Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of the trading, the stock index rebounded after inertia downward, then both turned red and upward, and always operated around the top of the red trading; In the afternoon, the stock index fell again, and the Shanghai index and Shenzhen Composite Index performed better than the gem index.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the two cities got out of the shrinking rebound market on Monday, especially the gem index ushered in a shadow cross after a continuous sharp decline, short-term small and medium-sized enterprises may rebound. Considering that the market will still be in the game state of stock funds before the Spring Festival, we should also pay attention to high selling after the rebound . It is suggested that investors, on the one hand, pay close attention to the relevant undervalued and high-quality targets under the steady growth policy, and can also appropriately grasp the oversold rebound opportunities of some track stocks with guaranteed performance.
From the technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Monday, the stock index was first depressed and then raised, and the technical level stopped falling moderately. The profit-making effect of individual stock plates was good. In addition, the continuous net inflow of funds from the North boosted market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to rebound after shock and stabilization, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of plates and changes in volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that is not pessimistic about the market . On the one hand, the adjustment of A-Shares in early 2022 is more due to relatively short-term factors such as fund behavior, overseas factors and structural overvaluation; On the other hand, in the medium and long term, the profitability of A-Shares is basically good, the overall valuation quantile is reasonable, and the policy advantages have not changed. It maintains the strategic view of January and believes that the Q1 market can be expected to rise.
In terms of configuration, the agency further analyzed that one of the main lines of is still the industry benefiting from the “steady growth” policy. Mainly electricity, infrastructure (mechanical equipment, building materials), real estate and related industrial chains (household appliances, light industry), etc. The second main line of is the large consumption sector , mainly food and beverage, consumer electronics, medicine (a segment with stronger consumption attribute), agriculture, etc. The third main line of is the sector (mainly with PEG less than 2) with strong performance certainty in the first half of 2022, mainly semiconductor, Dianxin and military industry.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that there are obvious signs of institutional position adjustment after the festival. The fully adjusted undervalued traditional blue chips have won the favor of the market again since last year. It is suggested that investors should grasp them carefully. it is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely . Investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in engineering construction, cement and building materials, household appliances, agriculture, medicine and other industries in the short term, and continue to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
However, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) pointed out that the market structure of has improved. However, it is still difficult to determine the beginning of the rebound, and the shock may stabilize or remain the main tone . Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in operation, control positions, less impulsive trading and wait patiently. In terms of industry, the middle line can continue to focus on national defense and military industry, electronics and non bank financial (Securities) industries, and it is recommended to wait and see for the short term.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the rebound of index is mainly driven by the weight direction of oversold rebound, but we need to pay more attention to the energy situation. At present, the overall pattern is still weak , and the position should continue to be controlled within 30%. The Shanghai index and gem index deviated from the bottom at the 30 minute level, and there is still demand to rebound in the short term. As one of clean energy, hydrogen energy has obvious policy support and long-term investment value. Coupled with the short-term catalysis of the Winter Olympic Games, this direction deserves attention, but we should pay attention to the rhythm and focus on low absorption. In contrast, the digital currency and Yuan universe sectors still have sustained speculation opportunities in the short term, and pay attention to the trend of core stocks.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities said that under the background of the reduction of capital risk preference in the current market, it is recommended to allocate defensive varieties with low and undervalued value in the short term, such as infrastructure, real estate industry chain, insurance and other sectors; After the release of market risks, the high growth rate of new energy, photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors still deserve attention. However, after the sharp rise of the sector last year, each subject will be extremely differentiated. The strategy of lying on the boom sector is difficult to work, which will further test the stock selection ability of investors .
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that this adjustment is similar to that after the Spring Festival last year. It is “too cold at high altitude”. which industries are “more resistant to decline” and can reach a new high after rebound? at present, the industry that breaks the situation against the trend needs to have two characteristics: there is large incremental space for policy support and the fundamentals are at the bottom .
Main line 1: steady growth is the most likely starting point. Counter cyclical regulation is the consensus expectation of the market, and the divergence lies in the direction. Select the fields with small capital constraints and abundant project ends. According to the project approval and the construction rhythm of new infrastructure projects, the force direction with the largest growth rate in 2022 will focus on rail transit, charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet in new infrastructure. In addition, large infrastructure central enterprises (especially transportation, energy and water conservancy) are expected to be driven .
Main line 2: consumption driven by “promoting consumption” policy ; Since the end of 2021, major ministries and commissions have made intensive statements on the key development direction in 2022. The policy strength is generally stronger than that at the end of 2020, and it is more clear to drive new energy vehicles to the countryside, home appliances to the countryside and solve the shortage of auto chips. White electricity and auto parts in consumption have the policy driving force. In 2021, the factors that suppress demand are gradually alleviated, and the industry has the catalyst for prosperity.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that had a benign adjustment at the beginning of the year, the restless market in spring was in the process, and the growth allocation was still positive . ① Under the tone of cross cycle adjustment in the first quarter, monetary policy will still release positive signals, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is still expected, and the marginal easing of liquidity will support the growth valuation. ② According to the three-stage deduction of “valuation → performance → valuation” of the growth market, it is currently experiencing a transition period from performance to valuation driven. The adjustment of the growth sector is more benign, and the adjustment time is expected to be between 1-1.5 months. Therefore, spring agitation continues to follow four main lines and is configured around the growth main line.
Main line 1: continue to be optimistic about growth direction , including the upstream of “double carbon” green power, wind and solar hydrogen storage and new energy, the middle and upper reaches of semiconductors with improved prosperity, military industry, and the computer sector driven by style diffusion and sentiment.
Main line 2: steady growth of building materials, real estate and its upstream and downstream . The main force of short-term steady growth is still infrastructure and real estate. The real estate regulation policy has been marginal relaxed, and the better repair of investment and sales than pessimistic expectations is worthy of attention.
Main line 3: the brokerage sector of the restless wind vane in spring.
Main line 4: consumer sector focusing on price rise, looking for opportunities along the main line of price rise.
In terms of theme, theme investment opportunities of digital currency and artificial intelligence . Continue to focus on the accelerated landing of technology and the digital currency catalyzed by the Winter Olympic Games; And artificial intelligence theme investment opportunities that bring upstream and downstream linkage opportunities such as chips, computers and cloud computing.
(source: China stock market news research center)
