Today (April 21), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued the weak adjustment pattern. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated and fell across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock market fluctuated and turned red, and then plunged back rapidly. In the afternoon, the index rose rapidly, but it fell again after only 15 minutes. Finally, the three major stock indexes fell by more than 2%, the Shanghai index fell 3100 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index hit a new low, showing a panoramic view of the decline.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that it still needs a strong boost from external forces to reverse the situation in the future. It is suggested that investors pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external factors. It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term, and the gem is more likely to fluctuate in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
At the same time, Rongwei Securities pointed out that the comprehensive judgment of the second bottom of the market is mainly affected by the international situation and the expected interest rate increase of the United States, and the internal risk of the market is small. In addition, the situation of general decline is difficult to be sustainable, so it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic. Pay attention to avoiding high valuation varieties, bargain hunting and allocating undervalued targets, and pay attention to the bottom opportunities of pre increase in annual report and first quarter report and high score red targets.
I. securities firm concept
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that there are frequent policies and it is optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the current valuation of the securities sector deviates from the fundamentals, and the valuation is at a historical low. Under the main line of “steady growth”, the repair of the undervalued financial sector is still worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: (1) leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and gradually increasing market share in the securities business sector; (2) In the era of wealth management, it is recommended to have differentiated competitiveness in the field of Internet wealth management and benefit from the development of fund subsidiaries.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the economic data in the beginning of the year “exceeded” the expectation, and the economic target “exceeded” the expectation. At the same time, the micro perception and some high-frequency data were poor, and the market responded to the cautious expectation that the policy stimulus slowed down and weakened, and continued to callback. Especially since March, the rebound of the epidemic situation and the tightening of prevention and control policies have repeatedly occurred in the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. It is expected that the economic data will weaken in March and it will be difficult to improve in April. In this context, the brokerage index continued to decline significantly below the central valuation, providing the premise and foundation for “squat take-off”.
II, textile and garment
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that the trend of national tide continues, and it is optimistic about the growth toughness of the leader in the post epidemic era. Investment logic in 2022: 1) Fundamentals: in the post epidemic era, China’s sports leaders are more resilient. According to the data of the prospective industry research institute, on the one hand, the year-on-year decline of the sportswear sector in 2020 was only 2.4%, which was significantly less than that of other sectors; On the other hand, the moving sector will recover fastest in 2021. Combined with the external guidance of listed leaders, despite factors such as high base + uncertainty of epidemic situation, China’s top brands are still cautious and optimistic about the sales expectation in 2022. 2) Valuation: China’s leader has returned to the level before the epidemic in 2019, and there is room for upward repair in the future. Combined with its own fundamentals and the medium and long-term prosperity of the industry, the current valuation level of China’s leading enterprises is underestimated. In addition, compared with overseas leaders, China’s leading brands are relatively better and more sustainable, and their profitability and growth rate are expected to obtain a certain valuation premium in the future.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that the recent annual reports of textile and clothing companies have revealed that sports brands at home and abroad have shown brilliant performance and operating efficiency. Since mid March, the epidemic has had a significant negative impact on the fundamentals and valuation of the sector, but it does not affect the medium and long-term improvement of high-quality local sports brands and the growth prospects of the industry. Some manufacturing enterprises are affected by downstream demand transmission, but the companies with the advantage of share improvement still have a dominant growth. From the recent data, the cost pressure is gradually controllable. We are optimistic about the fundamentals and the opportunity for the rebound of valuation under the background of historical low valuation. Hong Kong stocks mainly recommend Li Ning, Anta sports, Shenzhou International, Tebu international, Bosideng and taobo, and A-Shares mainly recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) .
III. brewing industry
The river becomes warm in spring, and the Baijiu river is the prophet. Now, the restrictions on epidemic control and large-scale movement of people are still the main reasons for the demand for baijiu. The epidemic has been extended from mid 3 to mid 4, and the impact on the sales volume of Baijiu is relatively weak. On the margin of ours, 1) the recent positive signs of the epidemic are increasing. It is expected that Baijiu consumption will be fully restored in the short peak season of the Dragon Boat Festival, and the whole year is expected to continue to achieve high growth. 2) Jiangsu and other places began to require the restoration of Suzhou Expressway crossings. The previous measures to restrict the flow of personnel on a large scale were relaxed on the edge, and the secondary and high-end performance flexibility was relatively large in the recovery of business activities. 3) The first quarterly reports of major liquor enterprises have successively disclosed that the mainstream liquor enterprises are expected to continue to achieve rapid growth and continue to be optimistic about the first quarterly report. 4) we have concentrated on the channel inventory problem, and now we are in the inventory stage of Baijiu off-season, and the inventory level is slightly lower than the same period in previous years. Most of the Baijiu valuation has dropped to a more comfortable interval. With the orderly development of Shanghai’s resumption of production and resumption of production, the Yangtze River Delta integration has led to the relatively beneficial effect of the emblem and the Su Jiu. In the price segment, we expect that the sub high-end price segment with more concentrated business banquets will recover in advance.
