1. Analysis on investment framework of photovoltaic equipment
1. Classification of photovoltaic equipment
Photovoltaic equipment includes four categories: silicon material equipment, silicon wafer equipment, battery equipment and module equipment.
2. Photovoltaic equipment investment framework
Photovoltaic equipment investment logic ①: second-order guidance of terminal demand. The demand for photovoltaic equipment is closely related to the global photovoltaic installed capacity. This relationship is: the difference between the global PV installed capacity in T and the global PV installed capacity in T-1 is the global PV newly installed capacity in T, and the difference between the global PV newly installed capacity in T and the global newly installed capacity in T-1 is the demand for PV incremental capacity.
Based on this second-order derivative relationship, the demand for photovoltaic equipment is smoother only from the perspective of downstream photovoltaic installed capacity. The former mainly provides long-term development space for the latter.
3. 2020-2021: review and Prospect of photovoltaic equipment market
2020-2021 is the year of photovoltaic equipment. Resume the PV equipment market since 2020. In 2020, the second-order discharge capacity is required for the battery link (expansion of Tongwei and Longji batteries), and in 2021, the second-order discharge capacity is required for the silicon chip link (expansion of new forces of silicon chips), so as to improve the performance of PV equipment enterprises. At the same time, with the implementation of new technologies such as large-size, hjt and TOPCON, the valuation of PV equipment enterprises is improved.
Due to the rise of upstream raw materials and energy costs, new technological changes began to appear in all links of photovoltaic in 2021. The core contradiction behind it is that the cost reduction of the existing industrial chain has reached the bottleneck period. From the rise and fall of photovoltaic equipment stocks and the logic behind it, silicon wafer equipment benefits from the second-order guidance of terminal demand, and battery equipment is mainly the update demand expectation driven by technical iteration. ( Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) mainly refers to the logic from the device to the silicon chip)
2. The second-order derivative of downstream demand weakens
1. Demand side: the newly installed capacity of PV is expected to reach 210gw in 2022
The second-order derivative of downstream demand weakens
Photovoltaic demand: supply release + new technology capital expenditure in 2022 will lay a big demand year. Silicon material: the first large-scale supply release after 531, and the supply bottleneck will be broken; Silicon wafer: 2021 is the year of capacity release, and 2022 is the year of output release; Battery: the whole industry will lose money in 2021, and the n-type capital expenditure is expected to be released on a large scale in 2022. The efficiency is expected to increase from 23% to 24%. Jibang consulting predicts that the global PV installed capacity will exceed 210gw in 2022.
Policy guarantee: the maximum component price is 2.2 yuan / W, and the current price is concentrated at 2-2.05 yuan / W. From the indicator side, 100gw of phase I of Fengguang base is expected to be connected to the grid before 2023, and the average annual scale is expected to exceed 50gw in the next two years. There is also phase II Planning in the follow-up. In addition, according to the provincial guarantee plan, the scale of photovoltaic exceeds 65gw, and most of them need to be connected to the grid before the end of 2022.
2. Supply side: capacity analysis of all links in 2022
Silicon material link: the price decline is good for the whole photovoltaic industry chain, and the production capacity is expected to continue to expand. The silicon material capacity is expected to reach 250-300gw in 2022, and there will be continuous capital expenditure in the next few years. In the stock industry chain, silicon capital expenditure lags behind silicon wafers and batteries. From the equipment side, the production peak of the first round of silicon material equipment is from October 2020 to March 2021. Considering that the silicon material link is still profitable even if it falls below 200 yuan / kg, it is expected that the industry will continue to expand production in 2022.
