CNOOC will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange today at an issue price of 10.80 yuan. Without considering the over allotment option, CNOOC raised a total of 28.08 billion yuan. If the over allotment option is fully exercised, the maximum fund-raising amount of CNOOC can reach 32.292 billion yuan.
In addition to CNOOC, other companies listed on the gem today are Zhongyi technology and Jiarong technology. Among them, the trend of Zhongyi technology has also attracted much market attention.
It is noteworthy that affected by the recent market downturn, the market is worried about the breaking of new shares. In the process of CNOOC's subscription, the number of online investors abandoned 22.43 million shares, with an amount of 242 million yuan.
However, market analysis generally believes that CNOOC's investment value is obvious and the probability of breaking the stock price on the first day is low. There are three main reasons: first, CNOOC's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is as high as 70.32 billion yuan, and the PE calculated at the issue price of 10.80 yuan per share is about six times, and the net profit in the first quarter is expected to be as high as 24 billion yuan to 28 billion yuan; Second, CNOOC did not pay the final dividend in 2021. After listing, it will combine the proposed final dividend in 2021 and the special dividend for the 20th anniversary of listing in Hong Kong as special dividends, and the agency expects the dividend rate to reach about 8%; Third, CNOOC will launch the "green shoe" mechanism, that is, the over allotment option, which is conducive to stabilizing the performance after the listing of new shares.
"three barrels of oil" gathering A-Shares
CNOOC's A-share issuance price is 10.80 yuan / share. Before the exercise of the over allotment option, the issuance scale is 2.6 billion shares, accounting for 5.50% of the total issued shares of the company after the completion of the issuance; If the over allotment option of the A-share issuance is fully exercised, the issuance scale after the completion of the issuance will be 2.990 billion shares, accounting for 6.28% of the total issued shares of the company after the completion of the issuance.
CNOOC is the first of the three barrels of oil to be listed overseas. On February 27, 2001, the company publicly issued American depositary receipts and was listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the securities code of "CEO".
Because the company was included in the list of non SDN military related companies managed by the office of foreign assets control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury (which has been replaced by the list of non SDN China military industrial complex enterprises), Americans are prohibited from trading the company's publicly traded securities, derivative securities of such securities, or securities designed to invest in such securities. Affected by this, on February 26, 2021, the New York Stock Exchange announced that its regulatory authorities had decided to start delisting procedures for the company's American depositary shares, and suspended the trading of the company's American depositary shares from March 9, 2021.
CNOOC filed a reconsideration request with the NYSE on March 10, 2021. The NYSE decided to maintain the original delisting decision on October 8, 2021, and the delisting of the company's ADSS took effect after the market was closed on October 22, 2021.
After delisting from US stocks affected by sanctions in 2021, CNOOC H shares were also affected by this, and foreign investors sold off. The A-share listing means that "three barrels of oil" will all return to A-shares.
According to the prospectus, CNOOC's main business is the exploration, development, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas. It is the largest offshore crude oil and natural gas producer in China and one of the world's largest independent oil and gas exploration and production groups. By the end of 2020, the company had net proven reserves of about 5.37 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a record high; The service life of reserves has been maintained at more than 10 years in recent three years. From 2018 to 2020, the reserve substitution rate of the company was 126%, 144% and 136% respectively, and the reserve substitution rate remained high.
From 2018 to 2020, CNOOC's net oil and gas output was 475 million barrels of oil equivalent, 506 million barrels of oil equivalent and 528 million barrels of oil equivalent respectively, which continued to increase steadily, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.45%. In 2021, the company's net output reached 573 million barrels of oil equivalent, exceeding the annual oil and gas production target and reaching a new record.
Looking forward to the future, the company said that it would continue to seek effective production growth. The target of reserve replacement rate in 2022 is no less than 130%, and the annual net production targets from 2022 to 2024 are 0.6 to 0.61 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 0.64 to 0.65 billion barrels of oil equivalent and 0.68 to 0.69 billion barrels of oil equivalent respectively.
last year's record high performance
CNOOC has performed well in the past two years. In 2021, the company vigorously promoted the increase of reserves and production, insisted on improving quality, reducing cost and increasing efficiency, solidly promoted the construction of major projects, firmly implemented scientific and technological innovation, and actively promoted green and low-carbon development. The annual net output reached 573 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of about 8.5% year-on-year, exceeding the annual oil and gas production target and reaching a new record.
In 2021, thanks to the rising international oil price and good cost control, the company's profit reached the best level in history. The company achieved an operating revenue of 246112 billion yuan in the whole year, an increase of 58.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 70.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.77%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 68.171 billion yuan, an increase of 219% over last year.
