coping with the challenge of the epidemic, the fermentation of overseas stagflation risk and the stalemate of Russia Ukraine conflict. However, considering that the current overall market valuation has returned to the historically low position, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance. The medium and long-term market still contains opportunities.
Guohai Franklin fund believes that from the perspective of the whole year, the market trend this year may be low in the first and high in the second. 1、 The weak fundamentals in the second quarter and the tense situation in Ukraine led to the rise in the prices of commodities, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , natural gas and other varieties, the restoration steps of manufacturing profits were disrupted, the covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations, the total retail sales data in March was poor, and the manufacturing rhythm of industrial enterprises was disrupted. Therefore, the stock market may also be weak in the second quarter. We have confidence in the market in the second half of the year. In terms of policy, both fiscal policy and monetary policy have begun to work. Special bonds have been issued rapidly. The real estate policy has warmed up due to the implementation of urban policies. The force of future policies will gradually take effect, which may be more obvious in the second half of the year.
At the individual stock level, with the sharp decline in the past two days, the investment cost performance of many stocks may be improved.
CITIC Prudential Fund believes that looking forward to the future, there are still many internal and external uncertainties, and the market may still face repetition. Recently, it will focus on the setting tone of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on economic fundamentals and policies, whether it will maintain the economic growth target of about 5.5%, how to achieve this target, and how to deal with the risk of epidemic spillover in the future. The overall market valuation has returned to the historically low position. There is no need to worry too much about the future performance. The medium and long-term market opportunities outweigh the risks.
Zhou Mi, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said that the impact of the epidemic is weakening with the naked eye. The return of the savings rate of U.S. residents to the low level before the epidemic and the sharp growth of credit card debt ratio will have an impact on the future U.S. economy, and then the expectation of interest rate hike in the United States will fall greatly. At that time, after various effects such as valuation, performance, overseas and inflation, A-Shares will hopefully usher in its inflection point.
The research department of Huafu Fund said that in the medium term, the Chinese market is expected to show relative resilience. First, China’s growth and policy cycle are relatively favorable. After the policy was “confirmed” at the end of December last year, there were twists and turns from currency to credit transmission. However, from the perspective of market players, the national standing committee last week encouraged banks to make more loans to industries and small, medium and micro enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, On the other hand, the reduction of reserve requirement reduces the debt cost of banks, which strengthens the confidence in the gradual recovery of economic momentum and the recovery of economic bottom, whether from the perspective of economic operation or economic expectation. Secondly, the absolute valuation of the Chinese market is at a relatively low level in history, and the relative valuation is also attractive compared with other major markets. Finally, China’s inflation pressure is relatively controllable. As an important manufacturing country in the world, China has the largest and relatively complete industrial chain in the world. As long as China continues to pursue scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the Chinese market may be relatively more resilient in the global supply risk.
Huang Qianyi, manager of Taixin modern service industry mixed fund, said that from the perspective of policy, the policy support for the economy, important industries and secondary market is very clear, and the policy bottom is clear. The emergence of the market bottom needs to wait for the recovery of market confidence, which may come from the continuous emergence of more detailed policies, clearer data and more certain performance, and the excessive concern of falsifying the market; And more long-term stable incremental value funds to reverse the continuous decline of industries and individual stocks that have been significantly underestimated only because of the negative feedback of funds. With the continuous support of policies, and with the continuous improvement of gold content of declining industries and individual stocks, some industries and individual stocks have been at the lowest valuation in the past few years. The emergence of the market bottom is only a matter of time. After the mud and sand fall, high-quality companies and well-developed industries will usher in huge investment opportunitiesP align = “center” steady growth + good business ideas p align = “center” finance, real estate, infrastructure chain and other related sectors are phased key
Turning to the future, China Southern Fund believes that steady growth is the core idea in terms of industry allocation, and the demand brought by the acceleration of infrastructure investment is the most determined direction of the year. It is suggested to choose the sectors benefiting from the acceleration of new construction, such as cement, industrial metals, steel, etc. Taking into account the changes in the policies of the real estate industry, we can pay attention to the household and consumer building materials in the reversal of difficulties. Global inflation is high. CPI may rise moderately in the second and third quarters of this year. Pig prices are expected to pick up after the industry’s production capacity is cleared. It is suggested to pay attention to the pig breeding sector.
YONGYING Fund believes that strategically speaking, it may have reached the time point of medium-term layout. In terms of style, the effect of epidemic prevention and control in China is beginning to appear, and consumption and other epidemic damaged sectors may take the lead in ushering in the left layout opportunity; Before the effect of the steady growth policy has not fully appeared, the relevant sectors such as finance, real estate and infrastructure chain may still be the focus of the market stage; After the second quarter, when market sentiment stabilizes and picks up, the growth track with gradually prominent cost performance is expected to return to the main line of the market.
