Today (January 11), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened slightly lower in the morning, and then the Shanghai index showed signs of rebound, but the rebound range was weak, and there was an accelerated downward trend in the afternoon; The gem index and Shenzhen composite index were more vulnerable, showing a pulse downward pattern throughout the day, with a decline of more than 1%, and finally the three major stock indexes closed negative.
In this regard, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) pointed out that the market structure has improved. However, it is still difficult to determine the beginning of the rebound, and the shock may stabilize or remain the main tone. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in operation, control positions, less impulsive trading and wait patiently.
At the same time, Guosheng Securities said that under the background of the current reduction of capital risk preference in the market, it is recommended to allocate defensive varieties with low and undervalued values in the short term, such as infrastructure, real estate industry chain, insurance and other sectors; After the release of market risks, the high growth rate of new energy, photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors are still worthy of attention. However, after the sharp rise of the sector last year, each subject will be extremely differentiated. The strategy of lying down and winning the boom sector is difficult to work, which will further test the stock selection ability of investors.
plate:
I. bank
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that bank stocks rebounded significantly and the market opened in the first quarter. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
In addition, Wanlian Securities said that looking forward to the first quarter, the market pessimistic expectations will be repaired, superimposed with strong performance certainty, and the whole sector is expected to remain strong. We upgraded the sector to be stronger than the general trend. In the medium and long term, the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks with the continuous increase of the proportion of intermediate business income and the banks with the continuous improvement of fundamentals.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the trend of 1q bank sector was better in history, and the relative return of bank stocks in January may be better. From the performance of the banking sector in recent five years, in addition to the abnormal impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the banking sector in 2017-2019 and the first quarter / January of 2021 were 4.0% / 4.5%, – 2.1% / 12.5%, 4.0% / 8.2% and 11.9% / 7.5% respectively. Among them, in January, the banking sector ranked among the top five sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1, 6.4, 1.9 and 2.8pct respectively, with better relative earnings performance.
According to the investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed: ① for the high-quality listed banks that were obviously impacted by the real estate market in the early stage, the bottom shape after stock price adjustment is more obvious and has better flexibility; ② Continue to recommend high-quality listed banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions. These banks benefit from the advantages of regional economic environment and are more certain to continue the “volume increase and price stability” of credit supply.
II. Concept of traditional Chinese medicine
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the state strongly supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine, inherits and innovates the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which is not only a major event for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but also an inevitable requirement for building a health development model with Chinese characteristics in which traditional Chinese medicine and Western Medicine complement and develop in a coordinated manner; High quality and innovative development of drugs are the main theme in the next 5-15 years. In 14th Five-Year, the 12 full text of the plan referred to clinical value and clinical urgent need, 12 references to innovative drugs and 11 references to generic drugs. The SFA will further encourage and support the research and development of innovative drugs and generic drugs with clinical value.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that we continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market of traditional Chinese medicine from three aspects: policy, fundamentals and valuation. From the policy side, the national medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, giving full play to the institutional advantages of medical insurance to support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the immune attribute of medical insurance of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods is prominent.
From a fundamental point of view, there are three opportunities: first, the price of upstream Chinese herbal medicines has increased, and the price of downstream products has increased one after another, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Second, the inventory clearance of downstream channels is coming to an end, and the inventory turnover is accelerated, which is expected to usher in the replenishment cycle; Third, the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises will release dividends, and equity incentives will be implemented one after another, greatly releasing the enthusiasm of employees, which is expected to be realized to the performance end in the future.
From the perspective of valuation, the traditional Chinese medicine sector has experienced many years of correction since 2015, with PE (TTM) of 34.2 times, which is equivalent to the overall valuation of medicine and is in the central position. Combined with the annual strategy, in January, we continued to be optimistic about traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, one of the main lines of “crossing medical insurance”, and suggested paying attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co.Ltd(002287) , Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities also mentioned that national policies continue to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. The traditional Chinese medicine industry is one of the key industries protected by the state. The relevant national policies actively encourage the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the traditional Chinese medicine decoction piece industry. The relevant regulatory departments of various provinces have also formulated relevant policy provisions to increase support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and related enterprises. The continuous improvement of the industry supervision system and the support of industry regulations and policies are conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine with consumption attribute and scarcity attribute, and the transformation of high-quality and low-cost traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers. It is recommended that Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , the in vitro cultivation bezoar business of its affiliated subsidiary continues to rise in both volume and price under the background of shortage of natural bezoar, and the price of its OTC brand Longmu Zhuanggu granules has also been raised. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc.
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(source: China stock market news research center)
