The core industry views are as follows
In November, the industrial added value of middle and downstream industries such as medicine, biology, electronics, mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, food and beverage increased year-on-year, and the prosperity margin of most upstream raw materials and some downstream industries fell, such as mining, steel and automobile.
1. The semiconductor boom continued: affected by the tight delivery of large suppliers, the chip delivery time reached a new high, and the superimposed epidemic repeatedly brought the pressure of supply tightening. The overall production capacity was still tight, and the chip price rose again. Under the tightening of the supply side, the acceleration of domestic substitution superimposes the strong demand in the downstream, and the high prosperity of the plate is expected to continue. In November, the shipment volume of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers was + 50.6% year-on-year. As of January 10, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell to 3805.39, still at a high level, and the prices of nandflash and DRAM rose.
2. Panel prices continued to fall: as of December 23, the price of LCD panel decreased by 4.21% year-on-year compared with last week. Among them, the price of LCD TV panel decreased by 4.89% year-on-year compared with last week and 40% compared with the same period last year. As the demand for black electricity decreased after the normalization of the downstream epidemic, the panel price is still in the downward channel, but the decline has narrowed.
3. Photovoltaic industry: the price index is basically flat. As of January 10, the comprehensive price index of photovoltaic industry was basically flat compared with the previous week, and the component price index fell by 0.51%; Battery price index and polysilicon price index were flat compared with the previous week; The silicon wafer price index continued to rise by 0.57% over the previous week. The industrial chain is still in a downward channel due to the decline in the price of upstream silicon materials. The continuous high growth at the demand end and the large amount of overseas demand support the development of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.
4, food and beverage: Baijiu price stable, high-end liquor prices slightly callback, superimposed sales season peak price expectations. The price of fresh milk in the main producing areas increased. The price of fresh milk in the main producing areas was reported as 4.28 yuan / kg. In the short term, it benefits from the upcoming peak consumption season. In the medium and long term, after the cost side pressure is gradually relieved, it is expected to enjoy the double dividend of raw material price decline + profit elasticity repair.
5. Real estate: as of January 9, the land transaction premium rate in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 0%, down 100% from last week; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2558400 square meters, a decrease of 36.00% compared with last week. Under the policy correction, the capital level of some real estate enterprises has gradually improved, but the recovery of fundamentals still needs to wait (the transaction is cold, and the transaction land premium rate and the transaction area of commercial housing begin to fluctuate at the bottom). The upward space of the plate still needs to be further observed after the valuation repair.
6. Transportation: in terms of China's shipping, China's export container freight rate composite index CCFI increased by 2.65% over last week; China's coastal bulk cargo freight rate composite index ccbfi increased by 0.43%. This week, Borneo's sea dry bulk index bdi and crude oil transportation index BDTI fell. Affected by the seasonal increase of consumer demand and the fact that the gap between supply and demand has not been filled, the shortage of seafarers caused by the epidemic has been superimposed. Although the shipping price has dropped, it will still "remain high" in the long run, which still puts great pressure on import and export trade.
7. Petrochemical industry: in terms of petroleum, the international oil price rose last week. As of January 10, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $80.87/barrel, up $3.09/barrel this week; WTI crude oil futures settled at US $78.23/barrel, up US $3.02/barrel this week. Last week, the oil market continued the trend of inventory reduction and new supply less than demand growth. It is expected that the overall crude oil demand will continue to maintain a strong momentum and the price will rise further.
8. In terms of coal, Indonesia's short-term restrictions on coal exports have boosted market sentiment. The price of power coal has stopped falling and rebounded, but the inventory is still high. After new year's day, the operating rate of blast furnace has increased significantly, driving the demand for double coke. It is expected that there will be some support for the short-term coal price. Thermal coal: on January 10, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 841 yuan / ton, an increase of 53 yuan / ton in the week.
Risk tip: data lag, limited data representativeness, macroeconomic downturn exceeding expectations