Silicon wafer sector: industry profitability is under pressure, and new production capacity is expected to slow down. 2021 is a big year for the expansion of silicon wafer production. By the end of 2021, the nominal capacity of the silicon wafer industry exceeds 350gw, the total capacity exceeds the demand, the excess capacity and the difficulty in obtaining silicon materials will lead to the acceleration of the elimination of small manufacturers in 2022, and the old furnace platforms of large factories and vertical integration plants may also be shut down. From the perspective of structure, the number of new players in the silicon wafer sector has continued to increase since 2019. The expanded capacity in 2020 is basically 182, 210 and other new capacity. It is expected that the scale of new capacity will exceed 200GW by the end of 2021, which will drive the overall profitability of the industry under pressure in 2022. In this context, the differentiation of silicon wafer production capacity by the competition pattern may lead to continuous production expansion, but it is expected that the increase in scale is not obvious compared with that in 2021, and the gross profit margin of equipment may decline due to the pressure on the overall profit of the industry.
Battery link: profitability will welcome recovery, and new technologies will boost production capacity to break the situation. In 2021, the expansion of battery production was mainly concentrated in Q1. Since then, due to the decline of profitability, the scale of expansion continued to decrease. By the end of 2021, the nominal capacity of the battery industry is expected to exceed 350gw, and the total amount is in excess; However, the large-scale capacity is expected to be about 150gw, and there is still a structural gap. With the price reduction of silicon materials, it is expected that the profitability of large-size batteries will recover in 2022. However, considering that hjt, TOPCON and other technologies are accelerating the implementation, it is expected that the new capacity of pure perc will decline, and the new technology capacity is expected to usher in an outbreak.
Component link: the competition of large-scale camp drives the second iteration of equipment. By the end of 2021, the capacity of components is expected to exceed 400gw, but the total capacity of large-size components is expected to be 150-200gw. The total capacity is surplus, but there is a structural gap. It is expected that the capacity of large-size components will continue to expand in 2022. However, for the component equipment, especially the series welding machine, it is expected to achieve two iterations under the dispute between the 182 and 210 camps, that is, the large size replaces the small size, and the 210 replaces 182 (the battery end usually purchases the 210 equipment for downward compatibility, and the large size only has one iteration). Therefore, only the second-order derivative requirements are considered, and the performance of the component equipment is relatively more sustainable. Moreover, in the process of hjt replacing perc, the series welder still needs a round of capital expenditure.
3 new technology of silicon material: granular silicon
1. Granular silicon: principle and process introduction
Improved Siemens process: at present, the world's mainstream silicon material production process is based on the principle that trichlorosilane is reduced with hydrogen on the silicon core at about 1050 ℃ to generate polycrystalline silicon and deposited on the silicon core. The reduction process adopts polysilicon reduction furnace, which deposits the decomposed silicon single substance on the silicon core and slowly grows into silicon rod. After improvement by Siemens, this process basically realizes no emission and greatly improves the safety, so it can be popularized. Based on this, the improved Siemens process is a process of producing rod silicon by vapor deposition in polysilicon reduction furnace.
Silane fluidized bed method (FBR): the principle is to lay the fine silicon particle seeds on the fluidized bed layer with pores, and then introduce silane from below. At this time, the silicon particle seeds have fluid characteristics. Under heating and other reactions, the silicon simple substance is deposited on the silicon particle seeds to generate large silicon particles, which are sent out of the fluidized bed equipment through the discharge pipe. Based on this, silane fluidized bed process is a process of producing granular silicon by silane cracking using fluidized bed equipment.
2. Granular silicon: carbon footprint is the highlight of promotion
Advantages of granular silicon: first, lower cost and focus on the prospect of carbon reduction. Granular silicon has lower investment intensity, power consumption and labor cost. In June 2021, China energy silicon obtained the first carbon footprint certificate of China's granular silicon, and the carbon footprint per kilogram of granular silicon was 20.74 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (compared with 57.559 kg of wack). Second, feeding advantage. For the RCZ process, the granular silicon can reduce the damage to the furnace wall and has better fluidity; For the continuous crystal drawing (CCZ) process, the granular silicon can meet the feeding demand 100% and has better adaptability.
