Looking back on Wednesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index inertia fell, and the gem index showed a pulse downward pattern. The Shanghai index was relatively resistant to decline. Near noon, the Shanghai index once pulled up and nearly turned red, and then turned around and went down. The Shanghai index followed the gem index down and ushered in a sharp decline.
As mentioned by Dongguan securities, the index fluctuated downward all day on Wednesday, with the largest decline on the gem, poor market profit-making effect and net outflow of funds from the north. However, with the continuous development of the steady growth policy, it is expected to drive the market active. It is expected that the market will fluctuate and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation of the sector and the change of volume energy . In operation, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, focusing on finance, food and beverage, electrical equipment, steel Coal and other industries.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that at present, the market continues to grind the bottom spontaneously, and the early index is low or under great pressure, so it is necessary to focus on the observation of the market's carrying capacity . In terms of operation, investors can continue to maintain low or empty positions, adopt a wait-and-see strategy, and wait for the market direction to be clear before making subsequent decisions.
Technically speaking, Guosheng Securities said, at present, China has limited room for quantitative easing monetary policy under the background that many central banks have started the cycle of raising interest rates, especially under the background that the interest rate gap between China and the United States has been inverted and has an expanding trend . In terms of operation, pay attention to the support of the Shanghai stock index near 3140. If it falls below within a day and fails to recover, it is necessary to operate cautiously in the short term, reduce the position, and wait for the market to stop falling and stabilize.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned that suggested that investors should watch more and move less, and pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight downward trend of the Shanghai stock index is more likely, and the short-term shock downward trend of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the news of standard reduction and resumption of work and production over the weekend failed to bring sustainable opportunities to the market, pessimistic expectations have not been fully released in the process of continuous shock, the market continues to find the bottom, and the value style still occupies an advantage in general , the growth sector needs to focus on the changes in fundamentals, and the service industry and large consumption under the expectation of epidemic repair, such as commercial retail and automobile industry chain, etc, Can continue to pay attention.
Macroscopically, Bohai Securities said that the continuous force of the steady growth policy will help boost market expectations and reduce the impact of the epidemic on the performance side looking forward to the future, although external factors still restrain the current market, short-term A shares may continue to fluctuate . However, at this stage, the risk premium calculated by the SSE index is at a high level, and higher risk compensation is conducive to the choice of long-term allocation.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that the policy tone of "steady growth" has not changed at this stage. It is expected that with the continuous catalysis of the policy, "steady growth" sector will still be the main line of the market ; Considering that the disclosure peak of the first quarterly report will gradually enter next week, we can pay attention to the sectors whose performance of the first quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations, and focus on the upstream links; In addition, we can also pay attention to the rebound opportunity of the automobile sector under the resumption of work and production in Shanghai.
How to grasp the investment opportunity of returning to work after the epidemic Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) mentioned that should focus on two dimensions: one is the industry with strong downstream demand and high prosperity, and the other is the industry with synchronous recovery of industrial chain supply chain . 1) In the order of repair, the recovery of manufacturing industry is faster than consumption; 2) Unlike the consumer industry, the manufacturing industry disrupts supply due to the epidemic and can make up for it after the epidemic; 3) With the recovery of production capacity, industries with strong downstream demand will perform better in the repair of the epidemic; 4) Pay attention to industries that can recover the industrial chain in a coordinated manner. Therefore, it is suggested to pay active attention to the main manufacturing sectors in the Yangtze River Delta, such as semiconductor, automobile and supporting industrial chain, and chemical industry.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the epidemic situation in some areas showed signs of improvement and began to organize the resumption of work and production. The consumer sector most affected by the epidemic in the early stage benefited the most market style four main logics from cycle to consumption .
First, from the perspective of market style interpretation the cycle and consumption have a seesaw effect. Since this year, the cycle has significantly outperformed consumption. The core reason is that commodity prices are at a high level under the influence of geopolitics and other factors. However, from the perspective of subsequent interpretation, the price of industrial products will be affected by the decline of global demand. The IMF's latest global economic outlook significantly lowered the expectation of global economic growth, The excess return of cyclical stocks is expected to converge.
Second, the transmission of ppi to CPI is still the main theme of this year , the IMF revised this year's global inflation expectations, and the consumer sector is expected to benefit from the upward CPI environment.
Third, from the perspective of valuation dimension , the valuation of some consumer sectors such as medicine and biology, food processing and household appliances is at the bottom, and the valuation of weighted industries in the cycle sector such as chemical industry and nonferrous metals is at a high level.
Fourth, from the perspective of catalyst , the epidemic in some areas of this round will gradually enter the final stage, and the time when the greatest impact on consumption is about to pass. Under the background of uncertain external demand situation, expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will be the main focus of the policy.
The agency further analyzed that focuses on three sub areas . First, food and beverage, catering and tourism, hotels, automobiles, household appliances and other industries that have been fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation; Second, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery benefiting from the rise in product prices and inflation; Third, pharmaceutical and biological products with low valuation.
