Compared with the surge of short-term lithium price, we should pay more attention to performance realization and price sustainability
At present, lithium prices continue to rise, while the performance of the secondary market is weak. Just as our report Tianfeng Q & a series: why the upstream lithium sector continues to deviate from the fundamentals traces back to the last round of lithium price cycle, the stock price deviated from the fundamentals in the last round, and the achievement is more critical. At the same time, the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the cyclical high profit cannot be valued. We believe that with the continuous improvement of the demand for new energy industry in 22 years, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is “volume” rather than “price”. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium plate in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period of 22.
The production and sales data of new forces in December continued to increase, firmly optimistic about the lithium salt demand in the whole year of 22 years
There are two official disclosure platforms for the monthly production and sales data of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry (China Automobile Association and China passenger Federation), but the announcement is delayed by 1-2 weeks, while the data of the new forces of car making is published earlier, so you can get a glimpse of the whole situation through its data. The production and sales data of Wei Xiaoli, a traditional “new force” in China, increased year-on-year in December. Among them, Xiaopeng delivered 16000 new energy vehicles in December, an increase of 2.5% month on month; It is ideal to deliver 14100 new energy vehicles in December, with a month on month increase of 4.5%; Weilai delivered 10500 vehicles in December, a slight decrease of 3.6% month on month. At the same time, the second-line “new power” brand had a strong volume in December, of which 7807 new energy vehicles were delivered in December, with a month on month increase of 38.7%. The sales data was close to Weilai, while car enterprises such as jikrypton, lantu and Skyworth all achieved a month on month increase of more than 50%. Looking forward to 2022, Xiaopeng automobile will soon deliver its flagship suvg9, and P7 may also usher in the modification; Weilai will realize three NT2 Delivery of model 0, including et7, and et5; The ideal new flagship model X01 will also be launched, and the launch of new models will continue to promote the high demand for lithium salts in the upstream.
Pilbara lowered the 22-year production guidelines, and the lithium price is expected to remain high in 22 years
This week, the contract of lithium carbonate in February 22 has risen to 366000. In the short term, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products on the demand side has increased greatly, the order inquiry is positive, and the rise of new energy vehicles superimposed on the terminal is hot. However, the power restriction in various regions on the supply side and the gas restriction policy in heating season in Qinghai have a significant impact on the production of lithium carbonate. Pilbara, one of the core supply increments in 22 years, lowered its production guidelines this week, including 1) the Q4 production guidelines in 21 years was lowered to 85000-95000 tons of concentrate. (originally planned to be 90000-115000 tons of concentrate) 2) the production guidelines of pilabra in fiscal year 22 were reduced (originally planned to be 460000-510000 tons of concentrate), which is now reduced to 400000-450000 tons of concentrate. The tight supply and demand of lithium salt continues, and the lithium price is expected to remain high in 22 years. Short term suggestions: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) etc.
South Africa has more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day, and the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again
On November 26, a mutant strain was found in South Africa, with more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day. Many countries have restricted the entry of relevant personnel from South Africa. South Africa is the largest transit place for cobalt transportation in Africa. It has been closed due to the outbreak of the epidemic for 20 years. If the new variant is not effectively controlled in South Africa, the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again. Looking forward to the future, the end of the year is the centralized preparation period for downstream battery plants. The shortage of raw materials may be further amplified, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to reach a new high. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of less than expected demand recovery, the risk of large increase in upstream supply, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of significant increase in inventory.
