Many cities, including Xinyu in Jiangxi, Yichun in Jiangxi, Suining in Sichuan, Ningde in Fujian, Zaozhuang in Shandong, Xinxiang in Henan, Changzhou in Jiangsu, Changxing in Zhejiang, Jingmen in Hubei and Yibin in Sichuan, are determined to build “lithium battery city” or “power battery city”. How many realistic considerations and subjective impulses are behind the rise of Dudu?
In early April, vision technology was put into operation in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) the zero carbon power battery factory. The plant mainly produces square shell lithium iron phosphate batteries used in energy storage and heavy truck power exchange. The production capacity of phase I project is 10gwh (GWH). As soon as the news came out, it immediately attracted great attention in the industry.
This is the symbol of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) building a zero carbon city in the capital of coal. It is also the vision of taking the zero carbon industrial park as a “new infrastructure” and “committed to promoting the transformation of global green energy”. It is also the “masterpiece” of science and technology to effectively promote carbon neutrality.
Over the past year, with the development of new energy vehicle industry, the phenomenon of lithium shortage has rapidly spread to the whole industry. More and more enterprises announced to expand capacity or join the lithium battery industry. Power battery manufacturers represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC (AVIC lithium battery) and honeycomb energy have successively announced large-scale production expansion, and chemical enterprises such as Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) and so on have poured into lithium battery materials. In addition, many enterprises have joined the lithium industry.
From mining to lithium battery material production, and then to lithium battery production, it stimulates the confidence of all localities in the lithium Industrial Park. Many cities in China are determined to build “lithium battery city” or “power battery city”. How many realistic considerations and subjective impulses are behind the rise of Dudu?
“double carbon” goal promotes industrial explosion
In September 2020, China clearly put forward the goals of “carbon peaking” in 2030 and “carbon neutralization” in 2060. On May 26, 2021, the first plenary meeting of the leading group of carbon peak carbon neutralization was held in Beijing; On October 24, the opinions on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council were released. So far, China’s green and low-carbon industry has been injected with strong power.
The shell finance reporter of the Beijing News noted that under the influence of national incentive policies, lithium batteries are sought after as the ideal power battery of new energy vehicles, and the stock sector has also opened a rapid rise mode. From more than 2100 points in mid May 2021 to more than 3900 points in early December. Although in the first quarter of 2022, under the influence of industry norms and other factors, the lithium battery sector continued to decline, falling below 3000 points from nearly 4000 points in early December 2021, down by a quarter, this did not prevent the warming of the lithium battery industry.
According to the public information disclosure of China Automobile Association, in 2021, the output of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output accumulated 219.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%; The total loading volume of power battery was 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) market accounts for 52.1% Byd Company Limited(002594) market accounts for 16.2%; China Innovation Airlines ranks third, accounting for 5.9% of the market. The fourth to tenth places are Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , LG new energy, honeycomb energy, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Tafel new energy, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc. In 2020, the total installed capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile power lithium battery was 63.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The monthly installed capacity of power battery has been in negative growth for some time.
The reporter of shell finance found that in the middle of 2021, 58 power battery enterprises in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market realized loading supporting, 13 less than that in the same period of last year; Compared with 2019, 2020 has decreased by 7. At that time, the industry downturn for a period of time hindered the development of lithium battery industry.
“Lithium batteries started from the application of freight cars and gradually covered passenger cars. At this time, passenger cars put forward higher requirements for the production of lithium batteries. From August 2020, there has been an inflection point in the lithium battery industry, production recovery, enterprise expansion and the adjustment of survival of the fittest, which can not adapt to the enterprise transformation or exit of the passenger car market.” Zhao Chong, a researcher at the Institute of lithium batteries (GGII), told shell finance.
In 2021, new energy vehicles suddenly pressed the acceleration button, and the output soared from 1.36 million in 2020 to 3.521 million. This undoubtedly puts great pressure on the development of lithium battery enterprises that have just recovered from the life and death line. The prices of raw materials and raw materials continue to rise, the production tasks are saturated, and large enterprises begin to enter the market.
lithium battery label is contested by multiple cities
With the development of new energy vehicle industry, lithium battery industry is also rising. This directly stimulates the ambition of all localities in “lithium battery”. According to the Research Report of Zhongyan Puhua, it is estimated that the global lithium battery market will reach US $91.8 billion by 2025. According to the current market analysis, China accounts for more than half of the lithium battery industry.
Shell finance reporter found that since 2010, at least 10 cities have launched an impact on the “capital of lithium batteries” or “capital of power batteries”. Many cities, including Jiangxi Xinyu, Jiangxi Yichun, Sichuan Suining, Fujian Ningde, Shandong Zaozhuang, Henan Xinxiang, Jiangsu Changzhou, Zhejiang Changxing, Hubei Jingmen and Sichuan Yibin, began to enter the lithium battery industry.
“The lithium-ion batteries that people talk about everyday are generally lithium-ion batteries, which are generally composed of positive electrode, diaphragm, negative electrode, organic electrolyte and battery shell. In production, lithium-ion batteries are faced with raw material production, raw material processing, battery production and other links. They are basic new energy products with high technical requirements and can be produced through multiple complex processes. Therefore, they need the chain cooperation of multiple enterprises.” Zhao Chong introduced to the reporter of shell finance and economics.
