In the context of dual carbon, electric heavy trucks have sprung up in the overall depressed heavy truck market in 2021, and the sales volume continues to rise. Experts predict that the output of electric heavy trucks will triple this year to more than 40000 vehicles, and bring the demand for power batteries of more than 60gwh.
Due to the limitation of mileage and purchase cost, it is a feasible mode to use the power replacement heavy card in the short reverse scenario. On the one hand, it will try to build a closed-loop battery plant and leasing business with the national energy storage Bureau, so as to pave the way for the third-party investors and operators in the future.
However, at present, the penetration rate of electric heavy truck is still less than 1%, and its application is limited to some demonstration areas. The large-scale popularization needs the driving force from the market. With the battery as the core, from initially reducing the production and purchase cost to improve user acceptance, to finally decommissioning the battery, open up the cycle of echelon utilization to improve economic benefits. Cost reduction in the whole life cycle is a necessary answer to run through the business model.
the night before the outbreak of electric heavy truck
"Heavy trucks may be a stock market in the next 2-3 years, and new energy heavy trucks are an incremental market under the large stock market. We think they will usher in rapid growth." Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) relevant people told the reporter of securities times · e company.
Liu Xubao, deputy director of the national power investment green power transportation industry innovation center, predicts that by 2030, China's power exchange heavy truck market penetration is expected to reach 15%, and the market ownership will exceed 1.3 million units. The investment layout of replacement power stations exceeds 26000, and the new market scale in the next decade is estimated to exceed 1.09 trillion yuan.
In 2021, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks increased significantly month after month. Although the base is low, it is difficult to hide the light, which has painted a heavy color on the slightly depressed heavy truck market. According to the observation data of electric trucks, from January to November 2021, the cumulative sales of electric heavy trucks reached 6840, a year-on-year increase of 198.6%; In November, the monthly sales volume reached 1704, with a year-on-year increase of 668%.
At the same time, heavy truck manufacturers have intensively obtained large electric heavy truck orders, which indicates that sales will continue to rise in the future.
In the first half of 2021, SAIC Hongyan signed orders for nearly 6000 new energy heavy trucks with strategic partners in Anhui, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou and other regions; On November 28, Sany Heavy Truck signed a strategic cooperation order for 500 new energy heavy trucks with Hebei dry port bonded logistics company; In the same month, Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) signed an order for 500 pure electric heavy trucks with Ronghui machinery, and delivered 100 of them in the first batch.
From the perspective of participants, some small-scale special vehicle manufacturers mainly produced electric heavy trucks in previous years, but traditional heavy truck manufacturers have stepped in one after another in 2021. Moke, founder of true lithium research, told the reporter of securities times · e company that the entry of traditional heavy truck factories shows that the whole development atmosphere has risen, the basic conditions for the great development of electric heavy trucks have been met, and may attract more new players.
In addition to vehicle manufacturers, energy giants are also important investors to promote the electrification of heavy trucks.
State Power Investment Corporation is the first power giant to officially announce that it will vigorously develop power exchange heavy trucks. It proposes that by 2025, it plans to increase the total investment scale by 115 billion, promote 200000 heavy trucks, 370000 other types of vehicles, increase the investment and hold 4000 power exchange stations and 228000 batteries; Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) the fixed increase plan of 5 billion yuan was launched to invest in the construction of heavy truck and passenger car replacement power station, which has become the largest fixed increase in the field of power replacement so far.
"The sales volume of electric heavy trucks has risen sharply this round. The main driving factor is that under the dual carbon goal, all localities pay more and more attention to environmental protection. In addition, 2021 just caught up with the transfer of heavy truck emission standard from country 5 to country 6, and the price of new National 6 traditional heavy trucks has increased, giving a great opportunity for the development of new energy heavy trucks." Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) relevant people said that the company's sales target of new energy heavy trucks in 2022 is about 5000 or 6000. In terms of gross profit, the gross profit margin of new energy heavy truck will be higher than that of traditional heavy truck.
Heavy truck is a major carbon emitter in the field of transportation, and the task of emission reduction is particularly arduous. According to industry data, the number of heavy trucks in China is about 8 million, accounting for only 2.67% of the total number of vehicles. However, the Ministry of ecological environment disclosed that the nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by heavy trucks account for 85% and 65% of the total vehicle emissions respectively. The exhaust emission of an exceeding standard heavy truck is equivalent to 200 cars.
