Today (April 21), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low again. At the beginning of the market, there was a performance of rising and turning red. Then they rushed up and fell back, and gradually fell. Near noon, the diving range of the stock index accelerated, showing a pulse downward pattern, and the weakness was at a glance.
From the disk point of view, the financial “three brothers” strongly supported a shares, the textile and garment sector showed resistance to decline, the other industries and concept sectors were “green”, the general decline market reappeared, and the local profit-making effect was poor. In terms of textile and garment sector, as of press time, Rumere Co.Ltd(301088) 20cm limit, tamus, Shanghai Dragon Corporation(600630) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) limit, and Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Shanghai Metersbonwe Fashion&Accessories Co.Ltd(002269) , Hongda High-Tech Holding Co.Ltd(002144) , Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) .
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] bank
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that the current epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the economy, and the annual economic growth target remains, which means that the worse the current economy is, the greater the demand for follow-up policies. Recently, the national Standing Committee has continuously released positive signals, and the steady growth policy can be expected to increase. At present, the performance of listed banks is stable and the asset quality is solid. Under the tone of stable growth and stable real estate policy, we continue to be optimistic about the excess return of the banking sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention.
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that bank stocks still have great prospects. Under the background of tightening international liquidity and China’s steady growth, if the effect of steady growth is confirmed by data, such as stabilizing investment growth, the overall market will be conducive to value style. Before confirmation, in the tug of war between the epidemic and external adverse factors and the expectation of stable growth, the market fluctuates in the style rotation, and there are still opportunities for high-quality bank stocks with undervalued value and regional banks with stable growth.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that from the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks was further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality performance was stable and good. Looking forward to the second quarter, the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the industry in the past 3-4 years, the pressure of non-performing generation is expected to be controllable, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) China’s goal of steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies are expected to continue in 2022, help improve economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.59x, which is still at a historical low. The pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest paying active attention to it.
[Topic 2] securities companies
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that there are frequent policies and it is optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the current valuation of the securities sector deviates from the fundamentals, and the valuation is at a historical low. Under the main line of “steady growth”, the repair of the undervalued financial sector is still worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: (1) leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and gradually increasing market share in the securities business sector; (2) In the era of wealth management, it is recommended to have differentiated competitiveness in the field of Internet wealth management and benefit from the development of fund subsidiaries.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the economic data in the beginning of the year “exceeded” the expectation, and the economic target “exceeded” the expectation. At the same time, the micro perception and some high-frequency data were poor, and the market responded to the cautious expectation that the policy stimulus slowed down and weakened, and continued to callback. Especially since March, the rebound of the epidemic situation and the tightening of prevention and control policies have repeatedly occurred in the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. It is expected that the economic data will weaken in March and it will be difficult to improve in April. In this context, the brokerage index continued to decline significantly below the central valuation, providing the premise and foundation for “squat take-off”.
[Topic 3] insurance
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) mentioned that the property insurance sector with improved fundamentals should continue to be recommended, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of life insurance. In terms of property insurance, 2022 is expected to usher in a “simultaneous rise in volume and price”, with a significant improvement in fundamentals. First, “premium growth promotes leverage”. In February, the cumulative growth rate of property insurance premiums of listed insurance companies expanded again. In addition, it benefited from the stable growth of motor vehicle ownership, the improvement of commercial insurance coverage rate and the growth of insurance amount of the three parties. It is expected that the growth rate of auto insurance premiums in the industry will be about 10% in 2022, while the decline of benefit rates of leading insurance companies is expected to increase by about 12%. Therefore, it is expected to promote the growth of property insurance premiums by 15%, and the year-on-year growth of net assets will increase the premium leverage and investment leverage, It is expected to promote the improvement of roe.
Second, “the slowdown of auto insurance competition promotes the decline of cor”. With the sharp rise of cor of small and medium-sized insurance enterprises caused by the comprehensive reform in one year, it is expected to force small and medium-sized insurance companies to reduce the cost investment, slow down the competition, which is conducive to the decline of the industry cost rate, the weakening of the expectation of major disasters is expected to reduce the compensation rate, and the overall COR is expected to decrease. “Simultaneous rise in volume and price” is expected to promote the year-on-year improvement of roe and net profit of leading companies. Considering the current low valuation of property insurance companies, it is expected to boost the valuation with the continuous recovery of fundamentals.
Huachuang securities mentioned that when the current valuation is low and the fundamentals are stable, the allocation value and defense advantages of the insurance sector are still prominent. We believe that it is not a bad thing that the extreme situation forces the industry to settle down and think. All companies eradicate the depression in the dilemma and find innovation space to highlight the encirclement, which will jointly promote the industry to a new stage of high-quality development.
[theme 4] textile and garment
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that the recent annual reports of textile and clothing companies have revealed that sports brands at home and abroad have shown brilliant performance and operating efficiency. Since mid March, the epidemic has had a significant negative impact on the fundamentals and valuation of the sector, but it does not affect the medium and long-term improvement of high-quality local sports brands and the growth prospects of the industry. Some manufacturing enterprises are affected by downstream demand transmission, but the companies with the advantage of share improvement still have a dominant growth. From the recent data, the cost pressure is gradually controllable. We are optimistic about the fundamentals and the opportunity for the rebound of valuation under the background of historical low valuation. Hong Kong stocks mainly recommend Li Ning, Anta sports, Shenzhou International, Tebu international, Bosideng and taobo, and A-Shares mainly recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that the trend of national tide continues, and it is optimistic about the growth toughness of the leader in the post epidemic era. Investment logic in 2022: 1) Fundamentals: in the post epidemic era, China’s sports leaders are more resilient. According to the data of the prospective industry research institute, on the one hand, the year-on-year decline of the sportswear sector in 2020 was only 2.4%, which was significantly less than that of other sectors; On the other hand, the moving sector will recover fastest in 2021. Combined with the external guidance of listed leaders, despite factors such as high base + uncertainty of epidemic situation, China’s top brands are still cautious and optimistic about the sales expectation in 2022. 2) Valuation: China’s leader has returned to the level before the epidemic in 2019, and there is room for upward repair in the future. Combined with its own fundamentals and the medium and long-term prosperity of the industry, the current valuation level of China’s leading enterprises is underestimated. In addition, compared with overseas leaders, China’s leading brands are relatively better and more sustainable, and their profitability and growth rate are expected to obtain a certain valuation premium in the future.
