\u3000\u3000 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) (300755)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of RMB 7.430 ~ 7.600 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.36% - 53.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 674 ~ 691 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.61% - 85.16%.
Comments
The annual performance was of high quality and high growth, and the proportion of non-standard with high gross profit continued to increase
In 2021, the company is expected to realize a total operating revenue of RMB 7.430 ~ 7.600 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.36% - 53.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 674 ~ 691 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.61% - 85.16%, of which 21q4 company is expected to realize a total operating revenue of 1.458 ~ 1.628 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.66% ~ 29.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 ~ 110 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.2% ~ 108.4%, mainly due to:
At the product level, standard products have developed steadily, and the proportion of non-standard revenue is expected to rise to 20%. 1) mainly contribute to the revenue / the role of the drainage products: taking into account the high proportion of high-end wine and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor and other high-end liquor products, the steady development of high-end products determines whether the company's scale can continue to expand. In the case of the increasing differentiation of Baijiu industry, the high performance of high-end and high-end liquor, the excellent performance of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is also the key. Benefiting from the continuous expansion of Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) fidelity chain brand effect and the gradual implementation of the "700" strategy, the dynamic sales (volume) of the company's high-end standard products has improved, enhanced the drainage capacity of non-standard products, and laid a solid foundation for the steady growth of scale; 2) In terms of non-standard products that mainly contribute to profits / play a profit role: at a time when the hot sauce and wine still continues, the dividend released after the price increase in Diaoyutai in June 21 + the volume and price of lotus wine rise together under the condition of short supply + the increase of non-standard products of famous wine (new categories such as golden drunkard and Jinxi wine) = promote the revenue proportion of non-standard products to about 20%, and promote the growth of revenue and profit.
At the channel level, the store's volume and quality have increased, and the group purchase channel has continued to make efforts to lay the foundation for scale expansion. In terms of store quantity and quality, in 2021, the company continued to take provinces and regions as units, actively promoted the transformation of high-quality retail outlet customers into Huazhi famous wine warehouse, and the number of stores increased steadily; Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) stores have completed the iteration of version 3.0 upgrade + the implementation of "323 new regulations" and the digital management of chain stores, and the quality of stores has been steadily improving (the number of chain stores is expected to increase or exceed 300 in the whole year, and the revenue of the same store may increase); In terms of online business, since its launch, Huazhi preferred e-commerce platform has been in good operation, continuous iteration of functions, and continuous improvement of user experience and conversion rate; In terms of group buying business, the coverage of the core area of "700 project" has reached 100% in 2021. The company's marketing network system radiates the scope, and the proportion of group buying business is expected to increase rapidly (it is expected that the proportion of group buying and online channels will exceed 15%, while the proportion of traditional channels such as traditional supermarkets with weak profitability will continue to decline). The channel structure of the company has been continuously optimized, the customer stickiness has been further improved, the distribution capacity has been significantly improved, and it has made a great contribution to sales and profits.
Future highlights: simultaneous increase in volume and price of non-standard products + release of dividend from channel reform = performance or exceeding expectations
The company's performance is expected to exceed expectations due to the release of bonus from price increase of customized fine wine + the release of bonus from channel reform. The driving mechanism is as follows: the enhancement of channel and brand strength drives the volume of standard products - drives the revenue scale to exceed expectations, and the volume and price of customized fine wine rise together - drives the revenue and profit scale to exceed expectations.
Previously, the market generally believed that: 1) definition: since Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) is mainly derived from distribution business, Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) is a commercial circulation enterprise; 2) Products: since the dynamic sales of customized fine wine products are still being verified, the market believes that the future development of customized fine wine products will focus on volume increase + new product launch, while the contribution of price increase remains to be verified; 3) Channel: as the net increase of the company's stores has not increased rapidly in the past two years, and the company "pursues store quality", the market expects that the expansion speed of stores may be lower than expected, thus affecting the performance. We believe that: 1) definition: at present, the company has gradually focused on customized fine wine products (having terminal price pricing power and responsible for marketing and other matters). In fact, the company is essentially a fine wine service provider (a non-traditional trading company with brand operation ability); 2) Product: after the price increase of 21q2 Diaoyutai, the price increase bonus will be gradually released (it is expected to continue to be released in the next three quarters). At the same time, the contribution of new Lotus products to the profit side can also be expected; 3) Channel: in the future, the number of new stores of the company is expected to be stable at about 300-400 every year. Although it is not a rapid growth, the continuous improvement of single store revenue will ensure the high-quality growth of the company's performance end; In addition, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the company launched many reform measures for channels (launching the "323" new regulations, launching the "700" strategy, continuing to expand the scale of group buying team, landing the Tongzhou R & D center to undertake forensic science, etc.), and the reform dividend will also be released this year.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company's "high fidelity" product system and omni-channel sales network are its core competitiveness, and the volume of customized fine wine and continuous improvement of channels are the growth points, the company has high growth in the future. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.1%, 31.3% and 26.8% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 82.7%, 41.7% and 23.1% respectively; EPS is 1.6, 2.3 and 2.9 yuan / share respectively; PE was 30, 21 and 17 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand is expected to recover.
Risk tips: 1. Repeated epidemic situation leads to lower sales than expected; 2. Fidelity risk; 3. The effect of store expansion was less than expected.