Anxin fund Li Zhijun believes that the inflection point of epidemic prevention and control may appear in the first half of the second quarter, and the consumer sector that has fallen continuously since the beginning of the year may usher in a rebound in valuation repair; In the second half of the second quarter, steady growth measures were introduced to stabilize the economy, the supply chain of manufacturing industry was straightened out after the epidemic, the 10-year Treasury bond of the United States may peak and fall, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may ease. The growth sector with huge decline this year may usher in an oversold rebound. The shock adjustment of the market just provides conditions for us to find better buying opportunities. From the perspective of stretching, pessimism often creates a “golden pit”. Our strategy has gradually shifted from defense to active participation. On the basis of adhering to the allocation of stable growth sector, we will increase the left layout of consumption and growth sector. In terms of rhythm, we will consume first and then grow.
Huatai Bairui Fund believes that in the short term, the epidemic has a great impact on employment from March to April, the necessity of giving priority to risk prevention will continue to improve, and steady growth will continue to increase. As the April Politburo meeting approaches, successful epidemic prevention and control itself can also alleviate some market concerns. After the epidemic eased, the finance driven infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate, and the orders of some central enterprises maintained a high increase in the first quarter, which was also verified by the strong infrastructure construction data in the first quarter. The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still unclear, and commodities continue to fluctuate at a high level. In order to curb high inflation, the Federal Reserve has a clear tightening direction, which is conducive to the construction of precious metals, agriculture and traditional energy expenditure. In the medium term, China’s advanced manufacturing industry chain will continue to improve, forming China’s comparative advantage and global competitiveness. With the advent of the performance disclosure period, we will further explore the direction of prosperity on the basis of policies and continue to layout high-quality companies with better than expected potential.
China Europe Fund believes that in the short term, short-term defensive is still more important. It is suggested to pay attention to the beneficial stimulus policies and financial and real estate industries with advantages such as valuation and dividend yield. Continue to recommend new infrastructure areas with high growth and high certainty in the medium term, especially energy infrastructure, green power and digital infrastructure. It is suggested to continue to pay more attention to the main line of oversold growth. Based on the judgment that it often takes a long time to stabilize the market shock, the configurable window period of the above industries is still long, so there is no need to rush to “rebound”.
Morgan Fund believes that in the medium and long term, the relevant negative factors affecting the market in the short term may be gradually digested over time, and the targets with good fundamentals after adjustment are relatively more attractive. Under the current major changes in fundamentals at home and abroad, it is expected that there is still room for further policies, and the steady growth sector is still the direction that can be focused on at present; In addition, for the relevant themes adjusted due to “poor expectation” in the early stage, the strategy of left layout can also be adopted to wait for the gradual improvement of expectation and the investment opportunities brought by the fermentation of policy implementation from a longer-term perspective.
Western profit Fund believes that looking forward to the future, with the downward revision of performance growth expectations in the market, the release of fundamental risks may have been more sufficient; At the same time, the trading volume has shrunk significantly in the past week, reflecting the relatively low market sentiment, the greater possibility of epidemic improvement and economic repair, and not pessimistic about the medium and long-term market. In the short term, the chain of steady growth and inflation is still the main line; In the medium term, the mainstream growth sectors, such as new energy, technology and high-quality core assets, have been highly attractive in valuation and growth space after recent adjustments, and the medium and long-term layout value is prominent.
ABC Huili Fund believes that in the medium and long term, the A-share market is close to the bottom of history. With the digestion of negative factors and the emergence of the inflection point of China’s epidemic, market sentiment is expected to repair, and some oversold varieties usher in bargain hunting opportunities.
The second quarter is still a window period for steady growth. Facing the impact of the epidemic, the need for policy hedging and stability maintenance has increased. As the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike is further clarified, China’s easing policy is expected to be revised, and market sentiment is expected to stabilize.
On the other hand, the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled, which is still an event with high certainty. From the data, the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai has loomed. After the marginal improvement of the epidemic, the damaged industries and offline consumption are expected to recover. The stabilization of economic fundamentals will further drive the repair of market confidence.
From the perspective of market style, the style is expected to return to equilibrium after market adjustment. It is suggested to make balanced allocation from the two directions of steady growth and high prosperity. Investors can pay attention to the repair of high-end manufacturing industry and offline economy after the epidemic, and appropriately increase the allocation of inflation benefiting industries to hedge the medium-term inflation risk.
