\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Events
On the evening of March 31, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report: the revenue in 2021 was 3.89 billion yuan, an increase of 18.33% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million yuan, an increase of 20.28% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 526 million yuan, an increase of 16.69% at the same time.
Key investment points
Major products have increased, and the increase in costs has put pressure on the gross profit margin
In 2021, the company's revenue was 3.890 billion yuan (with an increase of 18%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 558 million yuan (with an increase of 20%), and the non net profit deducted was 526 million yuan (with an increase of 17%), which was slightly better than the data disclosed in the previous performance express. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 874 million yuan (with an increase of 21%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million yuan (with an increase of 10%), and the non net profit deducted was 95 million yuan (with an increase of 4%). The revenue accelerated in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, and the profit was suppressed due to the pressure of rising costs. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 37.83% (with a decrease of 1.5pct) and that in 2021q4 was 36.35% (with a decrease of 2.25pct), which was caused by the rise of raw materials; The net profit margin was 14.52% (with an increase of 0.4pct) in 2021 and 12.91% (with a decrease of 1.5pct) in 2021q4, which was caused by the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of sales expense rate of 3.8pct.
In terms of products, the revenue of moon cake series products in 2021 was 1.521 billion yuan (with an increase of 11%), accounting for 39.53% (with a decrease of 2.9pct), and the gross profit margin was 56.46% (with a decrease of 2pct), which was caused by the rise of raw materials; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 233 million yuan (with an increase of 23%), accounting for 27.14% (with an increase of 0.3pct). In 2021, the revenue of quick-frozen food was 848 million yuan (with an increase of 9%), accounting for 22.04% (with a decrease of 2pct), and the gross profit margin was 36.18% (with an increase of 1PCT); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 236 million yuan (with an increase of 22%), accounting for 27.45% (basically the same).
Catering maintained high growth, and the volume and price of quick-frozen food increased simultaneously
From the perspective of volume and price, the sales volume of moon cake series in 2021 is 15300 tons (with an increase of 4%), and the corresponding ton price is 99700 yuan / ton (with an increase of 6%). In 2021, the sales volume of quick-frozen food was 35300 tons (with an increase of 8.5%), and the corresponding ton price was 24000 yuan / ton (with an increase of 1%).
In 2021, the revenue of catering industry was 725 million yuan (with an increase of 48%), which was caused by the low base under the influence of the epidemic, accounting for 19% (with an increase of 4pct), and the gross profit margin was 9.41% (with an increase of 4pct); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 222 million yuan (+ 28.67%), accounting for 25.81% (+ 1.52pct). The contribution increment of taoju consolidated on July 1 last year. In 2021, the revenue of other products was 753 million yuan (with an increase of 24%), accounting for 19.6% (with an increase of 1PCT), and the gross profit margin was 26.32% (with an increase of 1PCT); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 169 million yuan (with an increase of 10%), accounting for 19% (with a decrease of 2pct). In terms of sub regions, the revenue of the province in 2021 was 2.913 billion yuan (+ 19.33%), accounting for 75.72% (with an increase of 0.6pct); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 667 million yuan (with an increase of 29%), accounting for 77.6% (with an increase of 5pct). In 2021, the revenue outside the province was 893 million yuan (with an increase of 16%), accounting for 23.23% (with a decrease of 0.5pct); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 189 million yuan (with an increase of 5%), accounting for 22% (with a decrease of 3PCT). In 2021, the foreign revenue was 40 million yuan (with an increase of 1%), accounting for 1% (with a decrease of 0.2pct). In terms of channels, the direct revenue in 2021 was 1.691 billion yuan (with an increase of 27%), accounting for 44% (with an increase of 3PCT); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 351 million yuan (with an increase of 41%), accounting for 41% (with an increase of 6pct). In 2021, the distribution revenue was 2.155 billion yuan (with an increase of 13%), accounting for 56% (with a decrease of 3PCT); Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 508 million yuan (with an increase of 10%), accounting for 59% (with a decrease of 6pct). By the end of 2021, the company had 1011 dealers, including 600 in Guangdong Province, 395 outside Guangdong Province and 16 outside Guangdong Province. In 2021, there was a net increase of 355, 52 more than last year. In terms of catering, by the end of 2021, the company had 32 Direct stores, including 21 " Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) " and 8 "taotaoju"; "Taotaoju" franchise stores 22.
In terms of production capacity, the total production capacity of moon cakes in 2021 will be 15600 tons (with an increase of 4%), and the total production capacity of quick-frozen food will be 37200 tons (with an increase of 14.5%). At present, the company has formed a production capacity pattern with complementary advantageous products in Guangzhou, Xiangtan, Maoming and Meizhou. In 2021, the production capacity of quick-frozen food is mainly provided by Guangzhou and Maoming bases, which is now in full production. The design capacity of Meizhou base quick freezing is 24000 tons / year. At present, the project of Xiangtan base quick freezing workshop is under construction in the climbing period.
Catering + food two wheel drive, catering is expected to recover in the post epidemic Era
From the perspective of brand, catering adheres to the strategy of "strengthening catering brand", newly opened and reopened 7 brand stores, and completed the merger and acquisition of 6 Haiyue taojumen stores; Upgrade the decoration of taotaoju and complete the upgrading of Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) 2 main stores; Launch cultural banquets such as "Cantonese feast of the Republic of China" to consolidate the brand advantage of "the first food in Guangzhou". In terms of food manufacturing, increase investment in Dragon Boat Festival zongzi, take "a generation of zongzi division" as the theme, strengthen IP combination and improve brand image.
The company continues to promote the coordinated development of "catering + food". All production bases continued to tap the potential of technological transformation, improve production capacity, reduce costs and increase efficiency, strictly control costs, deeply cultivate the market, optimize channels, and help maintain the growth of sales performance. With the increasingly scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control, the company's catering business continued to improve, and the company continued to develop new catering stores, and the overall performance of catering business increased year-on-year. At the beginning of March, Shenzhen was seriously affected by the epidemic. Two Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , one taotaoju catering store of the company in Shenzhen basically stopped eating and has resumed eating. Recently, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other surrounding cities have been affected by the epidemic to varying degrees. The flow of people going out for consumption in Guangzhou has also decreased, and dinner activities have also been relatively reduced. We expect that in the post epidemic era, the catering business is expected to accelerate the recovery.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic that the company will continue to promote the coordinated development of food + catering two wheel drive and the layout of prefabricated dishes. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.14/1.37/1.62 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 22 / 18 / 15 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, rising risk of raw materials, further intensification of competition, lower than expected capacity construction, slowdown risk of moon cakes, quick freezing and other foods, etc.