In April 2018, Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province issued the “30 measures to promote Ganfeng Yabao’s leading role in building a global lithium battery highland”. According to the work report data of Xinyu municipal government, in 2020, the lithium salt production capacity of Xinyu reached 185000 tons, and the output increased to 115000 tons, accounting for 41.1% of the national output and 28.8% of the world. The export of lithium hydroxide accounts for more than 50% of the international market share, and has become the world’s largest production base of lithium battery cathode raw materials for passenger cars. The local government described the development of lithium battery industry as “turning steel city into lithium battery capital”.
Yichun City, adjacent to Xinyu City, also places the lithium battery industry in an important position. Since the two giants Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) established a lithium battery production base in Yichun in 2021, they have strengthened their determination to develop the local lithium battery industry.
The work report of Yichun Municipal Government in 2021 pointed out that we should integrate policies, concentrate funds and gather forces to promote the lithium battery new energy industry to a new level. Its goal is to build a “lithium capital in Asia”.
Zhao Chong said that Xinyu and Yichun have formed industrial clusters because they are close to lithium mines, while lithium batteries in Yibin, Sichuan are also booming because of raw materials.
Yibin City, Sichuan, pointed out in the 2022 government work report that it will strive to build a “1 + 6” industrial ecosystem of power batteries, strive to achieve an operating revenue of 40 billion yuan, and accelerate the construction of a power battery industry base with world influence and a “power battery capital”. Suining City, Sichuan Province, through the “Suining release”, proposed to “promote the lithium battery industry as the focus of the ‘No. 1 project’ of the city’s industrial development, and make every effort to build the ‘lithium battery capital of China’.”
In addition, Shandong Zaozhuang is building a “lithium battery city in the north”, Hubei Jingmen is building a “lithium battery city in Central China”, Henan Xinxiang is building a “power battery city”, Zhejiang Changxing is building a “green energy power city”, Fujian Ningde is building a “lithium battery city of the world” with an annual output value of 100 billion, and Jiangsu Changzhou is known as the “neglected lithium battery city”.
“Every lithium battery capital has a specific background. Some are gathered due to mineral resources, some are prospered due to the advantages of traditional technology, some are adjacent to automobile production clusters, and some are gathered over the years – but it remains to be seen whether they can develop well in the future.” Zhao Chong said.
beware of making things out of nothing regardless of actual conditions
While many cities across the country actively layout and expand the lithium battery industry, major manufacturers are not idle, running around and enclosure.
In July 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced that it would build a new lithium battery manufacturing base in Yichun, which will form an annual production capacity of 50gwh lithium-ion power battery. In July of the same year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Yibin City, Sichuan Province signed an agreement on deepening cooperation in an all-round way. On the basis of the original phase VI project, it will invest in the construction of phase VII to phase X of Yibin power battery manufacturing base in Sanjiang new area of Yibin, which will build Sichuan times into one of the largest power battery production bases in the world. According to the calculation of professional battery platform, since August 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has laid out several lithium battery projects in China, and will add 394gwh of capacity According to the plan, the production capacity is expected to exceed 670gwh in 2025
On July 9, 2021, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) subsidiary honeycomb Energy announced that the global battery capacity layout will be about 100GWh by 2025 On November 12, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) said to increase the capacity of lithium battery to 300gwh According to public information, Byd Company Limited(002594) planned capacity will exceed 600gwh, and that of China Innovation Airlines is 500gwh
According to the combing of several professional platforms, the new production capacity of lithium batteries invested by leading enterprises in the next five years will exceed 2000 GWH, about 12 times the loading volume in 2021, while the total demand for power batteries in 2025 will only be about 600 GWH, up to 1000 GWH even with energy storage and foreign markets
However, Zhao Chong believes that production capacity is not equal to production. In the future, some projects will maintain the utilization rate of production capacity, while some projects will be compressed and even eliminated. In addition to the large local investment of major enterprises, the “war” for lithium mines has also burned overseas. At present, several professional platforms have issued warnings to remind the crisis behind the expansion of lithium battery capacity.
In response to the practice of building “lithium battery capital” in various places, Professor Chen Yao, vice president and Secretary General of China regional economic society, told the reporter of shell finance and economics, “There is no problem in the industrial development of industry clustering and agglomeration. As long as we have certain resource endowment, industrial foundation and external conditions, we can gather and form industrial clusters. However, we should guard against making things out of nothing regardless of actual conditions. Combined with the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market “Identify their own functional positioning, and strive to avoid greed for foreign countries, low-level repeated construction and excessive homogeneous competition.” we should not easily deny industrial agglomeration in one place, but also limit malicious troublemakers. “
On November 18, 2021, the electronic information department of the Ministry of industry and information technology organized the revision of the specification conditions for lithium ion battery industry (2021 version). In addition to the requirements on land use and environmental protection, this “normative condition” also requires “guiding enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and reduce production costs”. At the same time, it further requires that “the actual output of the previous year at the time of application shall not be less than 50% of the actual production capacity of the current year”.
In fact, at present, lithium-ion batteries are popular in the new energy track, but in the long run, it is not likely to be dominated by one. At present, many enterprises have actively deployed hydrogen fuel cells. At the same time, the large-scale industrialization of sodium ion batteries has begun. Compared with electric vehicles, Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, is more interested in methanol fuel vehicles and has called for the popularization of methanol fuel and methanol vehicles on many occasions. Therefore, the lithium battery territory of almost “unifying the Jianghu” will be full of development diversity in the future.
