2022q1 national land supply and transaction
In terms of land supply, the national land transfer fee in 2022q1 was – 53% year-on-year, of which the single month land transfer fee in March was – 45% year-on-year. In 2022q1, a total of 840 million square meters of land construction were launched nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of – 22%. A total of 640 million square meters of land construction were traded, with a year-on-year increase of – 29%. The full caliber transfer fee was 0.62 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 53%, of which the residential transfer fee was 0.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 55%. According to the premium rate data, the premium rate of 2022q1 first tier cities is not high, including 0% in Guangdong and Shenzhen; The premium rates of second tier and third and fourth tier cities remained stable, but increased compared with the end of last year. In terms of auction rate, the national auction rate in 2022q1 has gradually decreased since January, from 13.59% in January to 7.85% in March.
Urban analysis of plots with high total price and high premium rate
In 2022q1, only two plots with a total price of more than 5 billion yuan were located in Beijing and Shanghai in February and March respectively. In terms of the number of cities with high premium rate, in March 2022, the number of cities with premium rate of more than 30% increased by 11 cities compared with February. From the data of full caliber land premium rate, the number of cities with a monthly premium rate of more than 30% in March was 14 (8 and 3 in January and February respectively), and the number of cities with a premium rate of more than 20% was 14 (15 and 10 in January and February respectively). From the data of residential land premium rate, the number of cities with a monthly premium rate of more than 30% in March was 11 (6 and 6 in January and February respectively), and the number of cities with a premium rate of more than 20% was 16 (8 and 11 in January and February respectively).
Land acquisition of real estate enterprises in 2022q1
In 2022q1, the land acquisition amount of leading real estate enterprises decreased by 68%, growth real estate enterprises decreased by 87% and medium-sized real estate enterprises decreased by 78%. From the year-on-year growth performance of each echelon’s land acquisition, the attitude of each echelon’s real estate enterprises towards land acquisition tended to be conservative in the first quarter, and the growth rate declined significantly. The land acquisition premium rate of 59 sample real estate enterprises has shown an overall downward trend since 2018, but after the implementation of the “two centralization” policy, the land acquisition premium rate decreased to 5.5% in 2022q1. In 2022q1, the proportion of land acquisition amount of sample real estate enterprises in first tier cities decreased from 18% in 2021 to 14%, that in second tier cities decreased from 54% to 53%, and that in third and fourth tier cities increased by 3PCT. The sample real estate enterprises are still dominated by second tier cities.
Investment advice
In the first quarter of 2022, affected by the credit risk and epidemic situation of real estate enterprises, the performance of real estate sales was poor, and the basic data of the industry continued to decline. However, with the obvious signs of marginal improvement at the policy side and the continuous relaxation of regulatory policies in various regions, it is expected that the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair, and continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of the sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc. Relevant beneficiary objects include Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Longhu group, Xuhui holding group, Greentown China, China overseas development, etc.
Risk tips
The recovery of sales was less than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
