\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Event summary
The company released the first quarter report of 2022 on April 20: the operating revenue was 2.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 499 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 223.59%; Deduct 486 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, with a year-on-year increase of 275.76%; The gross profit margin was 45.24%, an increase of 2.37pp over the same period last year; The net interest rate was 24.22%, an increase of 4.36pp over the same period last year.
Key investment points
Projects + customers + production capacity jointly drive the high performance growth of small molecule cdmo sector. Through the accumulation of outsourcing service projects and advanced technology R & D for more than 20 years, the global competitiveness of the company's small molecule cdmo sector continues to improve, and the operating revenue in 2022q1 increased by 165.9% year-on-year. From the project side, in 2021, there will be 328 service projects (+107), 235 pre clinical and early clinical projects (+88), 55 clinical phase III projects (+13) and 38 Commercial phase projects (+6). The project structure will be further optimized. From the perspective of clients, the company has served with 8 of the world's top 20 pharmaceutical companies for more than 10 years and actively explored small and medium-sized customers at home and abroad. In 2021, the business revenue of China increased by 64% year-on-year and that of overseas small and medium-sized companies increased by 51% year-on-year. From the perspective of production capacity, the traditional reactor is nearly 4700m3 by the end of 2021, and it is expected to increase by 46% (6862m3) by the end of 2022. In February 2022, the company passed the proposal of wholly controlling the equity of snapdragon. In the future, snapdragon will form synergy with the company's continuous technology platform, and the application of continuous technology will continue to increase.
With the introduction of war investment and capital increase, the diversified layout of new businesses has gradually entered the harvest period
The company adheres to taking technological innovation as the driving force, relying on the brand awareness and operation management system accumulated in the field of small molecules, and quickly promotes the development of new business segments. In 2022q1, the operating revenue increased by 157.4% year-on-year, including the revenue growth of chemical macromolecules, biological macromolecules, preparations and clinical cro. The biological macromolecule cdmo sector achieved a revenue of 4.4186 million yuan from January to February 2022, with more than 200 personnel. After the capital increase and the introduction of external investors such as Hillhouse venture capital, it will enhance the overall competitiveness and promote the accelerated development of the sector's business. In the chemical macromolecule sector, 14 new customers were developed in 2021, 23 new projects were undertaken, and more than 20 projects after phase II. We have actively developed excipients in the field of mRNA vaccine, including lipids, and have been involved in many lipid projects entering the later stage of clinical practice. In the preparation business sector, 40 API + Preparation orders were undertaken in 2021, with orders from overseas customers such as the United States and South Korea accounting for more than 40%. The production of NDA registration batches and process validation batches of two projects was completed, which is expected to trigger China's official NDA audit in early 2022. In terms of biosynthesis technology, the enzyme technology platform has been relatively mature. At the same time, it undertakes the construction of core technical capabilities in the field of drugs such as protein, polypeptide and nucleic acid, and undertakes the process characterization project of biological new drug market application (BLA) and the R & D and production project in the later stage of clinic for the first time.
Profit forecast
According to the company's business in the first quarter, we expect the company's operating revenue to be RMB 109.76/126.36/14.537 billion from 2022 to 2024 (compared with RMB 124.56/142.83/17.608 billion from 2022 to 2024); The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.536/29.47/3.429 billion (originally RMB 2.878/33.08/4.085 billion in 20212023); the corresponding EPS was RMB 9.60/11.15/12.97/share (originally RMB 10.89/12.52/15.45/share in 20212023), maintaining the buy rating.
Risk warning: order volatility risk; Risk of fluctuations in the market demand of innovative drugs served; Risk that the progress of new business is less than expected; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
