\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Core conclusion
Event: in 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 3.171 billion yuan (+ 284.85%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.331 billion yuan (+ 360.18%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.315 billion yuan (+ 367.75%). 2022q1 achieved rapid growth in both revenue and profit, mainly due to the contribution of bivalent HPV vaccine, reagent and active raw materials.
Xinkening maintains high speed and large volume, and its penetration rate is expected to continue to improve. So far, only five HPV vaccines have been approved for listing in the world, and the domestic products are wantaixinkening and Watson wozehui respectively. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the cumulative number of HPV vaccination in China was about 23 million (calculated by three doses), accounting for about 6.7% of school-age women, far lower than the 40% vaccination rate in European and American developed countries. In the short term, the supply of HPV vaccine still exceeds the demand. In 2021, the company increased the promotion layout of Xinkening, and the annual sales volume was 10.23 million, a year-on-year increase of 289%; In 2022q1, Xinkening was approved to issue 67 batches, with a year-on-year growth rate of 253%, maintaining high-speed and large-scale volume; In the medium and long term, there is much room to improve the penetration rate of HPV vaccine. It is estimated that the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China will reach about 30% in 2025. As the first HPV vaccine supplier in China, Xinkening, a heavy variety, has the first mover advantage and is expected to continue to produce large quantities rapidly.
HPV immunization procedures in China remain unchanged, and the possibility of single needle vaccination is low. Recently, the WHO immunization strategy advisory expert group (SAGE) held a meeting to recommend HPV single dose vaccination. This WHO recommendation mainly affects low-income and middle-income countries that rely on international procurement, and the possibility of single dose vaccination in China is low. On the one hand, from the perspective of regulation, China has an independent voice in the field of vaccines. For more cautious consideration of vaccination effectiveness, it is more appropriate for China to adhere to the three dose vaccination procedure; On the other hand, from the perspective of enterprises, more variable dose needs strict clinical data support, large R & D investment and insufficient power at the enterprise end. Overall, the who review has a low impact on the Chinese market.
Profit forecast and rating: considering the rapid volume of vaccine and the strength of IVD business, the company’s revenue is expected to increase by 87% / 23% / 19% year-on-year from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: sales are less than expected, R & D progress is less than expected, and policy changes
