\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event overview
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.3%, exceeding the performance forecast range (3.63-3.73 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, reaching the upper limit of performance forecast (346386 million yuan), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%, which was at the upper limit of performance forecast (340380 million yuan).
Analysis and judgment:
Performance bucked the trend and increased tier0.5% 5. The quantity and price of supporting equipment rise together
The company achieved a revenue of 3.75 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of +54.3% and a month on month increase of +2.9%. We judge that the revenue growth on a month on month basis is mainly due to the significant increase of new energy customers such as Tesla, of which the global output of Tesla in 2021q1 reached 305000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of +69%. We expect that Tesla’s revenue is expected to account for more than 45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 56.8% and a month on month increase of + 46.2%. We judged that the year-on-year growth rate of profit was slightly higher than that of income, mainly benefiting from the scale effect. The company actively embraces new energy, continuously expands the product line related to electric intelligence, actively expands the global intelligent electric customer base, and explores tier0 Level 5 supporting mode, showing a trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price, and the performance is expected to continue to grow at a high level.
The profit margin rebounded significantly, and the scale effect appeared
The gross profit margin of the company in 2022q1 was 20.8%, with a year-on-year ratio of – 1.2pct and a month on month ratio of + 3.2pct. We judged that the year-on-year decrease was mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, but the significant improvement in the month on month ratio benefited from the appearance of scale effect, the improvement of internal management and the landing of price adjustment compensation with customers. In terms of expenses, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate in 2022q1 were 1.4%, 2.5%, 4.1% and 0.1% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.2pct, -0.5pct, -0.5pct and 0.0pct, and a month-on-month ratio of -0.2pct, + 0.3pct, 0.0pct and -0.7pct, highlighting the scale effect. The net interest rate in 2022q1 reached 10.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.4pct and a month on month increase of + 3.6pct, outperforming expectations.
Shuangwei Qiqu Jianzhi global auto parts top
Customer +: strategically bind Tesla and the new forces of car manufacturing to enter the global supply system. The company has followed the growth of GM and Geely. At present, Tesla is strategically bound to start a new round of growth. At the same time, it has entered the global supply systems such as Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota. In line with the change of Electric Intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car manufacturing to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode to provide customers with synchronous R & D and supply services of the whole product line.
Product +: eight product lines to build a platform enterprise. While maintaining China’s leading position in the two traditional businesses of vehicle NVH damping system and vehicle acoustic package, we have prospectively arranged the three core businesses of intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system, and added air suspension system, integrated body lightweight and intelligent cabin components. We expect that the total supporting value of single vehicle of the whole product line is expected to reach more than 30000 yuan. We will comprehensively arrange Electric Intelligence and become a platform company.
Investment advice
The company is the target of high performance elasticity of Tesla industrial chain and the most beneficial target of Geely industrial chain. With the industry-leading ability of customer expansion and product expansion, the company is expected to rise and become the leader of independent parts under the reform of electric intelligence. In view of the growth of the company’s performance repair and lightweight, intelligent driving system and thermal management system with key customers such as Tesla and Geely, and in combination with the impact of the epidemic and lack of core, the company maintains the profit forecast: it is expected that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 17.12/226.6/30.59 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 17.3/24.0/3.36 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 1.57/2.17/3.05 yuan, corresponding to pe31 / 22 / 16 times of the closing price of 48.60 yuan on April 21, 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Tesla’s sales volume is lower than expected; Geely’s sales volume recovered less than expected; Increased competition; Rising raw material costs, etc.