\u3000\u3000 "As far as I know, many places have introduced incentive measures for new energy muck trucks and new energy urban freight distribution vehicles, and included new energy vehicles in the category of bonus points in project bidding. In the iron and steel industry with high energy consumption, if the environmental protection performance does not meet the standard, it may face production restriction and reduction. In order to achieve the emission reduction target, steel mills prefer to choose electric heavy trucks for shortening Transportation. " Xu TingYang, chief economist of GCL energy, said.
The reporter of securities times · e company has noticed that some cities have begun to implement the detailed rules for the electrification of heavy trucks. In 2021, Zhengzhou City issued the implementation plan of air pollution prevention and control, and proposed that all the new cement tank cars, muck trucks, light logistics vehicles, sanitation vehicles, buses, taxis, urban postal express, garbage transfer vehicles in the city should be new energy vehicles; Subsequently, the implementation plan for promoting the use of pure electric concrete transport vehicles in Zhengzhou (Draft for comments) was released. It is planned that all new concrete transport vehicles in Zhengzhou will be pure electric vehicles from August 1, 2021.
heavy truck power exchange track is hot
Due to the power battery with large capacity, the price of electric heavy truck is usually twice that of traditional heavy truck, which once deterred end users. However, the short reverse transportation scenario of mines, ports and branch lines with high frequency and fixed path gave birth to the power exchange mode of "vehicle power separation". Users only need to buy the whole vehicle without battery and rent the battery. When the power is exhausted, they can go to the replacement power station to replace the new battery. This mode not only improves the operation efficiency, but also reduces the vehicle purchase cost, and has gradually become the mainstream track of heavy truck electrification.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has publicly said that as the energy supply route of new energy vehicles promoted by the state, the best commercialization scenario focuses on the field of electric heavy trucks.
"At present, 70% of the electric heavy trucks sold by the company are replaced by electric models, and this proportion will be further improved in the future." Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) relevant people said.
"Heavy trucks have heavy tonnage, high energy consumption and high transportation frequency. They are naturally suitable for power exchange scenarios." Xu TingYang calculated an account for the reporter. Taking the short inverted scene with a radius of less than 50 kilometers and a daily range of 350 kilometers as an example, according to the calculation of 100000 kilometers per year, the cost of replacing electric heavy truck is 10% to 15% lower than that of fuel vehicle; In addition, many cities now manage the right of way for fuel heavy trucks. In some sections or periods, fuel heavy trucks are not allowed to pass without permission. In contrast, the daily operation efficiency of new energy vehicles can be improved by 20% ~ 25%. According to comprehensive calculation, the annual driver's income can be increased by 25% - 30%.
Under the situation of vehicle electricity separation, the business model of electric heavy truck has also undergone a subversive change. According to Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) relevant people, the sales of traditional energy heavy trucks are generally sold to end consumers through dealers; The cost of a single electric heavy truck is very high. Ordinary consumers rarely buy it out of their own pocket. Generally, operators with strong financial strength hold heavy assets such as batteries. Consumers rent instead of buy, and enjoy the right to use it in the light of assets mode; The electric heavy truck operator shall coordinate the subsequent charging and replacement infrastructure construction and operation services, even including the echelon utilization of batteries, which requires very high resource integration capacity.
Looking at the current mainstream players of electric heavy trucks, they are roughly divided into three categories: first, the main engine factory represented by Sany Heavy Trucks and Geely commercial vehicles takes the power change service as a part of the after vehicle service market; Second, battery factories represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) have great advantages in battery cost; Third, power generation or sales enterprises with power cost advantages, such as Guodian investment, Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , aim to match vehicles with electricity in the way of comprehensive energy services, and focus on the application field of energy storage.
"Only with a large enough landing scene and cheap enough batteries or cheap electricity can the investment and construction of the power station be profitable." An investor in the lithium battery industry in East China told the securities times · e company.
In addition, achieving profitability also tests the operation efficiency of power exchange enterprises. Wang Feng, chief engineer of Hangzhou Botan power exchange enterprise, told the securities times that the battery charging capacity of 500 power exchange heavy trucks (calculated by 282kwh on average) is equivalent to 3000 network cars (calculated by 47kwh on average), which means that the investment in the early stage is huge, and whether the operation can be profitable depends on the turnover rate of battery assets. The heavy truck consumes a lot of power and has complex working conditions. The reasonable battery configuration and scheduling in each scenario is the key to profitability.
