\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Event: on April 19, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 285.02 billion yuan + 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan – 5.4%.
Comments: the leading position of the industry is stable, and the core urban agglomeration is deeply cultivated; The decline in the gross profit margin of carry over projects has put pressure on the performance, but the profitability is still in the forefront of the industry; Stable financial indicators and smooth financing channels
1) in the past 21 years, the company has achieved a total contracted amount of 534.93 billion yuan and a contracted area of 33.33 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a decrease of 2.2% respectively, ranking No. 4 in the 21 year Kerui full caliber sales list, one place ahead of 20 years; The corresponding average sales price was 160494 yuan / flat, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Good reputation of central enterprises and rich residential product series provided a certain guarantee for the company’s sales performance and market premium. During the period, the total contracted sales of the company in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta exceeded 280 billion yuan; A single city has signed contracts with 17 cities of 10 billion yuan, of which Guangzhou and Foshan have achieved a total sales scale of more than 92 billion yuan, and the effect of urban deep cultivation is remarkable. In the same period, the company realized a return amount of 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of about 93.8%. With relatively sufficient liquidity, it is conducive to subsequent replenishment.
2) in the past 21 years, the company avoided the high point of the land market and took land cautiously. In the whole year, it relaxed before investment and tightened after investment, with a total of 145 new expansion projects, and the area of new soil storage volume ratio was 27.223 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%; The corresponding investment was 185.68 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year; While the unit price of land acquisition (6820.7 yuan / square meter) decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, the proportion of expansion amount in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta increased 7pct to 54% year-on-year.
3) in 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 285.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The company’s revenue increased to a certain extent in the current period, mainly due to the accelerated delivery of the company’s sold real estate projects. However, as the high land price projects entered the settlement period, the company’s profit space also continued to decline with the industry trend. During the period, the company recorded a gross profit margin of 26.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8pct; The net interest rate was 13.1%, down 3.4pct year-on-year. It is expected that with the continuous embodiment of high land price projects, the company’s profit will still be under pressure in the short term, but it may benefit from cost optimization and abundant high-quality soil storage, or alleviate the downward trend to a certain extent.
4) by the end of the 21st century, the company’s asset liability ratio was about 69.2%, the net debt ratio was about 55.1%, the cash short debt ratio was about 2.63x, and the financial indicators remained stable. During the period, the company issued corporate bonds of 8.69 billion yuan and medium-term notes of 10 billion yuan, with smooth financing channels; The total scale of interest bearing liabilities was 338.2 billion yuan, and the comprehensive financing cost was about 4.46%, down 31bp year-on-year, maintaining the leading edge in the industry.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s predicted net profit attributable to the parent company for 22-23 years is 28.86 billion yuan and 30.51 billion yuan respectively, and the predicted net profit attributable to the parent company for 24 years is 32.74 billion yuan; The current share price corresponds to the PE valuation of 22-24 years, which is 7.6, 7.2 and 6.7 times. The company’s sales performance is good, the land investment is cautious and moderate, the performance is growing steadily, the profitability is expected to be repaired under the accelerated liquidation of the industry, the business scale of the two wings continues to expand, the finance remains stable and the credit advantage is obvious. It is optimistic about the future development space of the company as the industry leader and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the severity and duration of regulation policies in the real estate industry may exceed expectations; Sales progress is limited by bank loan concentration management or less than expected; The project construction and settlement progress may be less than expected.
