Xi’an, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other areas affected by the epidemic, the pace of regional consumer recovery has been affected in the short term. The trend of steady growth in consumption is unchanged in the whole country. In 2022, the main line of investment in high-quality, structured and scene restoration is closely linked: Based on the fundamental triangulation analysis of enterprises, such as brand, good business and management efficiency, we are optimistic about the high quality and stable growth of Baijiu road. We are optimistic about the secondary high-end and high-end structured expansion, grasp the reform dividend brought by the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform (2020-2022), and continue to be optimistic about the high-end of the beer track and the price increase and scene restoration of other mass products. It is expected that the offline consumption scene affected by the epidemic will gradually recover with the warming of the weather and the effective control of the epidemic.
Baijiu: (1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has strong pricing power as the industry leader, and has recently raised its export price of 53 degrees flying apex to 150 US dollars / bottle. At the same time, it has raised the guidance price of new color treasures to 4599 yuan / bottle, and fifteen years of aging guidance price has been raised 1000 yuan to 5999 yuan / bottle. On January 5, 2022, the conference of Maotai flavor liquor dealers was held. Chairman Ding Xiongjun pointed out that the Maotai flavor liquor company sold 30000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, achieved a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22%. It is expected to achieve a total profit of 5.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60%. At the end of the 14th five year plan, it will strive to achieve the goal of more than 24 billion yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the group’s revenue; According to the production and operation announcement of the company in 2021, the annual revenue of the company’s series of wines is RMB 12.6 billion, and it is estimated that the CAGR will reach 17.5% in the next four years. (2) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) as the leader of fragrance, the revenue outside the province has accounted for more than 50%. In the future, the core growth power comes from the expansion and deepening of the nationalization of the market. At the same time, pay attention to the growth of Fenjiu Qinghua 30 revival edition at the price of 1000 yuan; (3) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) in terms of taste, it is willing to achieve rapid landing at the price of 400 + in Sichuan, northeast, Shandong and East China, and is optimistic about the rapid nationalization of the company from top to bottom at the sub high-end price. (4) Focus on the deep cultivation and expansion outside the province of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Dream Blue brand M6 + and crystal after the reform of series marketing system and mechanism, and it is expected that the performance will accelerate in 2022.
Dairy products: it is expected that the price of raw milk will remain high and the overall competition pattern of the industry will slow down. It is expected that the price of raw milk will remain high in 2022, and the product structure will be inclined to high-end. Major dairy companies will maintain the cost reduction trend and ensure profit margins under cost pressure. At the upstream pasture level, all dairy enterprises have increased the distribution of milk sources to ensure the stable supply of raw milk, controllable quality and stabilize cost fluctuations.
Snack food: the industry has gradually improved, focusing on the dual logic of product + channel. Benefiting from the improvement of overall demand and the price increase in the fourth quarter, the Spring Festival stock season began in December, and the industry is gradually repairing. At the product level, continue to pay attention to the steady growth of the first product curve and the cultivation of mature and growing enterprises in the second product curve. At the channel level, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) dynamic sales have gradually improved and the industry as a whole is developing well as the popularity of community group buying slows down.
Investment recommendations: the three main investment lines of high quality, structured and scenario repair remain unchanged. The short-term trend of disturbance will lead to a revival of consumption, but it will not affect the general direction of recovery. We recommend the high-end liquor Baijiu with the pricing power and the secondary high-end structural expansion benefit targets, and configure the industry leaders and scene restoration targets that benefit the price. Recommendations: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety accident risk.