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the mood is good and the consumption recovery is on the way. Baijiu: the mood is good, and the recovery is on the way. The annual report disclosure season or boost confidence in the market, most liquor enterprises in 2021 achieved relatively bright results, the first quarter of 2022 has laid a solid foundation for the whole year growth. In the current situation of rebound, some regional consumer scenarios are missing or causing demand decline, and distributors’ confidence is frustrated. However, the two quarter Baijiu is selling low season, and the short-term epidemic situation is not changed.
It is a highly selective and high-end Baijiu sector with risk resistance and supply and demand. Maotai had a bright growth rate in the first quarter, strong determination in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) reform, volume control and price support, and the valuation was cost-effective. The highest growth rate of the second high Baijiu sector is affected by the epidemic spread to small, the advantage market, large single product volume potential strong strong growth wine enterprises.
Beer: the epidemic has impacted the short-term sales of beer. With the decline of valuation, the medium and long-term layout opportunities are highlighted. We look forward to the inflection point of the epidemic. Under the influence of the epidemic, Shanghai and other places have taken strict sealing and control measures, and the beer drinking channels have been seriously damaged. At the same time, the non drinking channels have also been affected by policies such as home isolation in many places, the offline passenger flow has decreased, and the mobile sales have declined. At present, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) mainly distributes in Shandong market, and the operating revenue of Shandong market will account for 49.77% in 2021. In March, Shandong market was seriously affected by the epidemic, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) sales fell significantly. China Resources beer market is relatively scattered. On the whole, the impact of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is greater than that of China Resources beer Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . Beer manufacturers began to prepare goods in mid and late April. In the peak season from May to August, the overall valuation of the beer sector has fallen, and the opportunities for medium and long-term layout have become prominent. They look forward to the inflection point of the epidemic and the demand rebound.
IV. logistics industry
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s cold chain logistics industry started late and developed for a short time. At present, the scale of China’s cold chain logistics industry has reached more than 380 billion yuan, thanks to the improvement of the national economic level and the upgrading of household consumption. However, there is still a big gap between China’s cold chain logistics industry and developed countries in infrastructure construction. In 2020, the per capita cold storage capacity is only 0.13 cubic meters. In terms of industry competition, the concentration is still low. The market share of the top 100 enterprises is about 18%, and the first city in the industry accounts for less than 2%. However, in recent years, policy support has been strengthened, and the cold chain logistics development plan has been issued to help the construction of modern cold chain logistics system.
The agency believes that at present, China’s cold chain logistics industry is still in a period of rapid development. Compared with overseas developed countries, China’s cold chain industry has low concentration and low degree of standardization. At present, the competition among the top 100 enterprises is relatively fierce, and each enterprise has entered a period of rising capital investment. Looking forward to the future, the demand for food supply chain and medical logistics is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the improvement of temperature control technology and the improvement of industry standards also drive the development of cold chain logistics industry into a new stage, and the growth potential of the industry is still large. In terms of subject matter, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) which has laid out the cold chain industry earlier and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) which are expanding diversified business are recommended, with emphasis on JD logistics and Zhongtong express of Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the epidemic did not hinder the long-term logic of the sector, and continued to recommend the e-commerce express industry. Looking back at the first quarter, the unit price of e-commerce express enterprises at the head was resilient, the overall year-on-year improvement trend remained unchanged, and the stability of the industry pattern was still being verified. At present, the e-commerce express industry has entered a new development stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. The development strategy of head enterprises has also changed from cost differentiation to income differentiation, paying more attention to the balance of service quality, operating profit and market share. The closure and control of the epidemic only affects the rhythm of the growth of express business volume, and does not change the trend of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the whole industry under pattern optimization. In the new development stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is much greater than the impact of business volume changes. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the gradual repair of cash flow and the continuous improvement of profitability in the e-commerce express industry under the support of the improved pattern.