The strong performance also makes the issuance price of CNOOC more attractive. Based on the company's annual net profit of 70.32 billion yuan in 2021, the total market value of Hong Kong shares as of April 20 was about 406288 billion yuan. Calculated at 10.80 yuan per share, without considering the over allotment option, the P / E ratio of the corresponding issue price was only about 6 times.
In addition, CNOOC expects to achieve an operating revenue of about 69 billion yuan to 83 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 32% to 58%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was about 24 billion yuan to 28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62% to 89%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was about 23.3 billion yuan to 27.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61% to 89%.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) it is estimated that CNOOC's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 will be 114.7 billion yuan. Without exercising the over allotment right, the issue price of A-Shares will be 10.8 yuan / share, corresponding to 4.5 times of PE.
after listing, there will be dividend bonus
CNOOC has always been generous in dividend distribution, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that compared with the historical dividend distribution of international peers, CNOOC's historical dividend proportion is 51% ~ 75%, corresponding to the dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks of 3.6% ~ 6.3%, which is higher than that of international peers.
CNOOC said in its annual report in 2021 that in the face of the new capital market environment, the company will continue to strive to create value for shareholders and realize shareholder returns in time.
CNOOC said that the global economy will grow by 4.3% in 2021, and the Chinese government proposed that China's economic growth target in 2022 is 5.5%.
Even in the context of low-carbon transformation, oil and gas will still account for more than 50% of global primary energy consumption for a long time. The company will continue to increase oil and gas reserves and production, promote green energy transformation, promote independent innovation in science and technology, implement quality and efficiency upgrading, and continuously improve its value creation ability to bring greater returns to shareholders.
In the next three years, on the premise that the proposed dividend for each year is approved by the general meeting of shareholders, the annual dividend payment rate will not be less than 40%, and the absolute value of the annual dividend will not be less than HK $0.70 per share (including tax). Meanwhile, in 2022, the company will also repurchase shares within the scope authorized by the general meeting of shareholders at an appropriate time.
It is noteworthy that CNOOC also prepared a dividend "gift package" for the new A-share shareholders. The company said in its annual report that in order to avoid affecting the progress of the company's RMB share issuance, the board of directors decided not to recommend the payment of the 2021 final dividend temporarily, and will announce the special dividend declaration scheme according to the progress of the RMB share issuance, and declare the 2021 final dividend originally proposed to be paid and the special dividend for the 20th anniversary of listing in Hong Kong as a special dividend.
"According to the minimum dividend ratio of 40%, the dividend amount is expected to be no less than 28.1 billion yuan. Calculated according to the historical average dividend ratio of 60%, the corresponding dividend amount can reach 42.2 billion yuan, the corresponding dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks can reach 10%, and the corresponding dividend yield of A-share issue price of 10.8 yuan / share is about 8% Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) analyst Zhang Xixi said.
breaks frequently and needs to pay more attention to fundamentals
Since this year, the frequent breaking of new shares has also led to the abandonment of many investors. On April 12, the results of Jingwei Hengrun issuance of new shares on the science and innovation board were released. The amount of abandonment reached 395 million yuan, and the proportion of abandonment reached a rare 108698%. The abandonment rate was the highest since the implementation of the credit subscription system of new shares in 2016. In terms of the number of shares abandoned, 9.67 million shares were issued online, while the number of shares abandoned was as high as 3.26 million, accounting for more than one third. That means that more than one-third of the successful investors chose to abandon the purchase.
In the process of CNOOC's subscription, online investors gave up the subscription of 22.43 million shares, and the subscription amount also reached 242 million yuan.
However, from the perspective of market performance, among the companies recently abandoned by everyone, there are many enterprises with excellent quality. In particular, some new shares have a good track, stable orders and high profit certainty in the next three years. It is understandable to give a higher valuation.
Whether it is "innovation" or other terms, the essence is securities investment, and the core is still based on the company's value. In the early stage of business development, some newly listed companies have sprouted in the industry, new enterprises and broad growth space. Naturally, the earlier they invest, the better. For example, you bought Maotai and other stocks at the beginning of listing. However, some companies have too high issue prices, and investors may suffer losses if they do not identify and participate.
In a word, "playing new" is not a business that makes no loss. The final income still depends on the value and price of the stock. Before playing new, we should have a full understanding and cognition of the listed enterprises and rationally participate in the subscription of new shares. For new shares that are not optimistic, you can choose not to participate. You can't first "close your eyes and make a new" and then "abandon the purchase in violation of regulations", which will not only affect your new qualification, but also have a negative impact on the order of new share issuance.
