In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases in the world has continued to decline, and the confirmed cases in a single day have fallen to less than one million. In terms of economy, the euro zone ZEW Economic Prosperity Index further fell to - 43 in April, and the Russian Ukrainian conflict and the resulting high inflation continued to form a significant drag; At the same time, the US inflation level also reached a new high. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI and core PPI increased to 6.5% and 10.0% respectively. Superimposed on the previous interest rate meeting minutes, it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50bp in May.
In terms of China's environment, the data released this week show that credit easing continues to advance, inflationary pressure has strengthened, and the growth of external demand is still resilient: first, the data of social finance and credit are significantly stronger than market expectations. In terms of structure, credit, off balance sheet financing and government bonds are the key to leading the increase of social finance. The increase of credit is mainly due to the contribution of short-term loans and bill financing of the enterprise sector, with a slight increase in medium and long-term loans, The credit expansion under the protection of policy still shows obvious supply driven characteristics, and the weak demand side is the reason for its poor structure; Secondly, the rise in gasoline and diesel prices partially offset the drag of pork prices on the month on month growth, adding to the rise in the tail, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI rebounded to 1.5%. The strength of commodity prices also weakened the drag of the decline in the tail on the growth rate of PPI, which was stronger than the market expectation. In view of the long-term strength of commodity prices due to geographical conflicts, the inflationary pressure was strengthened during the year; Finally, in terms of import and export, the resilience of export comes more from the high price, while the sluggish import is closely related to the weak domestic demand under the impact of China's epidemic. Although the high growth of trade surplus in the first quarter continues to support GDP, in the future, exports will gradually be subject to factors such as the weakening of overseas demand expansion, the slowing down of price boost effect and the reversal of order transfer effect, Imports will benefit from the gradual implementation of steady growth measures and the improvement of the epidemic situation. With the increase of the base of the superimposed trade surplus, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2022 will fall quarter by quarter, and even a negative contribution in a single quarter. In terms of policies, the management continues to introduce care policies to maintain stability and boost confidence. Although the interference of the epidemic has hindered the manifestation of the policy effect, there is no doubt that the determination of the management is obvious. These policies are expected to accelerate due to the cumulative effect after the epidemic is gradually controlled. At this time, the necessary confidence and patience are very important.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions fell again, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index peaked and fell. In the middle reaches, steel prices fell slightly and cement prices rebounded slightly. In the upstream, the price of thermal coal fluctuated and weakened, the price of coking coal and coke remained strong, the price of zinc in non-ferrous metals rose sharply, the price of aluminum decreased significantly, the price of copper and lead remained volatile, the price of precious metals rebounded slightly, and the price of crude oil continued to decline.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
