Market review: plate overall decline, Baijiu, beer declined significantly
Last week, SW food and beverage fell 3.47%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.51%, and the sector fell as a whole. In the molecular industry, beer industry dropped 5.25% last week, the Baijiu industry dropped 4.71%, the food industry dropped 1.85%, the dairy industry fell 2.40%, the meat industry increased by 2.41%, and the seasoning industry rose 2.87%.
Previous views: continue the main line of stability recommendation, and optimize the leading and high prosperity track
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu: we have focused on the high-end liquor opportunities in the first two months. We will continue to push the high-end liquor sector, and high-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis. The key recommendation is Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers to the Baijiu plate and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The 2022 performance is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset.
Beer: the logic of the main line of the plate is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal change and significantly accelerate the leading target. We believe that the next 2-3 years will usher in a beta market in the beer industry, mainly due to the release of profit elasticity brought by structural upgrading or accelerated superposition of industry efficiency improvement. In the beta market, we suggest paying attention to the subjects with significant marginal changes and continuously recommending Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . In addition, we suggest paying attention to the marginal changes in Yanjing. In recent years, the company has continuously promoted the middle and high-end process through new U8, V10 and other series. At the same time, the internal reform is also continuously promoted. We suggest paying active attention.
Catering industry chain: benefiting from the chain development of catering enterprises, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the cultivation of family consumption scenes by the epidemic, the prefabricated vegetable industry is in full swing. It is recommended to pay attention to quick-frozen food faucet Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , frozen baking faucet Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , b-end service focused Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and prefabricated dishes East China faucet Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . At the same time, Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) continues to be recommended, mainly because Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) is the leader in China’s vegetable fat powder industry, and the diversified expansion of coffee, plant-based drinks and other businesses. Taking advantage of existing customers and channels, the coffee business is expected to grow into the second growth curve.
Soft drinks: Probiotics related companies performed well, and the logic of Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) large single products continued to deduce. Affected by the experimental news related to Helicobacter pylori this week, the business targets related to probiotics recorded a large increase, and Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) and Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks Co.Ltd(605388) in food and beverage have probiotic business. In terms of traditional drinks, Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) national large single product logic continues to deduce. At present, the company actively develops markets outside the province, and the channel potential has an obvious upward trend. With the promotion of the company’s nationalization process and the superposition of cost control and accurate delivery of expenses, it is expected to maintain rapid growth in 22 years. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Dairy products: this week Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) issued a price adjustment announcement, which said that in view of the continuous rise in the costs of main raw materials, packaging materials, labor and transportation, it was decided to adjust the exit price of main condensed milk related products by 3% – 10%. We believe that the logic of Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) price increase is smooth. The company has adjusted the ex factory price of main condensed milk related products. It is expected that its price increase measures will bring greater profit elasticity to the company.
Suggestions: Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) , Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337)
Data tracking:
Baijiu: Moutai, national cellar price slightly rose, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price slightly declined.
Beer industry: the output rebounded and increased, the price of imported barley increased, the price of glass increased, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly
Dairy industry: the average price of fresh milk decreased slightly, the price of whole milk powder decreased, the price of skimmed milk powder increased, the price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the import price of corn decreased slightly
Risk tip: the consumption scenario caused by the epidemic is limited, the terminal mobile sales do not meet expectations, the high-end process is blocked, food safety problems, etc.
