The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased steadily, with the penetration rate of 20.8% in November
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 378500 in mid November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 122% and a month on month increase of 19%. From January to November 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 2.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 178%. In November, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 20.8%, exceeding 20% again, and may remain above 20% in 2022.
The global new energy vehicle sales growth is optimistic, and the future sales growth momentum is sufficient
EV volumes data show that in November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 229000, a year-on-year increase of 34%. In December, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the United States was about 75000, a year-on-year increase of 56%. From January to December, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 620000, a year-on-year increase of 88%. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 3.4 million in 2021 and 5 million in 2022. EV volumes predicts that the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 6.8 million in 2021 and is expected to exceed 10 million in 2022.
New energy vehicle enterprises generally have better sales and clearer market competition structure
Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume in December reached 92800, and the cumulative sales volume from January to December reached 590000, ranking first in China in terms of single month sales and cumulative sales. Tesla China sold about 53000 vehicles in November. From January to November, China’s cumulative sales reached 250000, ranking third in China. The delivery volume of Xiaopeng, Weilai and ideal in December is about 16000, 10500 and 14000 respectively. The cumulative delivery volume from January to December is 98000, 91000 and 90000 respectively. “Weixiaoli” becomes “xiaoweili”.
The accelerating trend of capacity expansion of new energy vehicles coexists with the rising cost at the supply side
In December, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles continued to be strong, and the market as a whole was in short supply. At the same time, based on the expectation that the demand continued to increase due to the impact of a series of policies such as the decline of subsidies, the trend of capacity expansion accelerated. Meanwhile, the price of raw materials led by battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. As of December 30, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 277500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 439%.
Investment advice
In the short term, the rising price of lithium carbonate will put pressure on the manufacturing cost of vehicle manufacturers, but we believe that the price of lithium carbonate in 2022 is likely to become the top area of this round of price increase, and the price is expected to gradually stabilize or even fall in the future. Vehicle manufacturers that can achieve mass production and sales on a large scale are more able to absorb the cost rise caused by the rise in the price of raw materials.
Looking forward to 2022, Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) will increasingly consolidate their leading position in the Chinese market. Among them, the commencement of Tesla‘s Berlin plant in Germany will significantly improve Tesla’s overall capacity, so that Tesla’s Shanghai plant can configure more capacity to meet the Chinese market. The factories of Byd Company Limited(002594) shares in Changzhou, Hefei and other places are expected to form mass production capacity in 2022, so as to support the further rapid growth of Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicle sales compared with 2021, reaching the level of 1.5 million vehicles. Maintain the recommendation to actively focus on Tesla (tsla. O) and Byd Company Limited(002594) shares (1211. HK).
