\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
Event:
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 6.3-6.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 23-27% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9-2.1 billion, an increase of 21-34% at the same time; The net profit deducted from non return to parent was RMB 1.9-2.1 billion, an increase of 22-35% at the same time.
Key investment points:
1. In 2021, the company's structure continues to be optimized, and its performance is expected to fall below the upper limit of the forecast range. In 2021, the company efficiently promoted the "four campaigns", achieved steady growth in sales revenue and continued to optimize product and regional structure. 1) From the perspective of product structure, the growth rate of the company's special a + product revenue is expected to exceed 35%, accounting for about 65% of the company's revenue. Among them, the revenue of series V accounts for about 10%; Fourth, the opening and opposite opening continue to maintain high growth; The new K series (K3, K5) and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) are mainly consumed in wedding scenes, which also contribute to the growth. 2) From the perspective of regional structure, the company overcame the impact of the epidemic situation in the province. From the performance of the previous three quarters, the traditional strong markets such as Huai\'an and Nanjing continued to grow steadily, while the weak markets such as southern Jiangsu, Yancheng and Taizhou also achieved high growth. We believe that the company will make a good start in the 14th five year plan, and the performance probability will fall at the upper limit of the forecast range.
2. Strive to "achieve the five-year goal ahead of schedule", and expect the company to continue to maintain high growth in 2022. The company will complete the stock repurchase on November 30, 2021. In the future, after the equity incentive is implemented, the brand potential energy and profit elasticity are expected to accelerate the release. In addition, at the annual development conference held at the end of 2021, the company set the tone of "seeking speed in good times, taking the lead in good words, and being able to be fast is fast". Considering the strategic demand of "completing the five-year goal ahead of schedule", the company's measures are expected to accelerate the implementation and continue to maintain high growth in 2022.
3. The company will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in the future. As for the long-term concerns of the market, such as unfavorable expansion outside the province and intensified competition in the province, we believe that even if we do not consider expansion outside the province in the future, the strengthening of weak areas and channel sinking in the province can also support the company's revenue to achieve rapid growth; At the same time, in the context of the continuous expansion of the secondary high-end price belt in Jiangsu market, it is optimistic that the company will continue to expand its revenue scale, and there is no need to worry too much about the competition in the province in the short term.
4. Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's product structure is excellent, and will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion dividend in the future. The good landing of equity incentives will also bring catalysis. We continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.66/2.08/2.64 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 35 / 28 / 22 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
5. Risk tips: 1) the repeated epidemic situation leads to the inhibition of consumption; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) the sharp fluctuation of the economy caused the price of Baijiu to slide; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