According to the calculation of Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) fixed increase project, the construction investment of a single heavy truck replacement power station is about 10.1514 million yuan, the internal rate of return on investment is 12.23%, and the investment payback period is 5.16 years. Xu TingYang told reporters that the current Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) heavy truck replacement power station is in the production capacity climbing period. If it is used in closed short transportation scenarios such as port, power plant, steel plant and urban residue transportation, it has profitability when a single station serves 30 vehicles and the daily mileage of a single vehicle reaches 300 km.
Power replacement heavy truck has been supported by policies in some areas. Last year, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on starting the pilot work of the application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode, and selected 11 cities as the power exchange pilot, including Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou.
turn on power battery increment
It is worth mentioning that the electrification of heavy trucks will bring an incremental power battery market. Merco said that based on 300 kwh of electricity per vehicle, there are a total capacity of more than 1 million vehicles in the short inverted scenario. In five years, there are more than 200000 vehicles per year, corresponding to the battery demand of 60gwh, which is equivalent to the battery loading volume in the first 11 months of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021. In addition, more backup batteries are required for power replacement. Therefore, there is a large market space and it is a battleground for power battery enterprises.
● according to the research data of true lithium, from January to November 2021, the installed capacity of power battery of electric heavy truck in China was close to 3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 305%. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a market share of 90%, and the top three enterprises with installed capacity Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) account for nearly 99%. Xu TingYang said that with the promotion of power battery standardization and technological progress, the operation cost of power station will continue to decline.
According to the relevant personnel, it is a bottleneck for the upstream battery factory to pay in advance, which has become a bottleneck for the management of the whole battery factory.
Recently, power battery manufacturers have shown signs of enclosure in the field of heavy trucks, and the way of jointly building ecology with vehicle manufacturers and energy enterprises is favored. On January 5, Sany Heavy Truck, Yiwei power and special call signed a contract to cooperate in the promotion of new energy commercial vehicles, energy trading, big data management, charging network, etc; At the end of 2021, China Innovation Airlines (formerly known as AVIC lithium battery) announced that it had obtained Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) three heavy truck models in different application fields and completed loading, which will be used as a demonstration to carry out the market and power exchange layout of pure electric heavy truck projects in Chengdu, Sichuan and even southwest China; In addition, vision power, Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) and Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) also said that they would jointly open up the power exchange heavy truck industry chain.
In the field of power replacement heavy truck, single capacity battery is adopted at present, and the mode of combined variable capacity battery is not carried out. The battery with a large amount of single assembly is mainly a 282kwh battery pack supplied by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . Wang Feng said that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) pushed this battery relatively early, and the battery installation method is relatively mature and reliable. Therefore, this set of standards basically continues in the industry. Even if other battery factories produce batteries with different quantities, the pack standard is basically the same. Therefore, compared with passenger cars, the battery model of heavy trucks is relatively more unified, which brings convenience to the popularization of power exchange.
However, the state of only one single capacity battery may not last for a long time. Merco believes that from the perspective of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , when the total amount is still very small, the main promotion of a battery pack can maximize its own interests, but it is lack of Exploratory Significance from the perspective of operation test. Because the scenarios of different heavy truck products such as tractor, semi-trailer tractor and dump truck are different, now all 282kwh battery packs are used. It is not ruled out that some operators think it is difficult to give up after a period of time that replacing power heavy truck has economic benefits, so Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is also difficult to become a beneficiary.
large scale popularization needs to be reduced
It must be admitted that although the electric heavy truck has a rapid momentum and promising prospects, it is still in the primary stage of development, the market scale is small, and the verification of business model will take time.
● according to Merck's prediction, the production of electric heavy trucks will be about 12500-13000 in 2021, with a penetration rate of about 0.9%. It is expected to reach more than 40000 in 2022, but even so, the penetration rate is only 4.5%.
\u3000\u3000 "At present, the electric heavy truck can not completely replace the traditional heavy truck. In the field of heavy engineering machinery and long-distance transportation heavy truck, the requirements for power and endurance mileage are high, and the traditional heavy truck still has incomparable advantages. If the electric heavy truck is required to meet the performance of the traditional heavy truck, it must be equipped with high-capacity battery, which is in contradiction with the current trend of truck lightweight." Hanma Technology Group Co.Ltd(600375) relevant people admitted.
