\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Matters:
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 achieved a revenue of 2.062 billion yuan (+ 165.28%), a net profit of 499 million yuan (+ 223.59%), and a net profit of 486 million yuan (+ 275.76%) after deduction. Better than the forecast in the previous January February business data announcement.
Ping An View:
All kinds of businesses grew, and Q1 performed well
Q1 company achieved a revenue of 2.062 billion yuan (+ 165.28%), with an actual growth of 171.64% if the exchange rate fluctuation factor is excluded. According to the public data, the small molecule chemistry business is about 1.92 billion yuan (+ 165.9%), and the emerging business is slightly more than 140 million yuan (+ 157.4%). Considering the rhythm of the company's capacity landing, it is estimated that the settlement of large orders in Q1 is relatively small (8 billion yuan in hand +), and large orders and other chemical small molecule businesses have achieved year-on-year growth.
The company's gross utilization rate is further increased to 382% with the increase of Q1 + 24%. Subsequently, the delivery of large orders increased, and the gross profit margin is still possible to rise. In terms of cost rate, the cost rate of sales, management and R & D decreased significantly under the scale effect, with a total of 15.25% (-10.64pp).
The number of orders on hand is ideal, and the overall orders continue to accumulate. We are optimistic about the sustainability of the company's growth.
Further implementation of core capacity and rapid development of emerging businesses
In order to meet the demand, the company's production capacity continued to fall. At the end of Q1, the company's fixed assets increased by about 370 million compared with the beginning of the year, mainly due to the landing of multiple workshops in Dunhua 2 and Dunhua 3 plant areas and the continuous transfer of fixed assets in Tianjin 3 plant area. During the year, it is expected that more production capacity will be released, including Dunhua, Western Tianjin and other places. By the end of 22, the number of cubic meters of small molecule reactors of the company is expected to increase by 46% compared with the end of 21.
The company's emerging business is starting rapidly. Q1 chemical macromolecules, biological macromolecules, preparations, clinical cro four emerging business revenue growth of more than 100%. When the large-scale production capacity of chemical macromolecules in Tianjin west district is put into practice in the second half of 22 years, the corresponding business of the company is expected to usher in large-scale expansion. It is expected that the volume of biological macromolecules and other businesses will also increase rapidly after 2023. Emerging businesses will become another important force to support the company's long-term development.
Maintain a "strongly recommended" rating. The core logic of drug innovation driven and outsourcing transfer to China in the global market has not changed. Considering that the epidemic situation in Europe, Oceania and other places continues to be at a high level, it is estimated that the demand for antiviral drugs will last for a long time. We are optimistic about the follow-up development of the industry and the sustainability of the company's growth. Considering the abundant orders on hand and the continuous landing of production capacity, the EPS forecast for 20222024 is adjusted to 9.56, 10.13 and 12.50 yuan (the original forecast for 20222024 is 9.04, 9.71 and 11.96 yuan). At present, the company's share price is in a cost-effective position and maintains the "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) if the proportion of global drug innovation investment and outsourcing is lower than expected, it will affect the development of cdmo industry; 2) The failure of drug research and development will lead to the termination of the project and the loss of corresponding orders by cdmo; If the sales of drugs on the market are less than expected, cdmo orders will not be able to be sold smoothly; 3) In case of production accidents, receiving warning letters from regulatory authorities or other situations that can not meet the needs of customers, the enterprise may lose orders and even customers; 4) The main customers are from Europe and the United States. Orders are denominated in foreign currencies. Exchange rate fluctuations may cause exchange gains and losses.