Disadvantages of granular silicon: one is "carbon", that is, the carbon content of granular silicon is relatively high, which will eventually affect the crystal drawing quality; According to the disclosure of GCL, the content of granular silicon carbon currently produced is lower than 0.4ppma, meeting the customer's mass production standard.
The second is "hydrogen", that is, the high hydrogen content of granular silicon leads to the problem of silicon jump. According to the feedback from Jiangsu Zhongneng, hydrogen can be released after heating. At present, the hydrogen content has been reduced to 10ppm. The third is "powder", that is, the dust problem affects the crystal drawing quality.
4 new silicon wafer technology: ingot single crystal, n-type
1.1 ingot single crystal: introduction to principle and advantages
Cast monocrystalline silicon wafer refers to the polycrystalline ingot furnace, adding single crystal seed crystal on the basis of conventional polycrystalline ingot casting process, forming square silicon ingot after directional solidification, and finally making monocrystalline silicon wafer through square cutting, slicing and other links. Advantages of ingot single crystal: ① low requirements for silicon material, and the cost of silicon material is less than half of that of conventional crystal drawing; ② Polycrystalline technology is adopted, with lower power consumption.
The problems of ingot single crystal: ① the conversion efficiency is lower than that of pulling crystal; ② Single crystal yield. GCL is a pioneer in the industry. It released "Xin single crystal" in 2011 and has continued to improve since then, but it has not been popularized on a large scale because of the low yield of single crystal, diluting the cost of silicon material and power consumption. In 2021, enterprises represented by Fujian Haiyuan Composites Technology Co.Ltd(002529) and Jinyang New Energy improved on the traditional basis and further improved the yield.
1.2 ingot single crystal: not subversion, but resource recycling
Ingot single crystal is a supplement to Czochralski single crystal. The sources of silicon materials used for ingot single crystal are four categories: ① silicon materials that cannot be used for Czochralski single crystal, such as head and tail materials, broken materials, etc; ② Scrap from slicing; ③ Return materials that cannot be used for monocrystalline silicon materials, such as pot bottom materials; ④ Scrap components and recycled materials.
Fujian Haiyuan Composites Technology Co.Ltd(002529) is currently the leader of A-share ingot single crystal, and its largest shareholder Saiwei has obtained the approval of the production line of 30000 tons of recycled silicon material project. It is expected that the production capacity of GW grade ingot single crystal silicon wafer will be released in 2022.
2.1. N-type silicon wafer: process introduction
N-type silicon wafer is the reverse demand of high-efficiency battery. P-type silicon wafer refers to boron doped silicon wafer, n-type silicon wafer refers to phosphorus doped silicon wafer, and n-type silicon wafer has longer minority carrier life. The battery structure with higher conversion efficiency is more sensitive to minority carrier life. Therefore, at present, TOPCON, hjt, IBC and other high-efficiency batteries are developed on the basis of n-type silicon wafer.
Process change: at present, the cost of n-type silicon wafer is higher than that of p-type silicon wafer, and the initial investment is higher. Compared with p-type silicon wafer, the core of n-type silicon wafer process change is to improve the quality of silicon wafer. The methods mainly include: selecting higher purity silicon material, adopting different crushing / cleaning processes and adopting higher purity heat field.
2.2. N-type silicon wafer: it is expected to expand production by 10GW in 2022
N-type silicon wafers are also easier to be thinned, and it is expected to expand production on a large scale in 2022. In 2020, the average thickness of p-type silicon wafer is 175 μ m. The average thickness of n-type silicon wafer for heterojunction is 150 μ m. The n-type silicon wafer for IBC is 130 μ m。 At present, the permeability of n-type silicon wafer is still low, which is only 3.3% in 2020. In November 2021, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) purchased n-type G12 photovoltaic monocrystalline silicon from central, with a purchase quantity of no less than 70.1 million, with an estimated total amount of about 667 million yuan.