In fact, even in scenarios suitable for electric heavy truck applications, consumers will remain vigilant. The reporter learned from a large port logistics enterprise in East China that the company had tried to purchase a new energy heavy truck, but in the actual operation, the power and economy were not as good as the traditional heavy truck, and then shelved the purchase plan of new energy heavy truck; An environmental sanitation enterprise in South China also said that at present, the electrification rate of the company's vehicles is very low. The electric environmental sanitation vehicles have problems such as high price, insufficient charging and replacement devices, inconvenient maintenance, high vehicle depreciation and unsuitable for long-distance driving. The conversion cost according to the whole life cycle is still too high.
"At this stage, the promotion of new energy heavy trucks mainly depends on policy promotion, and the large-scale popularization has to be driven by the market, so that participants holding or using electric heavy trucks can effectively experience the economy." According to the above-mentioned lithium battery investors, at present, the upstream lithium battery materials are soaring, the voice of battery price rise is rising, the power market reform is launched, the uncertainty of power price is also increasing, and the operation of electric heavy truck is not a small challenge.
In the current mainstream heavy truck power exchange operation mode, in addition to the visible profit channels such as battery leasing and power sales, the combination with energy storage is the vision that operators strive to describe. Specifically, on the one hand, idle standby batteries can participate in power grid peak shaving and frequency modulation; on the other hand, after the power battery assets are retired, they can be used in echelons to realize the construction of low-cost energy storage power stations.
The capital providers of the above-mentioned financial leasing model are often power giants, which focus on the prospect of energy storage business.
"Power giants may not expect to make money from financial leasing itself, but want to have the right to use and dispose of batteries. These giants have huge wind and solar power generation plans. For engineering construction and energy storage needs, they will actively participate in heavy card replacement." Mercer pointed out.
However, the reporter learned in the interview that at present, the actual landing cases of the replacement power station participating in the energy storage network are very few. "It is theoretically feasible for the standby battery to be used for peak shaving and frequency modulation, but it has high requirements for power resource scheduling. It needs to rely on sufficiently accurate big data management and control and artificial intelligence algorithms. Moreover, the number of charge and discharge times of the battery itself is limited. It may not be cost-effective to use it as energy storage in the case of high energy density." The aforementioned lithium battery investor said.
Wang Feng also believes that the direct grid connection for energy storage requires that the storage of the battery stack of the replacement power station is large enough, but now it can not reach this magnitude from the economic model. In addition, in order to meet the investment income, the operator of the power exchange station will also speed up the turnover frequency of the power exchange battery as much as possible, so there is no rich power for energy storage. "We can understand that the energy storage form of the power exchange station is not power storage and Internet access, but self consumption directly on the vehicle."
Another way for the power station to participate in energy storage is to use the retired batteries in echelons. At present, there is a long way to go. According to the above-mentioned lithium battery investors, first of all, retired batteries can not be used immediately after being disassembled, or can only be used as energy storage scenarios after being disassembled by recycling enterprises, pack and battery management system reengineering, which should be taken into account in cost calculation; In addition, the operation cycle of the energy storage power station is generally 10-15 years. From the current construction cost, the echelon utilization of batteries may be more advantageous, but it may be discounted in service life, and the subsequent operation cost is higher, so it may not have an absolute advantage after conversion.
It is worth mentioning that the development of electric heavy truck will also face the competition of hydrogen energy solutions. Compared with the electric scheme, the hydrogen energy heavy truck has the advantages of fast energy replenishment speed, good low-temperature performance and high energy conversion efficiency. Manufacturers such as Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) , Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) , XCMG heavy truck also have two hands in electric and hydrogen energy.
In terms of cost reduction speed, electric heavy trucks will still take the lead in the short term. The report of the International Clean Transport Committee shows that the total cost of ownership parity of electric heavy trucks relative to diesel heavy trucks will mainly be realized in the next decade. Among them, the pure electric dump truck will be more cost-effective than the same diesel truck from 2024 to 2025. It is the most promising heavy truck model to realize electrification at present. The fuel cell heavy truck cannot achieve cost parity for all models before 2030, and the total cost of ownership of this technology is many times higher than that of diesel and pure electric vehicles.
The two technical routes may coexist misplaced in the future. Merco believes that the electrification rate of heavy trucks in short reverse scenario is expected to reach 80% in 2025, while hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks are suitable for long-distance transportation. The two do not conflict on the whole.
(source: Securities Times)
