\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
All expenses are properly controlled, and the volume and price rise together, driving the performance to a new high. On April 14, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 9.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189.6%; The proportion of three fees decreased by 2.1% to 4.1% at the same time, and the sales expense rate decreased to a very low level of 0.51%. The competitiveness of leading products in the industry is obvious; The gross profit margin of sales was 17.09%, with an increase of 1.55%, and the net profit margin of sales was 8.07%, with an increase of 3.19%. Since 2020, the company has been in a period of rapid growth of production capacity. Under the advantage of scale, the gross profit margin has increased steadily, the cost has been properly controlled, and the net profit level has been further improved.
Product prices rose sharply, and the company’s profitability per ton increased. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, the price of prepared anode increased from 3600 yuan / ton to 5500 yuan / ton in 2021, with an increase of more than 53% during the year. The rising cost of petroleum coke as the main raw material and the high profit of the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry give room for the price increase of prebaked anode. In 2021, the company’s average selling price per ton of prebaked anode was 4011 yuan / ton, and in 2020 it was 2708 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 48%; The gross profit per ton was 729 yuan / ton, up 62% year-on-year; The gross profit margin of the product was 18.2%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year.
The output will increase slightly in 2021 and will meet the small peak of production in the next two years. In 2021, the production capacity of prebaked anode is 2.52 million tons, with an increase of 9.2% to 2.0687 million tons. In 2022, the production capacity of 2.52 million tons will remain unchanged, and the planned output will increase by 25.7% to 2.6 million tons. The annual increment of Tongyun aluminum project is Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in 20212022. For projects under construction, Sichuan sotong Yuheng (350kt / a) and sotong Yunnan Aluminum phase II (300kt / a) will continue to start construction in the second half of 2021. In 2023, the company’s pre baked anode capacity will increase from 2.52 million tons to 3.17 million tons. In the long-term plan, the total capacity of the company will reach 5 million tons after 2025.
Layout the negative carbon materials of lithium batteries, build the development model of “green electricity + new carbon materials” and cultivate the second growth curve. At the beginning of 2022, the company planned for the first time to produce 200000 tons of lithium-ion battery cathode material project, and won the bid for 770mw photovoltaic project at the same time. The largest cost of carbon materials is electricity. Under the background of double carbon, the company will form a green energy supply based on the integration of wind, solar energy and hydrogen storage in the future, focus on carbon material businesses such as “pre baked anode + lithium battery cathode”, build a new carbon material platform represented by lithium battery cathode, special carbon, carbon ceramic and silicon carbide, and cultivate a competitive second growth curve.
Investment suggestion: the intensive production of prebaked anode contributes to stable performance growth, layout the procurement of lithium battery cathode and build the second rapid growth curve. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.440 billion yuan, 18.137 billion yuan and 23.088 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 824 million yuan, 1.087 billion yuan and 1.506 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 179, 2.36 and 3.27 yuan / share, corresponding to the PE level of 11.1, 8.4 and 6.1 times respectively at the current price, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: product price fluctuation risk, overcapacity risk, and risks related to entering new fields.
