\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 117 Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) )
Net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was + 51.28% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to parent company in Q4 was + 71.68% year-on-year
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.85%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 579 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.28%; 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.88%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 177 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71.68%. The overall performance is in line with our expectations.
Traditional household appliance business: the profit of heat exchanger is under pressure in the short term, and the income of dehumidifier increases steadily
1) heat exchanger business: in 2021, the revenue was 2.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.42%. However, the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as copper pipe and aluminum foil has an impact on the company's heat exchanger business, resulting in a decline in profitability and short-term pressure on performance. 2) Dehumidifier business: in 2021, the dehumidifier business achieved a revenue of 562 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.75%. The company ranked first in the sales revenue of dehumidifier products on jd.com and tmall platforms for five consecutive years. At the same time, it also actively laid offline channels. In addition, the rising demand in the European market also led to the expansion of the company's overseas business, with overseas sales of + 33.2% year-on-year.
Inverter business: maintain high growth and be optimistic about the follow-up micro reverse development
In 2021, the inverter business realized a revenue of 1.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 262.34%. Among them, the revenue of energy storage inverter was 532 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 265.27%; The revenue of series inverter was 539 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 265.53%; The revenue of micro inverter was 107 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 257.94%. At present, the global photovoltaic industry is booming, and the installed capacity continues to grow, driving the growth rate of the inverter industry upward. Under the background that the photovoltaic inverter market at home and abroad is dominated by industrial and commercial products and the supply of household market is less than demand, the company first developed and switched into household energy storage inverter to realize curve overtaking. In the future, we are optimistic about the development of the company's Micro inverter products, which is expected to further drive the rapid growth of the company's inverter business and overall performance.
Performance comments: the supply and demand side of household appliances is expected to improve, and the inverter business is expected to maintain high growth
Although the company's traditional home appliance business is under pressure in the short term due to the slowdown in demand in the air conditioning industry and the rise in raw material prices, the high outlook of the inverter business continues to meet expectations. We believe that in the second half of the year, the household appliance business is expected to usher in demand release and supply side improvement, and continue to be optimistic about the development of the company's Micro inverter products, which is expected to further drive the rapid growth of the company's inverter business and overall business.
Profit forecast and valuation
We are still optimistic about the steady growth of the company's home appliance business and the high growth of inverter business. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue in 22-24 years will be 5.838 billion yuan / 8.696 billion yuan / 10.989 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rate of 40.07% / 48.96% / 26.37% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 931 million yuan / 1.621 billion yuan / 2.141 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding growth rate was 60.85% / 74.18% / 32.07% respectively. The current market value is 33.7 billion, corresponding to 36x / 21x / 16x PE in 22-24 years.
Risk tips
The demand of traditional business is less than expected, the price fluctuation risk of main raw materials and the policy fluctuation risk of inverter industry.