Influence of n-type silicon wafer on silicon wafer equipment: the single crystal furnace needs to be reformed in the crystal drawing process of n-type silicon wafer, and a higher purity thermal field needs to be adopted to improve the service life of minority carriers. Taking the draft tube as an example, its purity grade is divided into grade I < 200ppm, grade II < 100ppm and grade III < 30ppm, which meet the production requirements of photovoltaic p-type single crystal, n-type single crystal and semiconductor silicon single crystal respectively. Focus on Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) and other thermal field equipment targets.
5 new battery technologies: TOPCON, hjt, IBC and perovskite
TOPCON (tunnel oxide passivated contact) usually adopts n-type structure. Compared with perc, it adds a tunneling layer, which includes two layers: one is that 1-2nm ultra-thin SiO2 is used as the tunneling layer to achieve passivation, and the other is that 100nm doped polysilicon layer forms the back heterojunction structure.
Advantages: the conversion efficiency is higher than that of perc and can be compatible with perc production line. The average conversion efficiency in 2021 will exceed 24%.
Disadvantages: the production line has continuous upgrading pressure; The process is complex and the yield is relatively low.
6. New component technology: serial welding process matching
Component equipment: component equipment refers to the equipment that connects the battery pieces in series and in parallel to form components, including series welding machine, bus bar automatic welding machine, laminating machine, trimming machine, El tester, full-automatic framing machine, junction box equipment, cleaning equipment and IV tester.
Market space: by the end of 2020, the investment in single GW of component equipment has been reduced to 63 million yuan, of which series welding machine equipment is the core. A 250MW production line needs to be equipped with four series welding machines, and the price of a single set is 1.35-1.5 million yuan, that is, the investment in single GW of series welding machine is 20-24 million yuan, which is the most core component equipment. It is estimated that the component capacity will be expanded by 95.1gw (182 + 210) in 2021, with a corresponding equipment market space of 6 billion yuan and a corresponding string welding machine market space of 2 billion yuan.
7 investment strategy: fully embrace new technologies
The impact of demand second-order derivative is weakening, and the impact of new technology change is becoming stronger. Resume the market of photovoltaic equipment since 2020. 2020 is the demand of battery link
The second-order discharge capacity (expansion of Tongwei and Longji batteries) is the demand for the second-order discharge capacity of silicon wafer in 2021 (expansion of silicon wafer new forces), which drives the performance improvement of photovoltaic equipment enterprises. At the same time, with the implementation of new technologies such as large-size, hjt and TOPCON, it drives the valuation improvement of photovoltaic equipment enterprises. In 2022, the second-order impact of demand in various links of photovoltaic will weaken. Under the background of relative saturation of production capacity and the bottleneck of cost reduction, the cost reduction and efficiency increase of various new technologies can drive the photovoltaic industry to continue to break the situation.
Based on this, we give the "overweight" rating to the photovoltaic equipment industry. In 2022, we suggest to focus on the progress of new technologies:
① mass production of granular silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) ;
② ingot single crystal technology, it is recommended to pay attention to Fujian Haiyuan Composites Technology Co.Ltd(002529) and recommend Jinyang New Energy;
③ n-type silicon wafer technology, recommended Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , recommended to pay attention to Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) ;
④ high efficiency slicing technology, recommended Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ;
⑤ new heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency enhancement technologies, such as tube P, RPD, copper electroplating and microcrystallization, are recommended Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Fujian Haiyuan Composites Technology Co.Ltd(002529) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ;
⑥ for large-scale production expansion of TOPCON, it is recommended to Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) and pay attention to Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ;
⑦ IBC technology, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ;
⑧ perovskite technology, recommended Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , recommended to pay attention to J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) , Shenzhen Jpt Opto-Electronics Co.Ltd(688025) ;
⑨ update and upgrade the series welding machine. It is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) .
Risk warning: the promotion of new technology is not as expected, the business progress of relevant subjects is not as expected, the performance of relevant subjects is not as expected, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
