\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Events
The company issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express: the total operating revenue in 2021 was 285.05 billion yuan (+ 17.2%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.58 billion yuan (- 4.74%); The basic earnings per share is 2.30 yuan (the previous value is 2.42 yuan).
The sales side grew steadily and the equity ratio remained stable
Sales side: from January to December 2021, the company's sales increased steadily, achieving a cumulative contracted amount of 534.9 billion yuan (+ 6.4%), a contracted area of 33.33 million square meters (- 2.2%), and an average sales price of 16049 yuan / square meter (+ 8.8%). In Q4, the contracted area in a single quarter was 7.89 million square meters (- 18.2%), the contracted amount was 124.7 billion yuan (- 8.0%), and the average sales price was 15800 yuan / square meter (+ 12.6%). According to the company's announcement and Kerry's top 100 sales list, the equity ratio of the company from 2018 to 2021 is calculated to be 71.0%, 69.1%, 72.0% and 69.5% respectively, which is generally stable at around 70%.
Financial stability, smooth financing, taking into account the scale and profit guarantee
Financial side: by the end of 2021q3, all indicators have met the medium and green enterprise standard of "three red lines", in which the company's net debt ratio is about 67.6%; After excluding advance receipts, the asset liability ratio is about 65.6%; Covering nearly 2.3 times of short-term debt. By the end of Q3, the company's monetary capital in hand was about 132.11 billion yuan, with strong short-term solvency.
Financing side: the company successfully issued 4 medium-term notes, 8 general corporate bonds and 5 ABS in 2021, with a total issuance scale of RMB 21.4 billion; Among them, Q4 has successfully issued two medium-term notes, with a total issuance scale of 5 billion yuan, and the coupon rates are 3.25% and 3.55% respectively. On December 29, 2021, the board of directors of the company unanimously approved the proposal on the registration of RMB 10 billion medium-term notes. The company's domestic bonds due in 2022 and 2023 are RMB 9.4 billion and RMB 8.4 billion respectively. At the end of 2021, the regulatory authorities repeatedly released real estate financial policy signals to guide the financing environment of real estate enterprises to gradually "unfreeze". The high-quality model real estate enterprises benefited a lot and the company's capital sources were further enriched.
Soil storage end: give consideration to scale and profit guarantee. In 2021, the company has 145 new expansion projects, with a new construction area of 27.223 million square meters and a total expansion cost of 185.68 billion yuan. Among them, Q4 of the company slowed down the pace of land acquisition, 32 new expansion projects, 5.387 million m3 of new construction area (accounting for 20% of the whole year), and the total expansion cost was 42.27 billion yuan (accounting for 23% of the whole year). The investment sales ratio of the company in 2021 is about 34.7%, which still has room for improvement compared with 40% of the monitoring indicators. The company has flexibility in the adjustment of land acquisition strategy in the future.
Investment advice
The company adheres to the strategic layout focusing on core cities and urban agglomerations, deeply cultivates national key development areas, and has abundant soil storage resources and reasonable layout. With the dual effects of the background of central enterprises and industry leaders, the net debt ratio and financing cost are at an excellent level in the industry. The company's land acquisition is relaxed, taking into account resource acquisition and profit guarantee, and the scale can be improved in the future. While consolidating the main business, the "two wings" business has made great progress. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.30, 2.46 and 2.65 yuan / share, corresponding to the current share price PE of 6.8, 6.4 and 5.9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Sales did not meet expectations, regulatory policies tightened beyond expectations, financing costs rose, profit margins fell, and the equity ratio of new projects decreased.
