Market view: the resurgence of the epidemic, short-term suppression, rapid pricing and agitation can be expected. In the first week of the year, the market continues to adjust rapidly. We believe that this adjustment is mainly due to the disturbance of emotion. Except for the substantial recovery of open market operation and the inhibition of overvalued varieties, there is no change to the margin of difference at the macro level or industry level, On the contrary, the steady growth measures at the macro level are constantly implemented, such as tax reduction and fee reduction, accelerated issuance of special bonds, etc. in addition, we can expect the possible adjustment of MLF interest rate on the 15th and LPR on the 20th to stabilize and raise the market risk appetite. At present, the epidemic situation is spreading, which will inhibit the market in the short term. However, according to past experience, the market adjustment caused by the epidemic is expected to be priced quickly and will not have a sustained impact, so there is no need to worry too much. In the face of strong measures to stabilize growth, the restless market can still be expected. In terms of configuration, first of all, the growth style can be adhered to. The resumption shows that it is going through the transition stage from performance support to valuation support. After adjustment, the probability of the main track in the early stage will become the main variety of valuation rise; Secondly, the undervalued varieties with steady growth, such as building materials and real estate industry chain, have short-term allocation value; Third, the price rise of consumption can be used as the main line of the whole year.
Short term emotional disturbance does not change the rising trend of risk preference, and the agitation in spring is still expected. Policies continue to introduce measures around steady growth, such as greater combined tax cuts and fee reductions, and accelerated issuance and use of special bonds, which are expected to further boost risk appetite. Omicron's influence is expected to be priced quickly.
Interest rate cut is expected to rise, and liquidity support is still "downwind". The probability of interest rate reduction increases. In January, the MLF interest rate was reduced, which increases the possibility of driving the decline of LPR interest rate, and the expectation of total market easing is rising. If the interest rate cut is expected to fall, there is a possibility of further decline in the long-term interest rate. At the micro liquidity level, the weekly net inflow continued northward, and the allocation enthusiasm increased. Follow up attention will be paid to the central bank's operation when the MLF expires on January 15. There is no worry about growth under the tone of steady growth. Under the keynote of steady growth of the central economic work conference, the opening policy of 2022 will continue to work, and the growth is basically worry free. The power and production restriction measures are gradually lifted, and the production end is expected to continue to recover. The continuation of preferential individual income tax policies and the improvement of employment situation are expected to further release the consumption potential. The capital construction has been strengthened, the supervision has recently encouraged the project reorganization of real estate enterprises in danger, and the investment side has been more active. At the same time, the recent epidemic situation in Shanxi and Henan has been repeated, which still needs close follow-up and attention.
Industry configuration: the growth configuration is still positive
Benign adjustment at the beginning of the year, the restless market in spring is in the process, and the growth allocation is still positive. ① Under the tone of cross cycle adjustment in the first quarter, monetary policy will still release positive signals, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is still expected, and the marginal easing of liquidity will support the growth valuation. ② According to the three-stage deduction of "valuation → performance → valuation" of the growth market, it is currently experiencing a transition period from performance to valuation driven. The adjustment of the growth sector is more benign, and the adjustment time is expected to be between 1-1.5 months. Therefore, spring agitation continues to follow four main lines and is configured around the growth main line. Main line 1: continue to be optimistic about the growth direction, including the upstream of "double carbon" green power, scenery hydrogen storage and new energy, the middle and upper reaches of semiconductors with improved prosperity, military industry, and the computer sector with style diffusion and easily driven by emotion. Main line 2: building materials, real estate and its upstream and downstream under steady growth. The main force of short-term steady growth is still infrastructure and real estate. The real estate regulation policy has been marginal relaxed, and the better repair of investment and sales than pessimistic expectations is worthy of attention. Main line 3: brokerage plate of restless wind vane in spring. Main line 4: follow the rising consumer sector and look for opportunities along the main line of price rise. In terms of theme, digital currency and artificial intelligence are the theme investment opportunities. Continue to focus on the accelerated landing of technology and the digital currency catalyzed by the Winter Olympic Games; And artificial intelligence theme investment opportunities that bring upstream and downstream linkage opportunities such as chips, computers and cloud computing.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated more than expected.
