\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Core view
The annual revenue growth was strong, the profit was affected by bad debt provision, and the operation in the first quarter was disturbed by the epidemic. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 10.148 billion / + 24.84%, net profit attributable to parent company of 1.332 billion / - 19.81%, net profit not attributable to parent company of 1.277 billion / - 19.42%. Q4's revenue is 3.077 billion / + 22.96%, the net profit attributable to the parent is -11 million, and the net profit not attributable to the parent is -14 million. Q1 revenue is 2.086 billion / + 9.32%, net profit attributable to parent company is 368 million / + 2.47%, net profit not attributable to parent company is 336 million / + 4.27%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. The company's annual revenue grew beautifully, breaking 10 billion for the first time; The profit is mainly affected by the credit impairment of about 770 million yuan caused by the provision for bad debts of real estate and other customers, including 660 million yuan for Evergrande. If the impact of Evergrande's bad debts is excluded, the annual profit will increase by 19.9% to 1.99 billion and Q4 profit will increase by 20.7% to 650 million. The slowdown of Q1 company's revenue and profit growth was affected by the high base in the same period and the repeated epidemic in March.
The second and third categories expanded rapidly, and the market share of traditional categories increased steadily. Under the pressure of the industry, the company positioned high-end Chinese cooking brands through active adjustment, made joint efforts through new and old categories and coordinated development through multiple channels, and achieved good development in main categories and channels. In 2021, the revenue of range hood of the company increased by 18.7% to 4.88 billion, and the share of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) city increased by 0.9/2.2pct to 16.9% / 30.5% respectively; The income of gas stoves increased by 27.3% to 2.44 billion, and the share of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) city increased by 1.4/3.5pct to 9.9% / 29.3%; In the second and third categories, the revenue of all-in-one steaming and baking machines increased by 71% to 650 million, that of dishwashers increased by 101% to 450 million, that of water heaters increased by 173% to 160 million, and that of the second and third categories increased by 48%, accounting for 20% / + 3PCT. In terms of sub channels, in 2021, the company's retail channel revenue increased by 18% to 3.45 billion, the direct channel (e-commerce + offline direct) increased by 39% to 4.65 billion, the engineering channel increased by 7% to 1.98 billion, and the overseas region increased by 72%. It is expected that the retail channel of Q1 company will still have a steady growth in the middle single digit, the e-commerce revenue will increase by more than 20%, and the engineering channel will decline to a certain extent due to the impact of the real estate boom.
The pressure of raw materials gradually appears, waiting for short-term disturbance repair. Affected by the adjustment of accounting standards for the adjustment of transportation costs into costs, the apparent gross profit margin of Q4 has declined to a certain extent. From the perspective of "gross profit margin - sales expense rate", the gross sales difference of the whole year / Q4 / Q1 has decreased by 1.6/3.3/1.6pct respectively, which is expected to be mainly affected by the rise of raw material prices. In terms of expense rate, the company has basically remained stable. In 2021, the management / R & D / financial expense rate was - 0.1 / - 0.1 / + 0.5pct to 4.0% / 3.2% / - 1.5% respectively. Affected by the provision for bad debts, the company's annual net interest rate decreased by 7.5pct to 17.5%. After adding back the bad debts withdrawn due to Evergrande, the net interest rate decreased by 1PCT to 19.8%, maintaining stability. In 2022q1, the net profit margin of the company decreased by 1.5pct to 17.5%.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Category expansion was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. Considering the recent high volatility of raw material prices, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.17/25.8/2.95 billion (the previous value was 2.36/26.8/3.05 billion), with a growth rate of 63.3% / 18.8% / 14.1%; Diluted EPS = 2.29/2.72/3.11 yuan, corresponding PE = 13 / 11 / 10x. As the leader of kitchen appliances in China, the company has successfully expanded its new categories, and the secondary growth is expected to continue, maintaining the "buy" rating
