Key investment points:
US employment data for December were mixed
According to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor on January 7, the non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 199000 in December 2021, with an expected increase of 400000 and a previous value increase of 210000. The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector was less than half of the expected and lower than the previous value, but the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% month on month, 0.4 percentage points away from the level of 3.5% before the epidemic. The average hourly salary in December increased by 4.7% year-on-year and is expected to increase by 4.2%; The labor participation rate in December was 61.9%, unchanged from the previous value.
Overall, 1) the growth of non farm employment in the United States is lower than expected, recording the lowest value since January 2021, but there are more new people in the hotel industry and commercial service industry. 2) The unemployment rate fell below 4% better than expected, further approaching the level of full employment. 3) Salary growth is also higher than market expectations, among which the salary of leisure hotel industry has increased significantly, pointing to inflationary pressure or still large. 4) Under the background of the continuous deterioration of the epidemic, the residents’ willingness to obtain employment is still weak, and the labor participation rate has increased slowly.
After the data release, the yield of US bonds rose significantly, and the probability of CME futures raising interest rates in March 2022 increased from less than 80% to 90%. The imbalance of short-term repair of labor force may not be the main factor for raising interest rates, and inflation and economic growth may be the key points. Superimposed on the statement of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December, it shows that there is a great possibility of raising interest rates in the first half of 2022. Throughout the year, we still prefer the judgment that the Fed’s position is more hawkish in the first half of the year and slightly pigeon in the second half of the year.
Covid-19 epidemic. Globally, the covid-19 epidemic continues to accelerate and worsen. As of January 8, 305 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia had been confirmed worldwide. The cumulative number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States, France and the United Kingdom ranked first, with 4.67 million cases, 1.62 million cases and 1.24 million cases respectively. In China, the covid-19 epidemic continued to spread in winter. As of January 8, there were 92 new local cases in China (56 in Henan, 30 in Shaanxi, 3 in Tianjin, 2 in Zhejiang and 1 in Guangdong).
Increase in financing balance. On January 6, the balance of A-share financing was 1717.905 billion yuan, an increase of 1.594 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1831.009 billion yuan, an increase of 1.477 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1604.801 billion yuan, an increase of 1.71 billion yuan month on month.
Net purchase of northbound funds. On January 7, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 9.335 billion yuan, including 65.205 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 55.870 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 164.0781 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $2.868 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $17.144 billion and a sale transaction of HK $14.277 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2190.797 billion.
Money market interest rates rose. On January 7, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.8390%, up 12.50bp, Shibor one week was 2.1030%, up 6.10bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.8261% overnight, up 12.47bp and 2.0483% a week, up 11.73bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.8205%, up 1.60bp.
Three major U.S. stocks fell, while European stock markets fluctuated. On January 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 36231.66 points, down 0.01%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4677.03 points, down 0.41%; The NASDAQ index closed at 14935.90, down 0.96%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7219.48 points, down 0.42%; Germany DAX index closed at 15947.74 points, down 0.65%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7485.28, up 0.47%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 28478.56 points, down 0.03%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 23493.38, up 1.82%. The dollar index fell. On January 7, the dollar index fell 0.51% to 96.2316. The euro rose 0.56% against the dollar to 1.1298. The dollar fell 0.28% against the yen to 115.8500. The pound rose 0.41% against the dollar to 1.3534. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3739, up 0.03%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3944, up 0.18%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3742, depreciating by 0.02%.
Gold rose and crude oil fell. On January 7, Comex gold futures rose 0.31% to close at US $1796.50/oz. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.89% to close at US $78.94/barrel. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.06% to US $81.93/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 1.07% to close at US $4.4010/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 1.17% to close at US $9674 / ton.
