Main points:
The medical and beauty industry has obvious dual attribute characteristics. From the development history of the medical beauty industry, the early medical beauty was mainly used for post-war surgical repair, and then gradually developed into people’s pursuit of external beauty. With this development, the medical beauty industry has evolved from only medical attribute to the dual attribute characteristics of “medical” + “consumption”. We mainly analyze the medical beauty industry from two dimensions: 1) the medical dimension, strong supervision, high threshold of R & D technology, forward-looking product layout and first mover advantage brought by the speed of product approval determine the competition pattern and profit distribution pattern of all links of the industrial chain. 2) The dimension of consumption, product power, brand power and channel power, determine the positioning and competitiveness of products.
The growth rate of Chinese medical and American market is faster than that of the world. From 2020 to 2030, the CAGR of the global medical and American market scale is expected to exceed 10% and reach 11.1%. From 2021 to 2025, the market scale of the global medical and American industry will maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and then the growth rate will slow down to single digits in the next five years. The market scale of China’s medical beauty market has increased from 77.6 billion yuan in 2016 to 154.9 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of 18.9%. It is expected to reach 653.5 billion yuan in 2030 and 15.5% from 2020 to 2030.
The growth rate of the market scale of non-surgical projects in China is much higher than that of surgical projects. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2025, the CAGR of non-surgical projects in China will reach 21%, and that of surgical projects will reach 14%; From 2025 to 2030, the CAGR of non-surgical projects will decrease to 16%, which is still a double-digit growth, while the growth rate of surgical projects will decrease to 9%. Different from the structure of the global medical beauty market scale, the Chinese medical beauty market has shown that the market scale of non-surgical projects is larger than that of surgical projects since 2020, and the market scale ratio of non-surgical projects / surgical projects has gradually increased from about one time in 2020 to nearly two times in 2030, indicating that there is a huge growth space for non-surgical medical beauty projects in China.
The market competition of hyaluronic acid is fierce, and the import substitution effect may accelerate. At present, China’s hyaluronic acid market has a rich variety of products and full competition, with more than 10 participating manufacturers and more than 20 compliant products circulating in the market. The competitiveness of hyaluronic acid is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1) crosslinking technology and production process determine the safety, durability and comfort of products. 2) The approved indications determine the application prospect and competition pattern of the product. 3) The speed of approval determines the first mover advantage and competitive pattern of products. Sales data show that the concentration of Cr4 in the industry has decreased, from 70.3% in 2018 to 62.3% in 2020. We believe that the current competition in hyaluronic acid industry is relatively sufficient, and the import substitution effect of domestic manufacturers will accelerate. In the case of a large number of overlapping product indications, we suggest investing in companies with the following characteristics: 1) having strong R & D strength and being able to walk out of the differentiated competition route in the subdivided fields where the competition is insufficient and does not meet the needs of consumers; 2) It has certain industry foresight, fast product R & D and approval speed, and obtains the first mover advantage; 3) The brand is well known by the public and has strong marketing channel ability. Relevant recommended targets: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) .
The botulinum toxin market is in the stage of rapid growth, and the current competition pattern is good. China’s botulinum toxin market has a good competition pattern, with only four formal products. Botulinum toxin is a biological drug, which is strongly regulated in China. It takes a long time for products to be developed and approved for listing. Manufacturers can seize the market share by virtue of the first mover advantage. We recommend investing in companies with the following characteristics: 1) companies whose products have been approved for listing, strong brand influence and strong channel marketing ability; From the perspective of consumption, focus on companies with differentiated layout of consumer groups. 2) Companies whose products are currently in clinical stage and will be approved for listing in the next three years; At present, China’s botulinum toxin market is in the growth stage of rapid development. Missing the development window is not conducive to seizing market share. 3) At present, the officially approved indications of botulinum toxin are eyebrow lines and crow’s feet lines, and thin face and thin leg are super indications; In the context of stricter regulation of China’s medical and beauty industry, companies with more formal indications will occupy more market share. Relevant recommended targets: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Furui medical technology.
The market of regenerative injectable medical products is in its infancy and has great growth potential in the future. At present, the market of regenerative injectable skin fillers in China is in its infancy and has a large space in the future, but the competition pattern is not clear. The future competition pattern mainly depends on the manufacturer’s product positioning, marketing promotion, consumer education, the number of cooperative hospitals and doctors and other factors. We suggest to focus on companies with the following characteristics: 1) manufacturers with long-term confirmation of the safety and quality of the products themselves (introducing foreign products) and strong marketing and promotion ability should focus on the number of cooperative hospitals and medical students when the products have the first mover advantage. 2) The products with newly approved ingredients have not yet established consumer trust, and the effect needs to be verified in the real world. Focus on their market positioning, followed by the marketing promotion of products. Relevant recommended targets: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) .
Photoelectric medical and American instruments are mainly imported, and the market scale will continue to grow. With the rapid growth of terminal demand, based on the data of medical insight, we predict that the market scale of China’s energy source medical and beauty devices (compliance market) will maintain an average annual compound growth rate of 15% from 2021 to 2025, and the market scale will reach US $570 million in 2025. We believe that the optoelectronic medical and aesthetic equipment industry is a technology intensive industry with interdisciplinary integration, with high technical barriers. Moreover, the development of optoelectronic medical and aesthetic equipment in China is later than that in foreign countries, and imported brands have obvious first mover advantages. In the medium and short term, there is still a large gap between domestic brand technology and imported brands; At present, China’s optoelectronic projects are in the stage of rapid growth. In the future, China’s optoelectronic medical and American device market may still be dominated by imported brands. It is suggested to pay attention to companies with capital strength and strong marketing channels, which can enter the field of optoelectronic medical beauty by acquiring well-known foreign optoelectronic medical beauty equipment brands, and enjoy the dividends brought by the rapid growth of China’s optoelectronic medical beauty market. Related recommendation: Furui medical technology.
Investment suggestions:
China’s medical beauty industry is in the stage of rapid development, and the upstream pharmaceutical and mechanical product manufacturers will fully benefit. Among the injection medical and American products, the competition in hyaluronic acid industry is relatively fierce. It is recommended to pay attention to the company with differentiated product layout; The botulinum toxin industry has a good competition pattern and high industrial barriers. Companies with approved products will fully enjoy the industrial dividends brought by the first mover advantage; Regenerative injectable medical products are in the initial stage, with great development potential in the future. At present, the competition pattern is good, and the companies with approved products will benefit. The imported brands of optoelectronic medical and beauty equipment industry are dominant. It is suggested to pay attention to Chinese enterprises to enter this field through acquisition and enjoy the dividends brought by the rapid growth of the market in this sector. As of April 18, 2022, the P / E ratio of Shenwan medical beauty industry is 89 times, significantly 127 times lower than the average value. The valuation level of key targets has been at or below the historical average value, and the industry allocation value is prominent.
Risk tips:
The risk of intensified industry competition, the risk that the R & D, listing and promotion of new products are less than expected, the risk of regulatory policies and the risk of medical accidents.
