Core view: from a comprehensive point of view, the impact of the epidemic on Shanghai may be greater than that of Wuhan in 2020. The downward pressure on the economy is further intensified, and the time lag of policy transmission is further lengthened. At present, the power of monetary policy still has not seen actual results. In the state of suppressed demand, it is difficult to realize the smooth transmission of monetary policy. If we want to achieve the economic goal of high-quality development, we may still need to look forward to greater fiscal and industrial policies in the follow-up.
How to track the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain: we choose 16 indicators from three aspects: transportation, warehousing and production to track and characterize the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain. In terms of transportation, seven monthly indicators reflect the overall logistics situation: ① PMI: delivery time, ② China transportation production index (CTSI) - freight, ③ China logistics industry prosperity index (LPI), ④ - ⑦ freight volume data (Comprehensive + railway + highway + water transportation); Two high-frequency indicators can more timely reflect the situation of highway vehicle and port freight: ① vehicle freight logistics index, ② year-on-year cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports; Two high-frequency indicators reflect the return of personnel: ① subway passenger volume in 10 cities and ② congestion index in 100 cities. Three monthly indicators reflect the storage inventory: ① PMI finished product inventory, ② PMI raw material inventory, and ③ China storage index. Two indicators reflect the production of the supply chain: ① capacity utilization (quarterly) and ② industrial power consumption (monthly).
How to spread the impact of supply chain: the automobile industry chain is greatly impacted, but the diffusion of automobile to other industries has little impact. From the input-output table, the automobile industry has a great impact on only 12 manufacturing industries, accounting for only about 10% of 88 manufacturing industries. However, the diffusion impact of the transportation and storage industry is much greater. 70 of all 153 industries are greatly affected by the transportation and storage industry.
After the introduction of the policy, the blocking points of the supply chain have been gradually dredged: the vehicle freight index has rebounded since mid April, and the number of national expressway toll stations and service areas has continued to decrease, indicating that the relevant policies for road freight have gradually taken effect since April and dredged the transportation links of the supply chain. The return of personnel across the country is recovering. The congestion delay index of 100 cities bottomed out around April 7, and the throughput index of Public Logistics Park bottomed out around April 5, and then began to rise.
Enlightenment and comparison of Hubei in 2020: at present, the epidemic prevention policies in various places are still stricter. Although it is expected that the sealing and control time in Shanghai may be less than that in Hubei, the time for complete normalization of production and life may continue to be lengthened. It is more difficult to realize high-intensity production similar to that in March 2020. The sealing time in Shanghai is in the peak production season in spring, and the interruption of supply chain will seriously affect the production and circulation links. Therefore, the disruption of order and the normal production rhythm will have a more serious impact than that in Hubei. From the perspective of industrial structure, other industries in Hubei are relatively more regional, and the main industries in Shanghai are more related to the national industrial chain and export industrial chain. In terms of export, Shanghai port can disperse the pressure of ships through other ports in the Yangtze River Delta, but the imported bulk cargo is subject to the stagnation of logistics in the city. In terms of macro environment, 2020 is more favorable than the current situation. China is facing the "triple pressure" of supply, demand and expectation. In the process of industrial transformation, it is also facing the crisis of systemic risks caused by the real estate industry. Compared with 2020, the macro environment is more "trapped at home and abroad". The impact of the closure of the epidemic on the economy may be no less than the loss caused by the epidemic in Hubei.
Risk warning: ensure that the relevant policies of the supply chain are not as expected; The strength of steady growth policy is less than expected; The epidemic situation has changed greatly.
