\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
As the beer leader in Southwest China, Carlsberg’s high-quality assets are injected, and the new heavy beer will set sail again. Founded in 1958, the company has deeply cultivated the southwest market and the base market is stable. After Carlsberg China’s high-quality beer assets were injected into the company in 2020, the company’s sales scale and profitability were rapidly improved. On the one hand, under the background of weak growth in the overall volume of the industry, Wusu, 1664 and other products have led the growth of heavy beer against the trend; On the other hand, the company has rich high-end product matrix and strong brand power. The ton price belongs to the first echelon of the industry with Budweiser Asia Pacific. With high-quality profitability brought about by structural upgrading and efficiency improvement, high turnover operation capacity and high asset liability ratio, the company led the beer industry with a high roe level of 99.69% in 2021, with outstanding performance.
Accurate positioning of the scene + Wusu volume + product matrix extension, and the company’s high-end process continues to accelerate. We believe that the upgrading of the beer industry structure is the only way. At present, the high-end construction of foreign brands is dominant, and the upgrading of domestic capital localization is also accelerating. After Carlsberg’s asset injection, it has built a “International + local” brand matrix from a comprehensive range of enabling companies such as products, production capacity and management, and continued to cultivate differentiated products. On the one hand, Wusu, a local strong brand, is likely to become popular rapidly with its unique taste, hard core tone and social marketing. In the future, it will continue to maintain a high growth momentum through differentiated marketing, diversified channel expansion and nationwide volume. On the other hand, other brands of the company continue to cultivate, 1664 focuses on French romance and focuses on entertainment channels; In summer, fresh fruit wine is positioned to enter the low alcohol consumption market; Lebao focuses on fun marketing for young groups. A hundred flowers bloom and is expected to relay the high growth of Wusu.
Wusu brand has strong potential, and bu reform has consolidated its channel ability. It is of great significance to realize the national single beer drainage as a national single beer. We believe that with the help of Wusu, the channel reform is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, and the competitiveness of the company will be strengthened in the construction of distribution channel network and regional expansion, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: 1) quickly expand new regions with the help of Wusu brand potential energy. On the one hand, Wusu broke the channel monopoly through strong brand awareness, on the other hand, the high unit price and high profit space enhanced the channel stickiness. Big city strategy Wusu added 20 big cities, accelerated penetration into the blank market, and accelerated the release of brand potential. 2) Wusu deeply cultivates the barbecue scene, builds brand mind, takes catering as the core, and infiltrates multiple channel types. Wusu relies on the barbecue scene to do deep and thorough work, cultivates brand awareness through the extreme cultivation of a single scene, and gradually forms an spillover effect to multiple channels such as catering and circulation. As an important scene of high-end beer, Wusu is expected to further continue its consumption cognition and advantages in catering channels and promote structural upgrading. 3) Channel reform endows BU with all brand and all channel operation ability, better undertake Wusu brand potential energy and build channel network. After the reform, each provincial region will be operated by a single team with all channels and brands. Each Bu can break the channel barriers, cultivate the consumption atmosphere, further introduce the company’s “6 + 6” product matrix, enhance the channel viscosity and improve the market competitiveness through Wusu’s strong brand awareness and taking Wusu as the fulcrum.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 15.5/17.6/19.9 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of + 18% / 14% / 13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.5/18/2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25% / 23% / 19%; EPS is 3.0 / 3.7 / 4.4 yuan. According to the valuation level of comparable companies, the company will be given the level of 41xpe in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 151 yuan. It will be covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, intensified high-end competition, rising raw material costs, cross market selection of comparable companies, etc.
