Core view
Two week performance of the sector: in the past two weeks (2021.12.27-2022.01.07), CSI 300 fell by 2.01%, gem index fell by 6.07%, and consumer service (CITIC) index fell by 0.36%. Compared with CSI 300, the relative income was 1.65%, ranking 18th among CITIC's 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the tourism and leisure sector has decreased by 2.01% in the past two weeks, the hotel and catering sector has increased by 2.45%, the education sector has increased by 3.54% in the past two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector has increased by 3.09% in the past two weeks.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in the past two weeks are Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) / China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) / Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) / Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ; 2) In terms of capital flow, in the past two weeks, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) / Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) / Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) shows capital inflow to the north, and China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) / China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) / Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) shows capital outflow to the north. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, in the past two weeks, jiumaojiu / Naixue's tea / sipping sipping / Haidilao showed capital inflows to the south.
Industry highlights: 1) the annual investment of key projects in Hainan is 80.1 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 103% (2) the first tax-free complex in Dawan district is located in Guangzhou. (3) The cancellation of fuel surcharge will not have a great impact on airlines and Spring Festival transportation.
Important announcement of A-share social service listed companies: 1) Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) : jointly invest with Lingang group to establish Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) hydrogen energy industry development Co., Ltd. the company plans to invest 500 million yuan, accounting for 50% of the shareholding. 2) Hainan Strait Shipping Co.Ltd(002320) : the joint venture established a wholly-owned subsidiary of the north bank, with a registered capital of 10 million; Termination of equity participation and establishment of Nanhua property insurance; An interest free loan of 200 million yuan was provided to Xinhai ferry for one year. 3) Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) : Guangzhou commercial holding transferred 90% equity of Lingnan group held by Guangzhou SASAC with state-owned assets free of charge. After completion, Guangzhou commercial holding will become the controlling shareholder of Lingnan group
Investment proposal and investment object
With the Chinese New Year's day and the Olympic Games approaching, the number of newly confirmed cases in the local tourism industry is still limited, but the follow-up data such as the Chinese New Year's day and the Olympic Games are expected to recover in the next two weeks. However, it should be emphasized that the market expectation has become more and more sufficient, and the scenic spot plate has rebounded significantly this week. We suggest that at present, we don't have to worry too much about the epidemic situation, but should pay more attention to the changes in the company's own relative competitiveness, and we are clearly optimistic about the repair opportunities on the left at the current time.
Tax free sector: according to the Department of Commerce of Hainan Province, the total sales of duty-free shops on Hainan outlying islands in 21 years was 60.2 billion yuan, an increase of 84% at the same time, and the revenue of China free Q4 is expected to recover; Q4 promotion is still continuing + the proportion of online is still high, and the gross profit margin may still be under pressure, but benefiting from the dilution of rigid expenses, the net profit margin at the operating level is expected to improve compared with Q3 month on month. Looking forward to 22, in the past two weeks, the passenger flow of Haikou and Sanya airports has recovered to 85% of that of the same period last year, and the decline has narrowed. Subsequently, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the opening of phase II of Meilan Airport and online development, the resilience of Q1 revenue is expected to increase; After new year's day, the mainstream discount of offline aromatherapy of China free will shrink to 75% off for three pieces and 20% off for three pieces online. If it continues in the follow-up, the gross profit margin is expected to continue to improve month on month.
Hotel sector: it is recommended to pay attention to Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258, buy), Huazhu group-s (01179, not rated). Q4 the epidemic situation in many places across the country will still have an impact on the recovery of RevPAR, but due to the low base range or less than the epidemic situation in summer; Although the epidemic has a certain impact on the confidence of franchisees, it will further accelerate the clearance of small and medium-sized single hotels, and the supply pattern is expected to be further improved; Recently, Omicron has brought new cases to a new high in many European countries, and overseas demand has recovered and fluctuated, but the performance of Q4 overseas business may be dragged down or better than expected.
Scenic Area: it is recommended to pay attention to Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144, buy), Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) (002159, buy). The performance of Songcheng Q3 is better than expected, which once again demonstrates efficient operation. However, the current round of epidemic has caused many inter provincial travel links, and Q4 is still expected to be affected. It is suggested to seize the low-level opportunity; It is suggested to pay attention to the gradual stripping of loss making projects and the layout of Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) of Qiandao Lake.
Catering sector: it is recommended to pay attention to Helen (09869, not rated) and jiumaojiu (09922, not rated). According to channel feedback, Haidilao, jiumaojiu (Taier) and Helens recovered to 19% in December, and the recovery speed of about 70%, 82% and 95% brands gradually widened the gap in the same period. Based on the medium-term growth logic and short-term business toughness of "cost-effective products + space + services" replacing the long-term tone of the nighttime entertainment demand in the sinking market and "accelerating the opening of stores + highly standardized operation + strong brand potential", it is recommended to pay attention to the chain tavern leader Helen company (09869, not rated) and the note store model Jiumaojiu (09922, Unrated) with multi brand incubation potential.
Risk tips
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations, etc
